Supplement 3 Nov 24 - Rachel Thieves?

“Rachel - it’s too late to say you’re sorry” - Set to the tune of “Kayleigh” by Marillion

Before we get started, get those tickets bought for the next Property Business Workshop - Thursday 16th January 2025 is the one! This time round we will be covering productivity, planning and financial accounting and bookkeeping. Why? Because we constantly see property businesses struggling with appropriate financial reporting, accounting and bookkeeping and making the same mistakes time and again. Help get a complete handle on the financial performance of your company/group when you aren’t at a level yet where you can afford a CFO or financial controller. As always it will be an action-packed, content-filled day which will stand alone in helping to advance your understanding as a Property Business Owner!

The link is LIVE and Super Early Bird tickets, with a 25%+ discount, are available now in limited numbers here: bit.ly/pbwfive??

There’s no hiding and no doubt that this week’s deep dive will focus heavily on the Autumn financial statement - the Budget - from this week, and see if Rachel has earned her derogatory nickname or not - and more importantly, if so, who the real losers are going to be.

Before tucking into that - and it won’t be the shortest one I’ve ever written, let’s face it - I’m going to crack on with the usual suspects.

Chris Watkin asked himself “that question” one more time - What is currently happening in the UK Property Market?

Chris - property stats guru - analyses the UK portal data which is aggregated for him by TwentyEA on a weekly basis. I love real-time (or as real-time as possible) snapshots and pictures of the market that we can piece together. Nothing better for staying informed.?

Listings took a dip with no doubt the Budget timing just causing that bit more uncertainty. Budgets have of course made a difference (and been announced at different times) over the past few years - 2022 does spring to mind, naturally - and so the week-to-week comparisons are less useful than they often can be, this week and next.?

SSTC wasn’t hurt too much though with nearly 26k houses being marked sold this week, subject to contract. Still 24% higher than the same week 12 months ago, so don’t lose sight of that difference. The uncertainty didn’t put the deals off from being done (although people can always pull out, of course).

The fall-throughs stayed at about 1 in 4 sales at the moment, which is very much in line with the 7-year average. It is next week’s figure that we will have to watch - and the week after’s - with care.

Net sales moved ahead of 2022’s number at the same point in the year, this week. Still a healthy print on the year - and 5.7% above the pre-pandemic average of 2017-19.

The real time market take has to change after the budget for reasons I will get into later; the facet that will grip the market for the next 5 months is the new stamp duty cliff from 250k back down to 125k. On transactions of 250k or above that are NOT first-time buyer transactions, and NOT second-home/corporate transactions, it will be worth ￡2,500 (and on transactions between 125k and 250k, it will be worth 2% of the difference above 125k.?

I know - that’s not big money in a property transaction. But trust me - from experience - it will create hype, and hype is all that’s needed to force people into transacting faster than they otherwise would. It won’t be massive - but it will be meaningful. It isn’t all irrational behaviour around tax, either - if you are borrowing 90% or 95% of the money, then another 1% on the purchase price in might be 8-9% more actual cash or even 16-18% more actual cash, depending on whether you are looking at 90% or 95%.

What does this mean? List your sales strategically. Perhaps watch the market for a week, perhaps just list now. Certainly prepare to list on Boxing Day (and get carried away with the usual hype) OR make an impact on the first weekend of the new year after the kids are back to school - depending on what you are selling. If you are selling “investor-only” stock, you might need to sit on it until 2025. I think the auction sales will be tumbleweed in November for the vendors - there’s still the same money out there for the right lots and bargains, of course, but many buyers are going to be looking to load the entire “new” extra 2% onto the vendor, to make already tight margins hold up. Plenty more on that later though, of course - just a soup?on.

So - we go Macro. The Bank of England Money and Credit report needs a shout. The Nationwide House Price Index of course - it’s that time of the month. There’s room for a look at the final Manufacturing PMI for October too, and then our “friends” the gilts and swaps - who, this week, cemented their place in the Supplement for at least another year, let’s just say. That will segue nicely into the budget.

The Money and Credit report. A reminder. What makes the headlines? The number of mortgage approvals. Remember, this is September - and if you take a rounded view (rather than “Wednesday has ruined everything!), there is going to be a difference between September (a naturally buoyant month for listings and sales, and OK for completions), October - with more uncertainty as the budget neared - November, with people working to really understand budget implications for a week, two weeks, or perhaps a month, and then December with it’s naturally quieter sales market but often plenty of completions scheduled, albeit front-loaded in the month.

