"Super Thursday!"

Today is “Super Thursday” where we have the Bank of England interest rate decision along with the minutes, the inflation report and the press conference. Normally this dump of data all at the same time will have the markets on high alert.  However, ahead of the UK referendum vote in June, it is unlikely that we will see any change or firm commitments on policy until this event risk is cleared.

Nonetheless, we will be looking for any comments surrounding the Brexit vote itself, especially given the general weakness in recent UK data in the run up to the vote. If the Bank highlights risks and uncertainties of the Brexit vote, we could see some GBP weakness and in addition, we could see downward revisions to the UK growth forecast.

Manufacturing weakness making a rate rise unlikely

Focusing on UK data, UK industrial production (IP) came in below consensus and leaves the quarterly growth of IP in contraction. Looking forward with weakness in manufacturing looks set to leave industrial production on a weak trend and confirms and overall slowdown in economic growth. The slowdown in UK data coupled with the Brexit vote is pushing back any potential for a move towards a UK rate rise.

The US waiting to hear today’s Fedspeak

Aside from the UK data, today we will also be keeping an eye on “Fedspeak” with three speeches from Federal Reserve voter members. The three speaking today are likely to enforce a more hawkish view of the road ahead and this could play into some USD strength this afternoon. We also have US jobs data with initial jobless claims to get feedback on this afternoon.

It's the weekend here in Dubai, so see you next week!