Supplement 9 Feb 25 - Step change?

“High inflation in Britain has not been vanquished and it is more likely to overshoot than undershoot Bank of England forecasts over the medium term, BoE interest rate-setter Catherine Mann said on Wednesday (November 13th 2024)?

Mann cast the lone vote against cutting borrowing costs at a meeting of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee last week which decided by an 8-1 margin to lower the Bank Rate to 4.75% from 5%, and she also opposed an initial rate cut in August.” - Reuters, reporting on the “lone hawk” that was Catherine Mann at the last meaningful meeting of the Bank of England that was accompanied by a quarterly updated forecast and monetary policy report.

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Welcome to the Supplement - as we process one of those weeks that really makes you question some fairly deeply held beliefs. Auctions continue to be mixed, with a fair amount of what looked like overpriced stock and some failures, but still plenty seemed to sell too high especially in the new world of 5% additional SDLT (I swear half the buyers haven’t even clocked it yet, but really that should be no surprise. The air must be blue around completion statement day).?

This week’s deep dive sees me go into the Bank of England monetary policy committee meeting from this week, their 0.25% cut, and how the vote broke down - and what that means for predictions going forward when it comes to interest rates, swap rates and gilt rates.

In the real time slot - Chris and the Property Market Stats are right back to full speed. We get to ask that question that we love to know the answer to - What is currently happening in the UK property market?

We have some month-on-year comparisons to consider as January’s data is now complete for Chris:

+ Listings in Jan ’25 up 12.9% on Jan ’24

+ Gross Sales in Jan ’25 up 19.7% on Jan ’24

+ Net Sales in Jan ’25 up 29% on Jan ’24

+ UK House Prices (on Sales Agreed) – 3.6% up on Jan ‘24

For the week - listings at 34.9k - seeing the year at 12% higher than the 2017-19 average. 12.1% reductions compared to the long-term average of 10.6%, so more stock means more reductions (both relatively and absolutely) in an effort to get things sold.

Gross sales were right up - 27.5k, 37% higher than 2017-19 levels. Fall throughs were down to 22.5%, lower than the long-term average, so the market looks stable. With all that in mind, net sales look equally good at 32% higher than the 2017-19 average year to date thus far.

Jnauary’s ￡/sqft data was in and ￡342/ft compares favourably with ￡330/ft in January 2024. If it feels a little rudderless at the moment, that’s because perhaps it is……..the market will need to make up its mind on the direction of travel when the next couple of months’ figures drop in!

Chris deserves a mention because he’s more prolific than “just” this epic tome he releases weekly on the UK property market - he comes up with some great stats on a regular basis. Drop him a like, subscribe, and all the rest of it and some kind words for his content creation. If you are in the industry and want a ghost writer - that’s his core business - give him a shout. The article gets published on the Property Industry Eye website, and the video on his YouTube channel.

We segue from the real-time UK property market to Macro, seamlessly as usual. Halifax took their turn at a House Price Index. Then my favourite PMIs, telling us more about the real-time economy and the private sector sentiment and viewpoints - followed by the Bank of England BBA rate report, crossing a downside threshold this month - and then you know the rear is brought up by the gilt and swaps markets, of course.

The Halifax House Price Index then. They slid out a positive January at 0.7% increase (seasonally adjusted) for house prices. This caused Halifax to fire up the band, as they now passed their previous record for the price of a house in the UK. No mention of inflation, of course.?

Their annual growth slipped to 3%, though, as they did start 2024 with a bang in spite of their poor predictions for the year. The Halifax Head of Mortgages recognises what you’d expect her to - market resilience, and the stamp duty reintroduction deadline “probably” driving some transactions. No incentive like a tax break ending, let’s face it.

She suggests mortgage rates will hover between 4% and 5% in 2025, which wouldn’t see gilts moving far from where they are today. There will be a fair few that believe we can again go below 4% as we did for a chunk of 2024, after Thursday’s Bank of England vote. She also mentions affordability, as her contractual obligation, you would think, but this time seeks to focus on lack of supply being the true driver of this market.