What else do we like to look at in the report? Money supply, and also any signs of credit pressure or overleverage in any area - personal loans or unsecured debt, for example, and overall credit health.?

So - what did it say for September? On a net basis, mortgages were paid down by ￡300m; approvals for new house purchases rose over the magic 65k though, to 65,600. Not a lot more than last month at all but this is the bottom end of a really quite healthy market, when you are getting that sort of level of approvals. Or it was, before the budget……The highest level since August 2022 when the level was 72k approvals. Remortgages were back over the 30,000 mark at 30.8k.?

Net consumer credit was up by ￡1.2 billion on the month. Money supply was up fairly significantly, by 0.6%, which again suggests it will “find a home”, although the money supply is still truncated compared to Sep/Oct 2022.

The EIR - effective interest rate - dropped to 4.76% on newly drawn mortgages (I was still expecting a bit lower, to be honest); the rate on the outstanding stock moved from 3.72% to 3.74%, so we are now 102 basis points apart (102 basis points cheaper on average for existing debt versus new debt).?

Consumer credit growth rate stayed at 7.5% year-on-year, which isn’t sustainable in the long run, and needs to be monitored - but really it is symptomatic of the cost of living crisis, and the re-inflation of debt after the pandemic when a lot of it was paid down. The question is what this looks like in another 6-12 months time, really, rather than sensationalising the current figures. Interest rates are at new highs but 22-23% from 20-21% during much of the series doesn’t cause an incredible problem on its own.?

The final conclusion from the report is that lending to SMEs is still in a “shrink” phase rather than a growth one - it has improved, but still low-single-digit negative growth per year in SME lending. I can’t imagine much in the budget will be inspiring confidence in SMEs to go out and grow.?

Almost in concert with many recent reports, Nationwide reported the brakes going on in October in the housing market. 0.1% up month-on-month, 2.4% up year-on-year. Their chief economist didn’t change his overall impression of the housing market future path - they are still sticking with “gradual growth” with affordability improving thanks to incomes continuing to improve (next year may well prove a sticking point there with employers’ NICs taking up a much bigger share of the pie) and slowly decreasing interest rates (which sounds like a fair shout). They usually ignore supply-side constraints, expecting them to be continually reflective/not change too much, although we know that supply has been particularly poor in terms of new units and starts have not - as yet - picked up any meaningful pace.?

They instead concentrate on the move of the nil-rate band in Stamp Duty, for retail buyers, back down from ￡250k to ￡125k - and the first time buyer nil-rate from ￡425k to ￡300k. Their take is a 3-month busy period January to March enforced by this - which I’d be inclined to agree with - and a 3-6 month period of weakness afterwards; they have supported this factually with a nice graph, which is so nice I decided to use it as this week’s image!

They recognise a lower “swing” than normal, based on the fact that the numbers involved are just not as stark as they have been in previous stamp duty “cliffs”. In the Midlands for example, around 10% of first time buyer transactions will be hit by the transition back down from 425k to 300k. It will be - as so often - the Southern regions and the East that it primarily impacts. 40% of the FTB transactions in the South East will be impacted.

Their straightforward take on the move to 5% additional stamp?

“The Chancellor also announced an increase in the higher rate of stamp duty for additional dwellings by 2 percentage points to 5%, which took effect on 31 October. Based on data for the year to June 2024, this would affect around 194,000 transactions, around one in five residential transactions in England & Northern Ireland. We estimate for a typical buy to let purchase, this would add approximately ￡4,000 to stamp duty costs. Consequently, this may dampen demand in this part of the housing market.”

Now, I wish we had an understanding of how they know there have been 194k transactions in the past 12 months. 1 in 5 transactions is definitely not reflective of - for example - the mortgage data which has suggested 1 in every ￡11 (or so) of mortgage money has been used for buy-to-let. It could be a glut of cash buyers - of course - although it seems an unlikely time for cash buyers to really ramp up activity. 1 in 5 being “second homes” is of course not the same as 1 in 5 being “buy-to-let”, and this sort of figure leaves me scratching my head a little and wanting to understand more about their source data. Perhaps they will share some in the future - we can hope.?

What we do know, I’d think, is that adding ￡4k to each transaction (on average) will not increase transaction volume of this nature.

The PMIs for manufacturing were also finalised - and we had a textbook equivalent of the phenomenon of “pathetic fallacy” as they call it in English Literature. You know - something bad is about to happen in the story, so it starts raining, thundering, lightning, etc.?

