“A survival guide for humanity”

Debriefing of the IPCC Synthesis Report

The sixth IPCC assessment synthesis report, the result of eight years’ work, reflecting the scientific consensus on the findings and on the actions to be taken, was published on Monday.

I have chosen to title it "A survival guide for humanity", to quote Antonio Gutteres, Secretary General of the United Nations. This is indeed how he describes the report, which should serve as a compass and an action plan.

Observations, projections, action, adaptation, state of mind: What are the takeaways?

An indisputable fact

Already 1.09?°C of warming has been reached (whereas the objective of the Paris Agreements limits warming to 1.5?°C.), mainly caused by greenhouse gas emissions from human activity.

And so, unsurprisingly, "it is likely that warming will exceed 1.5?°C during the 21st century": this confirms that we need to step up the pace not only to achieve mitigation (doing everything possible to limit warming), but also to adapt to climate changes (which does not mean giving up, to quote my last newsletter).

The harmful effects of global warming must be borne in mind, because when we talk about it, we mainly think about heat waves and extreme climatic events, but they also refer to "reduced" food security or "decreased" water security.

And there are already 3.3 to 3.6 billion people, that is almost half of humanity, living in places that are highly vulnerable to #ClimateChange.?

Reason in terms of a carbon budget

On a more technical level, reading the IPCC report confirms that we must reason in terms of a "carbon budget" (i.e., the maximum ceiling of CO2 emissions that we can afford to emit in order to stay below a given temperature).

If the budget were 500 billion tonnes of CO2, the probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C would be 50%. But (again, this is me adding it), this budget corresponds to... just 10 years of CO2 emissions at the current rate.

Another order of magnitude to remember, an additional one trillion tonnes of CO2 emitted, is 0.45?°C more warming.

But as things stand, i.e., without policy tightening, global warming of 3.2?°C (or at least within a range of 2.2?°C to 3.5?°C) is expected by 2100.

Of course, many commentators see (alas) "no surprises" in the IPCC report. Perhaps. But it is useful to remember that it simultaneously plays a role as a warning signal (Fran?ois Gemenne, a member of the IPCC, calls on scientists to become more involved in the public debate), and the more operational role of a toolbox.

We must not be paralysed by eco-anxiety, precisely because, as I like to say, "the time for action is now". So, what does the IPCC say in terms of actions to be implemented?

Strengthen financial flows and step up the pace further

Firstly, we need to strengthen financial flows - in other words, put more into financing the energy transition. Money is the sinews of war. It is a sine qua non for success.

And here, the IPCC indicates that an effort 3 to 6 times greater than the current resources applied is required.

Finally, the IPCC lists actions that can be taken now, establishing a common roadmap for all. Most of them cost less than €100/tonne of CO2 (the current European market price).

What also strikes me is the small number of actions listed. There is no need to ask too many additional questions. The evidence is before us: we can build on these clear actions for each sector.

In the energy sector: Reduce the use of fossil fuels, of course; widespread electrification; energy storage and efficiency; and improved integration of the whole energy system.

In transport: Sustainable biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, massive low-carbon electrification of electric vehicles (which implies advanced work on battery technologies, especially for heavy vehicles).

The IPCC has published an infographic that lists these actions and their impact (also existing translated in French by Libération in its very good summary paper).

As the IPCC also reminds us, accelerating action also means preparing to adapt to climate change. And so, we come back to that.

Yes, there is still time to modify the trend. Every gram of CO2 not emitted counts and we can all make that happen.

Personally, I am lucky enough to be able to do this at the level of the VINCI Group, and I will be back shortly with an update on the progress achieved through our initiatives.

The time for action is now.