Surplus Generation 2037

We looked in the articles at two possible power generation patterns (high solar, Dunkelflaute) that could occur in 2037. The following wind and solar PV generation capacity might be installed in Germany in 2037:

Consequently, the power generation could look like this on a sunny and moderately windy summer day in 2037:

We also know that power generation and power demand (load) always have to be balanced in the electric power system. The red curve shows the load on a sunny day in 2037 and it is quite clear that there is a surplus of power generation during the day and a light deficit in the evening. This looks perfect for short-term storage. To be analysed in a later article.

To analyse the flexibility needs of a system I introduced the concept of residual load. For our analysis we calculate the residual load with the very simple formula:

??Residual Load = Load (red line) -Solar PV -Wind onshore -Wind offshore

On the left-hand side, you see the picture where I visualised the residual load for one point in time: 12:00 hours. At night the residual load shows that we need more power generation than the renewables provide. Now it gets interesting: during the day the residual load is negative! That means we have a (high) surplus of generation.

On the right-hand side, you can see the residual load as a curve.

To make it easier to read, here is the residual load graph enlarged:

Residual Load: During the night you see a relatively small deficit. I will verify in a later article if this can be covered by battery storage. During the day with the peak just before noon there is a huge surplus of power generation, mainly from solar PV. If you do not want to curtail (or “throw away”) the energy you need to increase the load, store the energy and so on, also to be also analysed later. ?

Power Ramp Rate: The black lines indicate the power ramp rate of the generation. In the morning from 8:00 hours to 9:00 hours when the sun comes out it is about 40 GW per hour. That means that in the future power system must be able to react fast to make best use of the energy. In the evening the generation decreases with a slightly lower power ramp rate.

Conclusion:

On this day in 2037 we have quite stable wind generation and a good amount of solar power. We have much more energy generation than load and we will have to make good use of it. To be analysed later.

Personal Note: Providing enough affordable flexibility in the system (load and generation) will be the biggest challenge on our path to rely on solar and wind power. I think, I said it before.