Northern Ireland still wins the battle of the devolved nations, with 5.9% being the Halifax year-on-year figure, well ahead of Wales in second at +3.6%. It’s a quiet report month for Halifax as they say little more than that.

The PMIs are always richer in content, and I’ll start with the Services as by far the biggest contributor to the overall economy. The Flash number at the end of Jan was 51.2, which was an improving number (a post-budget high) - but this was a false flag, as we settled down to 50.8 as more data came in. December’s Services PMI was 50.9, so it was instead another slip downwards. That fired up the misery machine (and the press jumped at it as so often, of course) - the reality is this is an economy in the now that is clinging on to growth by the fingernails.

So where did the Services PMI pitch the headlines: New work declines for the first time since October 2023; renewed downturn in order books, marginal output growth in January, fastest reduction in employment for four years. Four years - and what a four years that is. Ouch.

The heart to be taken from this report is that the changes upwards or downwards are very much at the margin, but this does feel a lot like the second half of 2023 - where of course we had a technical recession, but the real story was that the economy was going sideways at a rate of knots. There’s a difference, however - in 2023 you could blame inflation being well above target. That’s not where we are today - above target, sure, but within the “acceptable range” (in the UK we use 1.5%-2.5%, in the US they use 1% - 3% which is a bit wiser to be honest).

What did their Economics director have to say? Stagflation conditions (bit strong with inflation being where it is today, but there’s no rule for how high, or not, that inflation has to be - stagflation is poorly defined) - and that treacle feeling does justify what the reports are saying, for sure. Challenging business environment. Input cost inflation up 5 months in a row to its highest since April ‘24.

Rising salary payments (sharply, is the phrase that was used) and suppliers were highlighted as passing on the forthcoming increase in Employers’ national insurance contributions (and everyone worth their salt knows that that’s just inevitable). Tim Moore (said Economics Director) points out that the near-term UK economic outlook remains tilted to the downside. Here’s some more reality though - risk aversion and subsequent cutbacks - making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. Tech services spending is “resilient” as winning a small area in the global AI land grab remains very attractive for larger corporations.

Expectations for the year ahead also dropped, with optimism the lowest since December 2022 - when we were still reeling from the Lettuce, that’s right. The report was published before the Bank vote, and whilst the result was almost a known known, the way it came together wasn’t. Thus - elevated interest rates (compared to where we were a month ago) look vastly different. Recruitment brakes (shrinking workload and rising payroll being the two dominant factors) were put on, and - completely unsurprisingly - leisure and hospitality indicated the sharpest rate of decline.

So - manufacturing was a tiny bit the other way. The Flash was 48.2 and the print ended at 48.3. This is still less positive, because it is the wrong side of 50, just to be clear. The roundup in the report highlights small companies feeling it hardest (a good example of this in retail was the revelation that Next would have to find an extra ￡70m to pay the extra national insurance tax this year, but had made ￡1bn profit - so that was 7% of last year’s profit to them, whereas the percentages may well look a lot starker in smaller companies).?

A pickup is needed and again it isn’t expected in short order. Construction is now joining the doldrums, in an immediate and sharp way. We don’t get a construction flash number, and there was a pretty big surprise to the downside as the expectation was another print at the 53 sort of level, as we have been seeing - instead we got a shock as the print was 48.1.

It’s been nearly a year since a print under 50 - Feb 2024 - and all types of construction saw an output reduction (civils, commercial, residential). A new downturn in order books, and cost inflation at a 21-month high. The same story across sectors, it seems.

Worse than this, the biggest loser was resi - the fastest fall for 12 months, blaming “subdued market conditions”. The key word is “caution” - which is of course, animal spirits and confidence driven. Delayed decision making means the lowest expectation for business activity in 15 months, and we had another report of highest purchase price inflation since April 2023 - due to “rising energy, fuel and wage costs”.?

As an aside, the price cap for April is accelerating at an uneasy rate - the 1% prediction is now up to more like 5.5% or so for April’s cap as recent wholesale prices have been rocketing week-on-week. Again - not congruent with our 2% inflation target……

So - we are back to the world where Services just about allow the UK economy not to slip into recession, and goodness knows what happens if they slip below the watershed. It’s an ugly set of circumstances. January’s news was broadly horrible, though, and perhaps Feb’s PMIs will be more positive than these as Rachel Reeves’ “turnabout” and tacit torpedoing of net zero will have an impact.?

