Survival Analysis Reveals Temporal Dynamics of Economic Development.

I have submitted a new paper for review to an academic journal (first submission in 2024).

The paper investigates the efficacy of several machine learning models for survival analysis in predicting the time until various countries achieve the median GDP per capita of their respective clusters. This research delves into the dynamics of economic growth across 160 countries, employing a comprehensive sampling strategy and integrating information from various authoritative sources. The paper utilizes statistical techniques, particularly survival analysis, to provide a robust understanding of the temporal aspects of economic development.

The key findings of the paper are as follows:

• Survival analysis is a valuable tool for analyzing the temporal dynamics of economic development.
• Various machine learning models, including Cox, Kernel SVM, DeepSurv, Survival Random Forest, and MTLR, can effectively predict the time until a country reaches the median GDP per capita of its cluster.
• The MTLR model outperformed other models in terms of the concordance index (C-index).
• The results suggest that vulnerabilities and risks associated with the Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) are significant predictors of the time until a country reaches the median GDP per capita of its cluster.

The paper makes the following contributions to the literature:

• It provides a comprehensive review of the applications of survival analysis in economics.
• It investigates the efficacy of various machine learning models for survival analysis in predicting the time until countries achieve specific economic benchmarks.
• It identifies the key features of the MVI that are predictive of the time until a country reaches the median GDP per capita of its cluster.

The paper has implications for policymakers and researchers. For policymakers, the findings suggest that vulnerabilities and risks should be considered when formulating economic policies. For researchers, the findings provide a basis for further research on the relationship between economic development and vulnerability.

This is why I used this method to understand development:

The image shows a graph of the distribution of GDP per capita in 160 countries. The graph is divided into different clusters, each of which represents a different level of economic development. The cluster with the lowest GDP per capita is labeled "Low," the cluster with the next highest GDP per capita is labeled "Medium-Low," and so on.

The graph shows that the distribution of GDP per capita is not uniform. There is a long tail on the right side of the graph, which indicates that there are a few countries with very high GDP per capita. There is also a short tail on the left side of the graph, which indicates that there are a few countries with very low GDP per capita.

The graph also shows that the distribution of GDP per capita is different for each cluster. The cluster with the lowest GDP per capita has a much wider distribution than the cluster with the highest GDP per capita. This indicates that there is more variation in the level of economic development among countries in the lower-income clusters.

The graph is a useful tool for understanding the dynamics of economic development. It can be used to identify patterns in the distribution of GDP per capita and to compare the economic development of different countries.

Here are some specific things that you can learn from the graph:

• The level of economic development is not evenly distributed across countries.
• There is more variation in the level of economic development among countries in lower-income clusters.
• The distribution of GDP per capita is different for each cluster.

The Importance of State Capabilities for Economic Development

State capabilities are the ability of a state to effectively perform its functions. These functions include providing public goods and services, regulating the economy, and upholding the rule of law.

There is a growing body of evidence that state capabilities are important for economic development. Countries with higher state capabilities tend to have higher levels of economic growth and development.

I create a visualization of the Kaplan-Meier survival curve (above). The visualization shows that the survival probability for countries with CapState scores greater than or equal to 0.5931 is slightly higher than the survival probability for countries with CapState scores less than 0.5931. This suggests that countries with higher state capabilities may have a slightly higher chance of reaching or surpassing the median GDP per capita of their cluster.