Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction

In Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction - Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner unlock the mysteries of why some people, and not others, are statistically more capable of predicting future events - by significant margins.

The authors identify the crucial mix of characteristics in accurate, or "super" forecasters, which are: a thirst for knowledge, humility and an open-minded willingness to alter their views in light of new information.

A thirst for information, humility and open-mindedness is the magic combination of traits in "super" forecasters

The Superforecasters identified by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner did not necessarily come from illustrious backgrounds: they were an eclectic collection of housewives, agricultural workers, unemployed factory workers and professors of mathematics who each possessed the magic combination of attitudes.

Those with a "growing" mindset who are willing to learn and willing to adapt their thinking and viewpoints, will be most capable of accurate predictions and will be most resilient in a complex and uncertain world.

Those with a "fixed" mindset, who don't change their opinions readily and are unwilling to learn new things, are the least capable of predicting future events, and will be the least resilient in a complex and uncertain world.

This book is a fascinating read for anyone - but, in particular, business leaders and entrepreneurs who operate in a complex environment where resilience, flexibility and predictive accuracy are essential if you want to thrive. Equally, The Economists' Review of the book is an excellent introduction to the authors' research.