I do get the feeling, as an another aside, as time goes on that when you look at the stark choice - that either Labour are ignorant of what policy has done and is doing to the private rental sector since 2015, or know and don’t care/are in active support of this (hang the consequences) - that the latter is becoming my more preferred view. We had the news - that was a surprise - that 2028 for new tenancies at EPC “C” is back on, with 2030 being the deadline for all existing tenancies - and the price cap being raised to ￡15k. We’ve stayed woefully under informed on this “initiative” for over half a decade now, and I still remain unconvinced, but after driving a truck through net zero last week with the Heathrow announcement (or re-announcement, if you like), it’s all back on when it suits the larger agenda is how I would describe it.?

This is one more reason for landlords to get out, or to not get in (which has been a bigger problem) - and my (factual) favourite argument about price elasticity of demand, and what gets passed on to the tenant (60-80% of all cost increases) once again needs wheeling out. Miliband talks like someone who only understands property south of the Watford Gap, but not as far out as the extremes in Kent, for example.?

I simply am left thanking the Labour Party for guaranteeing my pipeline of supply in 2028-2030 if they are pressing on with this, alongside a potential new commitment to renewing energy certificates every 5 years rather than 10. I’d score your Cs now and batten down the hatches so you can catch the new stock, after the RRB fuss dies down.?

As with the Renters’ Rights Bill, there will be a healthy slice of landlords that don’t know this is coming - the Government AI investment will, however, easily allow issuing of penalty notices for EPCs in let property - or you would think so, anyway. Match the name on the council tax register with the land reg - doesn’t match, match EPC against the register - doesn’t stack up, then send to a human to work out whether to press a button to issue a penalty notice. I’m not a coder, but from some of the things I’ve seen from AI already, that really wouldn’t be that hard. Doesn’t mean it will happen, of course……

That leads me to the BBA mortgage rate. Not related to the Bank meeting this week - this is the reversion rate that’s being paid, on average, by people who are outside of a fixed term mortgage. That number absolutely inched down under 7.5% for the first time since June 2023, printing 7.49%. The series high of 8.07% in July 2024 has passed, and the average of 5.75% between 1995 and 2025 is over-influenced by the ZIRP period of course.

That’s January’s number, and the feel is that February’s will likely be lower again. Sliced into the DMP data - the decision maker panel data - the output prices reported in here were up 3.8% which is unchanged from last month - with expectations up at 3.9% now, and CPI inflation expectations up from 2.8% to 3% as everyone catches on to Rachel’s budget new world having to be sorted before any mega-projects “save the day”.?

Wage growth expectations are 3.9% for the year, and the breakdown of the “how to cope with the budget” question shows:

62% accepting lower profit margins

56% putting prices up

53% employing fewer people

38% paying lower wages than they otherwise would have done.

So - there’s who pays for it. The firms first of all, but only just ahead of all of the customers of the firms - only just ahead of the people who don’t get jobs on the back of all of this - which is quite far ahead of those who get lower pay rises than they otherwise would have done. Thank goodness tax wasn’t put up on working people.

Anyway, enough. Let us not take the shine off a very acceptable week for the gilt and swap yields. The 5y gilt opened at 4.24%, and decayed until the Bank MPC meeting as the writing was on the wall for a 0.25% cut. Thursday’s close was 4.18% as the cut had been largely priced in, although my expectation after the way the vote broke down was a larger drop in those yields to be honest. Friday changed very little and the weekly close at 4.176% was pretty orderly for an MPC meeting week. We accept all down weeks on the yields with open arms.

The swap closed Thursday at a pleasing 3.846%, which is only 13 bps ahead of where it was 1 year ago, as we came off a relative low in the yields in January. This stability is most welcomed and on my metrics, 5.85% for ltd company no-fee 5-year fixed sees investment grade yield at 8.36% on a vanilla BTL, gross (allowing for a 30% cost of delivery, before financing costs).?

