Surviving covid‘19’s impact on your business and your ability to deliver impact.

This year has been a year of fantastic change, of hype, of fear, of science and opinion. The advice that has been given from positions of authority have been misleading, helpful, ridiculous and often nonsensical.

I have had an early front seat for Covid 19’s forward charge from the days of November ‘19, through December and January ’20 as my businesses have large numbers of Chinese export. We also have an office in Shanghai with a young team that have felt the full blunt force of an extreme lockdown before the rest of the global company.

Bizarrely enough our team, clients and partners in China received some of the harshest restrictions and imposed industry hibernation that have had huge impacts on the Chinese economy. If you were to ask the locals in Shanghai however about their feelings on how the situation was handled, their response would be one of positivity and appreciation that there was such a swift and heavy handed approach. An approach that received international reproach as being archaic and draconian, it was this approach however that has ensured that the country’s GDP continues to grow.

There will not be a depression in China, let alone a recession even, they will continue to grow as a nation and still march onwards toward being the global number 1 economy probably a couple years sooner the forecasted.

One of the main things that has struck me through this process is the fiscal measures taken are probably the most capitalist world-wide, especially compared to the countries that are employing quantative easing. They have taken the approach that if you are not strong enough to survive, that your financials didn’t support a down turn then you are not competitive enough to continue. There have been no real bailouts or financial support, there has been some basic rent and rates subsidy but by in large it’s been a matter of pivot or die.

This has been the case in 2 main industries that we operate in Travel and Education.

In the UK the total deaths have stripped that of China, action taken and guidance given by our government has been fascicle on a number of occasions.

I for example have been wearing masks from a care package I received from my Chinese mother in law that was filled with N95 masks in January, in February my wife received a similar package from the provincial government in Xi’an that sent them out to all overseas Chinese.

In the UK however we are only now being told to wear masking in July, and only in shops and on transport, if you wanted to go to a bar, pub or gym however you don’t need to.

There have been different approaches throughout the world, there has been a plethora of different ways countries have tested, reported and accounted for covid’19 infections and deaths. Mostly this data serves as a good news story or a reason to justify a number of political decisions. I am not a scientist and therefore won’t comment on the validity of these result but, all I will say is that there is such a variety of methods for calculating the impact of covid’19 that it makes it difficult to compare like for like.

What I can make out however is that there have been two industries that are hardest hit, travel and education.

Covid 19 impacts: Travel industry

The travel industry has received some of its deepest wounds in years this past 6 months. The problems span from how to manage airports with so many people from all over the world interacting in such high quantities, all the way through to the financial and legal implications of restrictions on national and personal freedoms.

We have seen fleets of planes grounded, 30,000+ staff furloughed and facing redundancy. There have been insurance companies that have changed the goal posts on a number of occasions with what they will pay out on, items that should have been covered in policies have later on found not to be and therefore placing huge additional pressure on suppliers to cover the cost.

Customers have had a roller coaster ride of cancellations, changes to bookings, postponing of booking’s with each company having a different stand point. Across the industry there hasn’t been a standard that can be followed by all and the overall burden that has then been put back on to customers has regularly verged on being unfair at best.

There have been some businesses like our own that values partnerships and relationships over profits and thus has and continues to work very closely with all partners and customers to ensure the best result for all involved. This often requires hard work and flexibility on both sides and often takes longer then first hoped to get results but at least it is a route that allows for our integrity to shine through.

The civil aviation authority and ATOL have both had a difficult 6 months in 2020 with many applications and renewals being delayed and extended. The financial fitness tests have now been updated to reflect the uncertainty in the market and the difficulty of accurate forecasts.

This isn’t just based on customer confidence but also on what government and FCO guidance will provide as recourse if another wave or spike in covid ‘19 happens again. One thing is clear however is that very few customers actually know what ATOL covers and secures against, with many believing that it covers more then it does. Travel insurers therefore still have a large role to play in the bouncing back of the industry, this fills me with dread however for when was the last time you have heard of a generous insurance company.

There will be changes to number of air routes available and the number of carriers that will be operating in the rest of 2020 and into the early months of 2021. This could have the affect of heavily discounting prices or the opposite to increase the cost per seat, It’s my opinion though that market forces will win out and when faced with some money or no money cash flow will win out every time. The biggest concern for me is the carriers that will be over leveraged with debt along with holiday providers that could soon be in a position where they can’t service their debt moving forward and ultimately end up the way Thomas cook did.

There are good signs however, with vaccine development, with signs that confidence is still high, along with the desire and demand for travel still very much a reality. For people like myself that is used to getting vaccinations for a host of different things before I travel for work or pleasure this is just another thing to be mindful of.

Covid 19 impacts: Education sector

The Education sector is the other area that has been hit the most by covid’19.

There has been a spectrum of ways school communities have had to work through the ever changing advice, the poorly organised communication and the complete lack of consultation with front line educators.

We work with thousands of educators all around the world, our work through www.trueeducationpartnerships.com and www.globalschoolalliance.com enables me to have a direct feed into the heartbeat of educators attitudes to the situation.

The main theme has been one of frustration on unclear guidance, very last minute changes and expectations to pivot delivery at light speed. Educators have been expected to continue to provide academic and pastoral support to the children and parents of the nation in new ways using new forms of technology to facilitate.

Their have been key issues that are still unresolved when it comes to a “recovery curriculum” whether extra provision is a requirement, when would it be organised and budgeted.

What will the impacts be on exam results, on how they are graded? When will other options to take the exams could be? Will UCAS take predicted grades as a heavier weighting, will the 11+ still continue as planned? Will entrance exams still be a viable option seeing as their has been 6 months of disruption and home schooling.

In short is has been an absolute minefield for all involved to work through providing a quality education in such conditions.

There will be ongoing ramifications for the entrepreneurial community that supports the education sector along with the frontline educators themselves, that I believe we have only just started to see. The increased workload and pressure to catch up in academic year 20/21, with additional precautions and restrictions may push people too far resulting in a down turn in mental health.

Within the wider education sector with the move to online learning I predict we will see a change to the cost of education and the accessibility. I predict that the future of learning sits with the edu-preneurs and not the old institutions and that this generations game changers have the chance to have much larger positive impacts then ever before.

The key takeaway for me is that this is the time to step up and get stuck in. Growth and progression only happen outside of our comfort zones, many more people will be in that zone over the next 12 months. This will be a year of great learning and personal progression if the right attitude is taken to the challenge, if you are an Edu-preneur and feel that you can contribute then please reach out and share your story.

This is the time for our community to come together and build more opportunities for educators and students to have their next great leap forward.