Surfing a Wave?

Election Day 2018 is just six months away and we are beginning to wonder what might appear on the political horizon. Before reviewing, here are a few numbers election watchers must remember:

Landscape. Democrats need to pick up 23 Republican seats to take over power in the U.S. House and two to assume power in the U.S. Senate.

• There currently are 2 GOP vacancies in the House (Texas’ 27th and Ohio’s 12th congressional districts) where special elections are scheduled before November. Right now, neither seat is expected to change parties.
• Senate Democrats are defending 26 seats, with just 9 GOP seats in cycle. In 2016, President Donald Trump won 10 (Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin) of the 26 Democratic states.

History. While the benefits of incumbency—name recognition, fundraising prowess—often propel lawmakers into a new term (since World War II, 93% of House incumbents and 80% of Senate incumbents have won reelection), the president’s party doesn’t normally fare well in midterm elections. Since World War II, the party holding the White House has lost an average of 25 seats in all midterm House elections. Additionally, the president’s party has lost seats in 19 of the last 26 midterm Senate cycles. National Journal (see sidebar) looked back at midterm elections since 1966 and found when presidential approval ratings were lower than 50% at the time of a midterm election, the party in the White House lost an average of 40 House seats. The last weekly Gallup poll had President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 42%.

Democrats are counting on history to carry them into the majority in both houses of Congress. So far, most analysts favor that view, at least when it comes to the House. Of the top 10 most competitive Senate seats, Republicans hold 3 and Democrats hold 7. President Donald Trump won 2 of the 3 toss up GOP states, Arizona and Tennessee, in 2016. President Trump also won 6 (Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, and West Virginia) of the 7 states where Democratic senators are most vulnerable.

Right now, it is anyone’s guess whether Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) will be majority leader in January 2019, or if Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will command the floor. Tuesday’s primary vote selected GOP challengers in West Virginia and Indiana which were welcomed by President Trump and GOP leadership.

In the lower chamber, CNN released an updated list of vulnerable House seats on Monday, April 30. The list of GOP districts in trouble has grown to 78 and is nearly double the 40 seats in play for Democrats. CNN has 19 GOP seats listed as pure toss ups and 9 as leaning toward or likely to turn Democratic. If Democrats hold their vulnerable seats, and take those 28, they’ll be in the majority. If they also pick off half of the 25 Republican seats that CNN has leaning GOP, it’s a wave election.

The CNN analysis is not an anomaly. In its late April House race update, Cook Political Report listed 84 competitive Republican districts and just 26 Democratic ones. The University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato is even harder on the GOP. In his late April review, he listed 85 vulnerable Republican seats and only 16 Democratic ones.

Even the benefits of incumbency are likely to be dwarfed by Democratic enthusiasm as well as the fact that many of these districts saw split tickets in 2016. Hillary Clinton won 25 of Sabato’s 85 vulnerable House GOP districts 2 years ago. 16 of those seats are vulnerable even though there is an incumbent running. If Democrats can manage to pick off those 25 seats and no others, they’ll have a narrow majority. If Democrats can win half of the remaining Republican House seats where there actually is no incumbent, 2018 would be a wave election.

As we have noted in the past, Democrats also are still much more enthusiastic about voting in this fall’s election. According to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 66% of Democratic voters have a high level of interest in voting in November while only 49% of Republicans do. As CNBC noted, “[I]n 2010, when Republicans seized the majority in the House during President Barack Obama's first term, showed that 66% of GOP voters had a high level of interest, while 49% of Democrats said as much.”

One thing still going for the GOP is money. After the first quarter, Republican campaign committees had $20 million more cash on hand than their Democratic counterparts. The GOP committees have raised more than $345 million since the beginning of the 2018 cycle; Democratic committees have raised just $299 million. The question our readers should ask is, “how much of a cash advantage would a Republican need to surf a wave?” The current 15% advantage might be enough to buy a bigger surfboard (i.e. more tv advertising), but likely not enough to avoid a wipeout by a monster wave.

Additionally, even though RealClearPolitics has not found one poll this year where Republicans are ahead of Democrats in the generic congressional ballot, this question still is not yet a reliable indicator of what will happen on Nov. 6. In April 2002, when pollsters asked which party they preferred to lead Congress, Democrats were about seven points ahead of Republicans. Republicans picked up 8 House seats and 2 in the Senate six months later. In April 2010, the generic ballot question generally favored Republicans by a few points, but a handful of surveys actually indicated a Democratic advantage at that point. Democrats eventually lost 63 seats in the lower chamber and 6 in the Senate.

Another unknown: there still are 8 redistricting cases winding their way through the courts.

The results of these cases, if decided before November, could have a significant impact on the House outcome.

No matter what happens in that litigation, future congressional maps will look a lot different since Democrats are poised to pick up a few governors’ mansions. Only 9 Democratic governors are up for reelection and five of those races are considered competitive. That compares to 26 Republican seats in cycle, 9 of which are considered vulnerable according to Cook Political Report. Most of the 14 toss-up governors’ races, which are in Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are in purple states. The governors’ impact on redistricting after the 2020 U.S. Census will matter.

Primary season has started. Texas held its contest on March 6, Illinois voters went to the polls on March 20. Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia and Ohio took place on May 8. Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, and Pennsylvania (May 15); and Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky (May 22) all will hold primaries this month. Still, 6 months is a long time. This race is too close to call, but Democrats are gaining momentum by the day.