Survivorship Bias

“Survivorship Bias” a common cognitive error made by people looking for a success formula.

Today I get to celebrate another year on this planet. Yay! I'm on my yoga mat 6,718 miles away from family - it has been that way since 2008. Pursuing my dreams and big life goals have come at a cost. For 9 years I have been living abroad and away from my family, their life experiences, losses and celebrations. This is my cost. Not being in the energy field of my family's strength and power. Sure, technology is a blessing, but it is no substitute for a hug.

In 2011, I posted on G+ all of the personal sacrifices I had to make in the early 00's in order to live the life of my dreams.

With all of the self-proclaimed social media, fitness et al gurus selling snake oil programs/advice etc I caution you to ask: Do they walk it and talk it - live and breathe it? What personal sacrifices/costs have they made? If they are big names - ask who is behind them pulling strings? Who's doing all the "grunt" work?

Most importantly school yourself and really understand Survivorship Bias. “Survivorship Bias”, is a common cognitive error made by people looking for a success formula. They try to learn and copy what the "winners" did but overlook the fact that many thousands have failed they may have used the exact same approach but did not come close.

Just because someone looks a certain way, exercises or eats a certain way, does not mean that if you follow their program, buy their stuff that you too will get the same results. Likewise, just because someone uses social media in a certain way and has achieved fame or business success, does not mean you will get the same success by following their formula.

e.g. Steve Jobs and Bill Gates dropped out of college and became billionaires. Does this mean that if you follow their example and drop out of college you will become a billionaire too?

e.g. Jim Collins' book, Good to Great sold nearly 3 million copies and shared the business practices common to 11 so-called “great” firms which had outperformed the stock market up to that point. Does this mean if you follow their "formula for success" that Jim Collins wrote about in his book, your firm will become great too? (Actually, if you invested in those 11 firms at the date the book was published in 2001 your stock portfolio would have underperformed the S&P 500 stock market index, and 2 of the 11 firms went on to financial ruin).

That's "Survivorship Bias"

You need to play the game to have any chance at winning, but beware of gurus trying to sell you "their Golden ticket". There are no guarantees.