The PMI for manufacturing dipped under 50, in its final figure for October, to 49.9. A tiny fraction under - and a few basis points below the flash print from earlier in October. Psychologically important - not really. A warning signal - possibly. Reduced new order intakes mean output growth was reined in - simply. On the bright side, input price inflation “eased sharply”.?

It’s the first time below the 50.0 mark since April. There was a modest increase in employment - happily - but again citations of the “wait and see” approach in the budget. Firms waited - they saw - and not many in manufacturing will have liked what they saw. There’s a heavy emphasis on minimum, or wages pegged to minimum, in people-heavy businesses which do the bulk of the employing in the sector (of course). As you might expect, though, the next report is the one most hotly anticipated, to see the real impact of the Budget changes in confidence and forward planning.

Onto the bonds and swaps, then. Something approaching a “black armband” week as we went about 0.2% the wrong way over the course of the week, with Monday’s open on the 5-year gilt at 4.139%, and the close at 4.324%. Thursday’s close was 4.323% suggesting that the market had, by then, finished absorbing all of Wednesday’s news, although the US elections AND the Bank of England meeting next week will no doubt have an impact on the pricing once more.

The SONIA swaps preserved their discount on Thursday’s close and closed at 4.028%, almost exactly 0.3% below the gilts as we’ve seen in the past few weeks. Long may it last - but it needs to. This sees mortgage rates just the wrong side of 6% as a best guess for a limited company 5 year fix, and investment-grade yields climb to 8.61% at the moment. These are the most miserable figures I can remember for some months in this section - however, one year ago the 5-year SONIA swap was 4.419% so we need to put all this into context.

Have we had a “Liz Truss” moment or a “KamiKwasi” budget - no, we definitely haven’t. However, this does provide us with the perfect segue to get on with the deep dive for the Budget, which I will waste no further time in doing!

Did Rachel earn her nickname this week that the meanies in the media had proposed for her? Some will say yes, of course. I’m going to attempt - as usual - to remain apolitical, and stick with factual, dispassionate economic analysis. Let’s see if I succeed.

It was a long old speech really. We had the same rhetoric wheeled out which is really starting to grind, now, on many listening to it. The ￡22bn black hole, the fault of the Tories. I’m sure the comms people feel that we need these constant reminders; personally, I just see it and think “well, we knew the last lot weren’t doing a great job - as a nation, we saw that, called it out, and voted significantly with our feet” which is why the Tories took such a kicking.?

In a week which saw Kemi Badenoch also elected as the leader of the Conservative Party, and a poll was released showing the Conservatives actually ahead (29-28-17-13, Cons-Lab-Ref-LibDem) - it did feel like the promises from the manifesto - which were largely ridiculous and simply a way of “buying their way into power”, in my view, were bent so far out of shape that it was difficult not to see them as broken.

Growth, growth, growth? Where, where, where would be my current retort, if I was on the other side of the house. Not increasing national insurance? Can’t really claim that one, can we, any more? The Institute for Fiscal Studies, noted as one of if not the most reliable and middle-of-the-road think tanks, wasted no time in saying it was a clear breach of the manifesto commitments. Let’s keep the economics really easy here - and summarise that part first of all as it was the biggest impact in one go.

Firstly - what happened? A decrease in the threshold at which employers start to pay national insurance on wages, from ￡9,100 to ￡5,000 from the next tax year. This is significant for anyone employing more than 4 full-time equivalents on minimum wage (or who has a wage bill of ￡100k or more, as a very rough rule of thumb). Why is that the “marker” - because the employers national insurance allowance - the discount applied for small companies - was moved from ￡5k to ￡10.5k per year.?

Now - all who are intending to offer their staff a pay rise next year (if we focus on businesses paying minimum or close to minimum, it isn’t about intention but about legal action, of course) - are paying 6.7% more on minimum wage - so that’s a further increase. 6.7% on minimum will add 1% onto employers’ national insurance too at 15%, and another 0.34% on mandatory pension contributions - meaning a staff cost increase of a minimum wage member of staff of 8.05% or thereabouts. That’s without considering the move in the employers’ national insurance threshold above - which is an extra ￡615 per year for all staff above the 4 full-time equivalents that I mentioned above. That would add - roughly - another 2.7% on the cost of a full-time equivalent staff member (making it a total increase in staff costs of 10.75% for NMW - national minimum wage - staff members). This isn’t far off the increase in April 2024 which was around 11.3%.