These gilt movements can be explained - or not - as we go into the Bank of England report, which needs significant detail to understand whether this week really changed anything on the predictions front for interest rates for the quarter, year and 5-year period - where we are interested for multiple reasons, of course.

So - quick revision. 8 Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meetings per year, where base rate is discussed and voted upon. Emergency meetings if ever needed - there is provision for that of course. Only 4 of those meetings are accompanied by a full MPC report with refreshed data - Central bankers don’t like to hurry, remember, but the air of stability is the MOST important part of their job - a Donald Trump style volatility approach isn’t conducive to big investments, because big investors don’t like volatility, mostly. (unless that’s how they make their money, of course).

This is one of the quarterly meetings with the full report - and most importantly, it updates forecasts. The one you are likely to have heard about is the revised growth forecast downwards. As I said in this week’s teaser, the only surprise for me was that it took this long for the world to catch on, although the past few years have seen the big organisations take even longer to catch on.

It takes time and effort to get into the meat of reports like this, and the media prefers to do what it is told to do in press releases and soundbites. This report, instead, contains in my view evidence that the budgetary changes “in anger”, because of course they were already KNOWN about in November’s MPC report, truly represented a near-term shock to the economy.?

Let’s just zoom out a moment. IF you believe you are doing the right thing, this is actually quite clever. Spend the first 12-18 months doing everything unpopular, then turn your hand to winning the next election, and pressing the incumbency advantage home (and there is an advantage unless you’ve had a genuine crisis - GFC, pandemic, ERM exit, winter of discontent - that basically summarises the reasons for the changes of Government for the past 5 decades). But the measure of this as far as a Bank of England near-term forecast goes is significant.

Come November 2024, bearing in mind we are asking then about a forecast a few months ahead, the Bank believed that the annualised rate of growth in GDP in Q1 2025 would be 1.4%. Today, they believe it will be 0.4%. Bearing in mind that in Q2 2024 the economy grew 0.5%, this represents net growth in GDP since Labour were elected of -0.1%.

That’s a hell of a revision. What we don’t get is a commensurate revision upwards in the medium term - instead 0.1% lower in 2026, and 0.2% higher in 2027 compared to the November forecasts. That’s an economic loss of 0.7% of GDP.?

So what? Well, that’s ￡19bn of economic output. 38% (40% if you prefer round figures) would come back in Government revenue one way or another, so that’s ￡7.22bn of money that needs to be found (or dare I say is added to the Black Hole). But it is 1% in 2025, with “jam tomorrow”, so it’s actually ￡10.26bn in 2025.

I’ve been saying for some weeks that the OBR revised forecast, from which Reeves MUST balance her fiscal rules, would be revised down come March. This revision from 1.4% to 0.4% is so significant that it could well leave Rachel needing to find ￡10bn of cuts “from the future” in the Spring Statement. Now let me give a steer on this. IF these were CUTS, rather than anything else, then it could send a positive message to the international markets. It might even pay for itself. IF RR and the Labour party believe they will outperform on growth, those cuts would never even need to happen if they were slated for 2029 and beyond. This is the skill, the game of fiscal rules; take from the “new future” that appears every forecast period, because it might well never need to happen. It’s all a bit silly really, but it is the “worst system apart from all of the others”, at this time - similar to capitalism, or democracy.

All the other revisions were miserable too in the Bank report. Inflation 2.8% this quarter rather than the predicted 2.4% - 3% for 2026 Q1 and 2.3% for 2027 Q1 (that looks hopeful, to be honest). All revised upwards. Apart from the critical number - do not understate the importance of this.?

The inflation prediction in 3 years’ time is 1.9% in 2028 Q1. This is based on the market path of interest rates (which before this meeting was down to about 4% in 3 years time). This is where a bit of a circular reference or infinite loop kicks in - because the result of this meeting then influences the market path of rates (although often not significantly). All other economic news then continues to influence the market path until the next meeting with revised forecasts.

When this inflation prediction is between 1.5% and 2.5%, the Bank is - according to their remit set - doing its job adequately. This being below 2% suggests there is room for perhaps one more cut than the market expects.?

