Survey News! (Not so much)
Geoffrey Moore
Author, speaker, advisor, best known for Crossing the Chasm, Zone to Win and The Infinite Staircase. Board Member of nLight, WorkFusion, and Phaidra. Chairman Emeritus Chasm Group & Chasm Institute.
The problem with big executive surveys, especially in the tech sector, is that they announce the past as if it were the future. If you think their headlines are making news, you and your enterprise are already late for the train. Here’s why.
The ratio of leaders to followers is not really known, but it is somewhere between 1:5 and 1:20. That means that somewhere between 80 and 95 percent of all respondents to any survey are followers, not leaders. In the parlance of the Technology Adoption Life Cycle they are pragmatists or conservatives (Early Majority or Late Majority), not enthusiasts or visionaries (Innovators or Early Adopters). So when a survey announces the next big thing with, say, more than 60 percent of respondents calling it out, we are picking up this motion picture somewhere in the middle of the plot.
But here’s the real point. This is actually a really valuable time to calibrate a trend, and it is getting completely misrepresented by the claim that it represents the future. It does not. It represents the present. It is the means by which leaders can achieve that elusive yet valuable state of mind called a firm grasp on the obvious. This does not sound very rewarding until you realize that most truly egregious strategic mistakes are grounded in part in the very absence of this element.
So do not disregard surveys. Read them with interest. But when you meet a trend with which you are not familiar, do not think of it as a path to get ahead. Realize it is a signal from the universe that you have fallen behind.
That’s what I think. What do you think?
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Geoffrey Moore | Zone to Win | Geoffrey Moore Twitter | Geoffrey Moore YouTube
You are right - survey results are always interesting but should be read with caution and more to confirm present state as you say. I recently saw a survey not predicting the future as such, but it compared what the leaders in the industry was doing relative to the poor performers. It gave a good indication of what type of trend/technology/method had the most potential to work.??
Virtual CMO and Go-to-Market Builder for Video Tech Companies
5 年Excellent discussion, thanks for stimulating it Geoffrey. My additional observation is that the very nature of how long most surveys take to prepare, e.g. question formation, internal debates on the objective, etc. means by the time you go into the market with it, perhaps the need for the data (or value of the data) has already been reduced. By the time the data is culled and analyzed, and in a fast moving dynamic market, could mean the total end to end latency of the process will put the information last in line for relevancy. E.g. reporting on what’s happened, not what is yet to be happening. This doesn’t mean surveys are a complete waste. But it does mean a few astute real time industry observations could obviate the need for a formal process which ultimately may do nothing more than describe what can already be seen in hindsight by the time the entire survey process is completed.
Striving to make the world richer, safer and more enjoyable through Data & AI
6 年Geoffrey Moore surveys are probably good to point out what’s become (ing) mainstream and has crossed the chasm.. with that lens they are informative
Results-driven integrated marketing expert that elevates companies' positions and rapidly drives engagement and revenues.
6 年Valuable insights Geoffrey. It seems many companies have latched on to buzz words such as AI, machine learning and natural language processing however most are only starting to dip their toes into those ponds. These waters are a bit muddy and must be entered with a great sense of responsibility for data protection as we use disruptive technologies to enhance the customer experience.