I hope you can see quite easily that people-heavy businesses are hit hard, particularly if they are paying around that lowest legal level. You can probably understand why many don’t have much sympathy for those businesses - but we are talking primarily about:

Care groups

Restaurants

Hospitality/Hotels

Pubs/Clubs

Retail

Cleaners

Arts & Entertainment

Vehicle repair and agriculture, to a lesser extent.?

The ONS did release an interesting paper this week, one for me to analyse in the future, about low and high pay in the UK. Low pay (as they’ve defined it) was almost completely wiped out as of April 2024 - and moves made in this budget will reinforce that. The definition they use of low paid is not within two-thirds of median pay. There may well be a danger in such arbitrary definitions, of course - but that’s one for another day.?

These changes raised ￡25bn per year (or thereabouts) for the satchel. Except they didn’t, because around one-fifth of that comes from the public sector - which comes out of the satchel, of course. OK - ￡20bn then? Not quite. That extra ￡20bn reduces corporation tax, of course, and so becomes more like ￡15bn, then? Not exactly - and this can only be because not all companies make a profit (and also not all companies pay the 25% level of CT, of course - the first ￡50k of profit is still taxed at 19%). The figure they settled on, in the end, roughly, was around ￡16bn.?

So really small businesses are better off before considering the minimum wage increase - which means they won’t be better off, of course, but comparatively they are not hit as hard. SMEs with more than that ￡100k per annum wage bill - who employ a vast percentage of the employees in the UK, 90% or more in the private sector - are hit hard - in an environment where prices have (or perhaps had) stabilised, and inflation was right back under control (yes, inflation is going to creep in here!)

Let’s talk about economic reality here. I can’t help but think Labour are patting themselves on the back here - primarily because they don’t and have never run an SME (as a front bench unit, as a near whole - we have to consider Polly Gustafsson of course, the new Minister of State for Investment, who ran Darktrace). They see this as a nice raid on business and the coffers of the wealthy (the wealth creators, that they were meant to be encouraging, right? Oops, can’t resist).?

What really happens when costs move up this much, and the environment won’t swallow huge price increases? One of a number of things. The incidence of this price rise is only going in three directions:

1. Swallowed by the company who accept to continue trading at a lower margin
2. Swallowed by the employees who don’t get a pay rise next year (not even an option for NMW employers)
3. Swallowed by the customers of those businesses who get a 4-8% increase passed on in the prices that they pay (depending on just how people-intensive those businesses are).?

In the real world, a blend happens. The textbook economics will tell you that this is about the price elasticity of demand, which I talk about in the context of housing on occasion. The simple way to understand this is to remember petrol or diesel prices. When they go up 10%, demand for them does not go down 10%. It does go down, because affordability bites, and because alternative methods of transport become more attractive - but it goes down 1-2%. It is described as inelastic.

In some of the sectors mentioned above, you can probably look through the inelastic and the elastic, and these numbers are broadly available via research papers as well. Care homes - likely to be inelastic, because it involves housing and there is not enough supply (and supply is falling - a bit like the rental market overall). Leisure activities - likely to be elastic, because they fill spare time, and affordability and substitutes are easier to find/come up with/think of.

Well - look on the other side. An NMW worker will earn 6.7% more - but anyone working 20 hours a week or more will only see 4.82% of that in their pockets, because the tax thresholds mean they lose 28% of that in tax (and more if they are contributing to their pension).?

So - they can afford an inflation rate of 4.82% to stay still, of course. That “bottom-up” approach to consumption does feed into economic activity to a large extent - and, the lower paid have a tendency to consume 100% (or even more, because they become more creditworthy and they use that fact) of any pay rise that they do have. There’s some slippage there, though, isn’t there between a 10.75% cost to the company and a 4.82% increase in the pay packet - the massive inefficiency of tax, of course, and why it doesn’t stimulate growth - in one simple (OK, it may have gone beyond simple now) formula.

That really covers what I wanted to, in terms of the macro consequences, and some of the real numbers that I know some people have been asking for, in a (hopefully accessible) way for this budget. That leaves us - based on time constraints, and attention spans, with the property implications. I may well return to this budget next week, although we will have some really major news events to consider as well given the Bank of England meeting - which is a quarterly “major” one as well with a full report, let alone the US presidential elections…..