However - the Bank rate which the Bank forecasts (yes, really) - was revised sharply upwards in this forecast as well. Their expectation was 4.6% for Q1 (which makes sense - up until Feb 6th it was 4.75%, and now for the rest of the quarter it will be 4.5% - or put another way, they don’t expect another cut at the next meeting in 6 weeks time - or even if they do, it is nearly the end of the quarter anyway). They now forecast 4.2% by 2026 Q1 (in line with my forecast for the year), 4.1% by 2027 Q1 (so the cut from 4.25% to 4% would happen in 2 years’ time), and then terminal base rate STILL at 4% in 2028 Q1.

Get your head around that. That’s the new Bank expectation for the rate movements - even slower than the last time they modelled it. This is interesting, and also not congruent with their most recent survey data from their Market Participants survey - who currently believe that on average, that R* or the equilibrium base rate is down at 3.5%. As a reminder this is the level at which the economy does not expand or contract.

Rounding up the ratcheted bearishness in the Bank forecast - they also expect unemployment up at 4.5% this quarter, and to hold there for a year or so (my expectations are worse, actually, nearer to 5% by Q1 2026) - then they expect 4.8% in 2027, and 4.8% to hold there. I would expect that to have started to right itself by then, but this will depend massively on the minimum wage crank for 2026 since the Government of whatever colour seems to be largely committed to ramping this up as quickly and aggressively as possible, without regard to youth unemployment results and similar.

So - overall, this bears out what I have been suggesting about the importance of March’s statement. Reeves’ misery is nowhere near over, and it will be hard to keep up levels of positivity for the next couple of months until her next big test. But she needs to. Will the OBR follow the Bank of England - they will have to be in the same ballpark, although they are always independent forecasts. I’d be surprised if they don’t talk……

OK. I wanted to get into the meat of the size of the change - particularly the massive shift in growth expectations. It has hit the headlines somewhat, but the focus has been on the growth rate for 2025 (now expected to be 0.75% by the Bank), rather than the quantum of the shift downwards from 1.4% to 0.4% within 3 months, when the forecast was for only a few months in advance in the first place. A truly huge adjustment which only comes on the back of an economic shock - simple as that.

There’s one more technical explanation needed to give the rest of this week’s Supplement the proper context. For this, indulge me as I treat you to the voting history of Catherine L Mann - external member of the Committee, who I have previously described as the “hawkiest hawk” - someone who wants to keep rates up when others think they should come down.

As with all the externals, Dr Mann is highly decorated. Harvard, MIT, chief economist at the OECD, worked at the Fed. Now - generally, Dr Mann votes like an American central banker. She is not scared of chunky moves upwards in the rates when needed. When we were inching rates up, 0.25% or 0.5% of the time (our only 0.75% move was when “good ole Lechuga” allowed that miserable budget to be released) - Mann was voting for 0.5% and 0.75% rises quite often. She thought we should hit 5.5% (and I agreed with her) - she voted 5 times in a row to go to 5.5%. She also voted to hold when we cut in August 2024 - and this has been her first vote for a cut since she first voted in September 2021.

Now in fairness, that might not be quite as hawkish as it sounds. There’s no doubt rates at that point in the cycle needed to go up - there’s certainly no reasoned argument against it. However, this meeting, she proved she isn’t scared of chunky moves downward, either. She joined her near-opposite, Dr Dhingra, in voting for a 0.5% cut in the base rate.?

Dr Dhingra believes that the constraint on growth that’s been put on the economy by having rates above the equilibrium needs fixing, and has done for a while. In contrast to Mann, Dhingra only voted for 5.25% 3 meetings in a row and never agreed with 5.5%. She’s voted cut for the last 9 meetings in a row, and this time voted for a 0.5% cut.

These seem unlikely bedfellows, but bedfellows they were - the only 2 to vote for a 0.5% cut in the rates. I had some interesting exchanges on Thursday afternoon from those who “knew” this was a more significant meeting than many that have come before it - hoping for a bit of a tumble in the gilt and swap yields, and the base rate following “the conversion of Mann”.

