Supply Outpaces Seasonal Average While Demand Lags

Our stalled residential sales market continues. New listings and new contract signings last month decreased year over year.

On a year over year basis, contract signings were down 13.7 percent and new listings were also down 10.9 percent.

When compared to the ten-year seasonal average, the data shows an even more discouraging story.

Against the seasonal average, contract signings were down 11.78 percent while new listings were up 7.3 percent.

This marks the tenth consecutive month in which monthly contract activity is below the 10-year rolling seasonal average.

Unit the rate environment changes or prices decrease to offset the high rates, contract activity will remain depressed.

While I expect transactions to increase as we move further into spring, I do not expect market activity to match last year, or the seasonal average.

It is becoming increasingly unlikely that interest rates will decrease at any point this spring and just as unlikely that sellers will cut asking prices.

This will lead to the best inventory being scooped up quickly and at or above the asking price, while the rest of the market remains stalled.

Two trends worth keeping an eye on are the increasing transactions of all cash deals above the $2M price point in the condo market, and the listing success metric.

Right now, listing success is only at 27%. That means for every listing that came to market three months ago, only 27% have gone into contract. This marks the twentieth consecutive month in which it has been below the seasonal average.