You will know what’s happened by now. I’ve thrown some references out to it already. HRAD - a new acronym, the first time I’ve seen it anyway - the Higher Rate on Additional Dwellings - was increased from 3% to 5% for individuals, limited companies, and other corporate structures. The change was a “next day” one - so as to not create a cliff edge.?

This goes on top of the other stamp duty changes already referred to above, as well. So, a little rundown might be helpful here as a quick exercise - with a reminder that this is for England, because this is a devolved tax these days.?

Remember these are all marginal rates, apart from the ￡40k band which is a genuine cliff edge.

Property below ￡40k - no SDLT

Property ￡40k - ￡125k - before 31st October 2024 3%, after 31st October 5%

For the next portion: ￡125k - ￡250k - before 31st October 2024 3%, after 31st October 2024 but before April 1st 2025 5%, after April 1st 2025 7%

For the next portion: ￡250k - ￡925k - before 31st October 2024 8%, after 31st October 10%

I don’t think there’s much need to go on. Chunky, as everyone can see (the top rate now is 17%, but for an overseas buyer of a second home it would be 19%, as they still have a 2% further premium to consider).?

Paul Johnson, still the IFS Director for the moment (he’s leaving to become Provost of Queen’s College Oxford) put it very calmly. “I have said again and again that stamp duty land tax is among the most economically damaging of all our taxes, and yet we have it increasing again,” says Johnson. “The increase may just be on second properties, but it is renters who will pay part of the cost as the supply of such properties falls.”

He’s spoken out against SDLT many times. He sees a better alternative as an ongoing tax on owned properties/land (which is more like the American system). SDLT clogs up transaction numbers and chokes them - as he sees it - and he’s right, of course.?

Let’s go back to our logic followed through from the employers’ NI situation. What will happen?

1. Vendors roll over and accept offers 2% lower
2. Purchasers roll over and just pay 2% more
3. The middle ground, somewhere, depending on the motivation of both parties

We all know that 3 is the most likely. Margins are cut, once again, and transaction volumes will fall. Woe is me/us? Not necessarily. There are further nuances, too, which we will get into.?

There’s a second side to this, of course. What I’m seeing, metaphorically, as “the moat”. How easy is it now to buy more property? It’s harder, and more costly. No-one can deny that. What does that mean for those that already OWN property? Less competition. Why? What we would call, dispassionately, organic wastage. People leave the market on the supply side every day. “Had enough” is the popular narrative, but death/debt/divorce tells more of a story. Tenant moves on/vacant possession? A large percentage of that stock will go on the open market, or into the auction market if condition is particularly poor, as a rule.?

Tenant in situ? Much more likely to go straight to auction. What feature does almost any? property share if it has been held for an average of 15 years? (the most “recent” number I can find on this comes from Hamptons who quoted 17 years in 2015, compared to 14 years at the time for the average owner-occupier). The owner-occupier number more recently has been closer to 22 years, but let us stick with 15 years.?

Capital growth. So there’s headroom to play with on exit. Many times we see and are involved in transactions where the proceeds cover the mortgage, just about, or the vendor is even needing to go to their pocket - but we are buying professionally, and that’s what you’d expect from us. Generally, there will be a capital gain (not changed, from a property perspective, in the budget) and some residual equity, on the vast majority of ex-rental transactions.

So - basic economics again - less new stock in terms of new supply to the market, due to a higher cost of entry. Organic wastage the same? No reason to assume otherwise - or certainly no reason to assume why it would go down.

Indeed, the theoretical at the moment is that inorganic wastage - other reasons for exits - is up, and going up further. Harder to measure, so we need to stay with the theoretical, for the moment (although there are some measures that I refer to on occasion that attempt to measure this - e.g. Zoopla looks at properties for sale that were listed on Zoopla for rent within the previous few years, which will underdeclare the amount of ex-rental sales of course with some having had such long tenancies).

End of a cheap mortgage term - not to be replaced by “cheap” rates at any time in the near future - this phenomenon to continue until early 2027, although with the majority - now - all dropped off by the end of this year (all of the old 2-year cheap money, and 40% of the 5-year cheap money, is the assumption I’m working on there). Three years left of that phenomenon, though.

A hostile (to the landlord) Renters’ Rights Bill going through the Houses of Parliament. In current form - as previously analysed - hostile particularly to Student HMO landlords, and probably a lot less damaging than the noise being made on the rest of it, in current form. There will be higher costs, though, once again, with a nationwide licensing scheme, of course.