Let’s not get carried away. Dr Mann clearly votes and votes big when the direction of travel is, in her opinion, clear. That’s all we really learned. The gilts did NOT make the move I expected (just one more day when I’m glad I’m not a bond trader) on the back of all of this, holding up steadily (although they have come right back into line with my suggested range of reason).?

So - does this mean rates WILL fall much faster than expected? After I’ve been rubbishing JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and the likes for predicting 5 or 6 cuts this year? There will be plenty of getting carried away, I have no doubt. My 4.25% by the end of the year “looks in trouble”. Let’s circle in on a couple of things.

Firstly - I hate being wrong, but in this instance, I will gladly accept it as long as the rate is BELOW what I’ve predicted! It would benefit me rather significantly, but as often discussed - I don’t talk my own book. I try to predict what I think will happen.

Secondly, let’s look at what the Chief Economist (who is fairly hawkish, but never wanted to go to 5.5%) said. His voting record is pretty strong - in terms of predicted powers. Everything he voted for, down to the quarter percent, was what we did on the way up to 5.25%. He didn’t agree with the August cut - he preferred to hold - but he did with the November cut, and with this one. A fair yardstick, and a cautious voter, as one might expect given his position.

He spoke on Friday after Thursday’s meeting. What were the highlights picked out in the media from this speech:

“UK can’t say “job done” on fighting inflation”

“Stronger wage growth justifies caution on rates”

“Stubborn inflation may hold back rate cuts”

“We can’t cut rates rapidly if inflation lurks”

“Bank of England chief economist says some colleagues “rushing” to cut rates”

I think you get the picture. On the subject of “if” inflation lurks - it lurks. We can all see it, I’m sure - and we know we need to get through April (with energy now pushing upwards) and the employers NI rise. This is a 3% world, as I’ve said, and I see inflation above 3% this year - and no news at this time is changing that. Mann’s argument - it seems - is “live with 3%, that’s where it is, and get on with trying to help with growth” - not a terrible argument at all.?

Does this mean she’s guaranteed to vote downwards on March 20th? Yes, I think so, pretty much, pending any really major news. So is Dhingra. Pill is surely guaranteed to vote hold, after that chat. I suspect Lombardelli, the deputy Governor, and Bailey, will also vote hold. Alan Taylor - I’m still on the fence and we have very little voting record to go on - could go either way. Ramsden - prone to a cut, and could go either way. That leaves Greene - who errs on the side of hawkishness - and Breeden, who has never voted out of line with the Governor.

We could see a 5-4 hold next time out, or a 6-3. I predicted a 7-2 this time around, but the 2 as holders, not cutters of 50 bps - so that’s as far out as I’ve been for 26 meetings, as it goes. Hence the deep dive. Not a million miles off - and ultimately I got the result right - but it was the surprise from Mann that made me look into whether we might REALLY see lower mortgage rates on the back of this meeting.

Sorry to disappoint - I’m sure plenty hoped that I would fold, and confidently predict 4% or lower by the end of the year - it’s definitely more likely than it was, in my book, but with the inflation situation pretty clearly out there, unless we really did go into a contraction cycle with the economy (and I don’t think we will, and am hoping for positivity in February’s PMIs, from a low base of course) - we aren’t cutting in short order. Huw is the one who knows best - in Huw we trust.

As I draw to a close once more, I’ll just take the opportunity once again to remind you of the sourcing course I’m going to be delivering on 21-23 March alongside Daniel Kennedy and Nick Bond. All sausage and very little sizzle - real-time examples of how we find deals on a daily and weekly basis, and experience of many tens of thousands of deals analysed to lead to over 1000 deals being done between us all. There’s a reason why we call it “Sourcing solved” - because that’s what we are aiming to do.

Information and tickets here: https://propertymatchmaker.uk/sourcing-solved/?

Remember to book your tickets for the 1st April for the next Property Business Workshop too, on Due diligence - the most comprehensive day on DD that will ever have been delivered in the property space, I can guarantee it! Join those who have booked their SUPER early bird tickets here: bit.ly/pbw6?

Above all - please remember to Keep Calm, ALWAYS listen to or read the Supplement, and Carry On; don’t spend all your extra cashflow from that rate cut all at once, because there really won’t be much anyway………..but keep smiling!