Survivor Bias

Survivor Bias

In WW2, returning aircraft that had seen active combat sometimes limped home full of holes & damage.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

The initial response was to tweak the design, reinforce the damaged areas and send them back out.

Many would successfully return which seems to prove that the strategy was working.

Of course the somewhat counter-intuitive correct approach was to reinforce the areas of the plane without the bullet holes since the planes that were hit in those areas were the ones that didn’t make it back and couldn’t be evaluated.

I’m wondering if the modern and slightly less combative equivalent is quiet quitting & presenteeism.

The Institute for Public Policy and Research found that the cost of this to the UK economy in 2024 had increased by £25bn compared to 2018.

Presenteeism: UK’s Working-While-Sick Epidemic | Disability Rights UK


I think the modern workplace is at the stage whereby we’re still patching people up in the wrong areas and sending them back out to fly. We’re not really engaging with those that have already left to find out why and materially doing something about it. Nor are we seeking out people that are about to leave and really asking why.

As I wrote this, it was World Mental Health day (10th?Oct 2024) and the theme this year is ‘prioritising mental health at work’.

Nice sentiment perhaps but in the current economic climate, way too nebulous and impractical. In the private sector, the priority for most is to be or remain profitable in order to avoid redundancies.

Hitting those targets/goals/objectives will involve periods of stress and pressure. There’s nothing intrinsically unhealthy about that but when they are applied constantly, they go hand in hand with the risk of overwhelm and burnout.

Both of these are extremely costly.

So what could and should businesses do about this? You can’t just lower the targets and take the pressure off – the business wouldn’t survive.

Perhaps controversially, I don’t believe it’s the business’s responsibility to ensure the health and happiness of the employee anyway. I think that’s the employee’s responsibility – we’re not kids anymore and we’re not at school.

It is however, the business’s responsibility and that of its leaders, to create an environment that is physically and psychologically safe.

They should provide access to appropriate support & training for employees to perform their roles to high standards and?sustainably.

And most importantly of all, example setting and role modelling on how and when to access such things. People follow what they see far more than what they are told.

To go back to my aircraft analogy - here's how I fly and here's how I take the hits so I can land safely and go back out.

Just like when we were kids – ‘do as I say, not what I do’ was crap advice then and is crap advice now.

Managers – choose your actions more carefully than your words

Employees – be (very) choosy about whose examples you follow

Take care,

James


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Paul Griffiths

??Helping Market Research & Insight Agencies increase revenue ?? Proven growth strategies ??Helping Research & Insight Leaders increase research budgets through proven commercial strategies ??

4 个月

I really like this analogy James. Very powerful… Employers take the role of providing the positive environment, employees take responsibility for their own well-being. Feels empowering for all parties.

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Simon Fitall

Bringing high quality patient data insights to pharma/bio companies. Using novel business models to improve data ROI. Enhancing use of novel drugs in niche diseases.

4 个月

There is an interesting balance that many managers struggle with (I think). They need to keep their business going and so there are pressures that need to be applied to the entire team - themselves included. At the same time they need to create a working atmosphere that allows their team members the freedoms necessary to take care of themselves because the manager can't do it for them (nor is it their role to do so). In addition, the manager needs to find the time and space necessary to look after themselves, and these three goals will often be out of balance - and that is the truly difficult time. I believe that maintaining this balance is one of the hardest part of the manager's role and it is most certainly where coaching can play a very significant role - for the manager as well as the team members. Thanks for the article!

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