We often hear and look at all this from the lens of the landlord. That’s natural, of course - but consider the tenant and back to what Paul Johnson said. “It is renters who will pay part of the cost as the supply of such properties falls.”

What I’ve attempted to do in the past when discussing this is answer the next natural question. “How much of the cost do they bear?” - and the answer appears to be 60-80% of all cost increases. A massive amount. But the utility of housing is so high - people need it so much - that, as I have taken to saying more recently, the only governor on rents is affordability in the relatively near future.

There’s a further piece of research out this week by the ONS on that front - but, with time constraints in mind, and one final important section to consider - once again it will wait for another day.??

That final section has to be - of course - what to do, and where are the opportunities?

Well. The move came as a shock, on the SDLT front. I am kicking myself, because I mentioned it at least twice in the run-up as a “likely” or a “possible”, because Labour are always keen to tell us how well they have been doing in Wales, and Wales have a higher rate already (or had one, it is now the lowest in the UK!) - at 4%. Scotland has a 6% cliff at the 40k mark on second transactions (and just look at supply up there! But the rent caps also have to be considered).?

I thought they might move to 4%, but 5% was a genuine surprise. No leaks on that one - but you can understand why. They’ve tried not to move the market. Just one piece that I have been quoting from the actual Autumn Statement Summary on the Government website, to answer the question about “what if I’d exchanged”: Under the heading on the Autumn Budget 2024 gov.uk page under “Delivering Tax Commitments”: “Those who exchanged contracts prior to 31 October 2024 are not affected by this rate increase.”

So - what to do? Sale agreed? Renegotiate. Exchanged? Don’t worry but prepare for a battle to educate your solicitors. This is interesting because it somewhat goes against what HMRC say about Stamp Duty in general, but you would have to consider this to take precedent, I believe, and HMRC not to have appetite to go after buyers at this point who had exchanged prior to Thursday 31st October.

What will happen now, in the immediate future? Well, you’ll have noticed (I hope) that it is November. December is next up. Many buyers will be put off in the short term, leaving the same as usual supply of properties (on the market, in auctions, etc) and fewer buyers. That means the buyers that remain will pay lower prices. Can you negotiate MORE than a 2% lower price than last week? I’d say absolutely, and will be gunning for 5-7% more off. 65p in the ￡ is the new 75p in the ￡, for the rest of 2024 anyway. Trading in the ￡125k - ￡250k segment? Prepare for heat, especially after Christmas, as some buyers lose their heads and do irrational things to beat the deadline - for example, paying more than 2% more for a property to save themselves 2%. It happens every time, time and again, in these situations. It won’t be a “ridiculous one” like April 2016, but it will be very clear in the activity. Consider sales of properties in this bracket sooner rather than later, if you are thinking about getting rid.?

Still wanting to expand? Consider non-residential rates, which haven’t changed. 6 properties or more (self-contained units) will pay the non-residential rate, which for transactions of ￡250k is ￡2000 (2% on ￡150k to ￡250k), and 5% on anything above that. Also consider how much more attractive limited company purchases have got - 0.5% SDLT on shares has not changed, even if the vendor’s capital gains tax position HAS changed (from 20% to 24%) on the disposal of those shares.

People will be nervous. They won’t trust Labour after this, in my view. I already hear “well, capital gains tax will be going up next year on property”. And - you know what - it might do. I don’t think this administration will take it much above the 28% where it was - with no-one moaning about it, really - before Jeremy Hunt tried a little giveaway to the core voter base before the election and knocked it to 24%.?

I’ve got stuck in to a large amount of purchases in the past 2 months, which will now calm down a fair amount. That is due to people selling out of straightforward fear, who might well be scratching their heads after this budget. The traders say “Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact” which might have been a better quote for this week - but I’ll stick with my ode to Rachel, and her efforts - throughout which we need to Keep Calm and Carry On.

Before I call it one more time, a reminder that tickets for the next Property Business Workshop are OUT - Thursday January 16th 2025 (Yikes), with some great subject matter - planning, efficiencies, and also financial accounting and bookkeeping - not “how to use Xero” but how to ensure reporting is SET UP correctly and how to monitor it on an effective, ongoing, monthly basis.

SUPER Early Bird tickets are available with a 25%+ face value discount on them - once they are gone they are gone, Rod and I hope to see you there. Buy one here: https://bit.ly/pbwfive

There’s only one way to deal with all of this ongoing noise and excitement - Keep Calm, ALWAYS read or listen to the Supplement, and Carry On!