Sunday Winter Event Update:
1st accumulating Snow event to hit North/Central MD Wednesday 12/16.
I expect with 80% confidence that there will likely be a relatively widespread Snow event starting around 5:00 am Wednesday morning continuing throughout the day Wednesday ending around 7:00 pm.
Cat 1, 3-5 Inches: a Line from Rockville to Baltimore MD (5-10 Miles NW)
Car 2, 6-10 Inches: a line from Frederick MD to Forrest Hill MD (10-20 Miles either side)
I will update Sunday should there be any significant changes!
Sunday Update:
I now expect our area to be impacted by Cat2 & Cat3 conditions. Everyone will start as Snow around 8:00 am Wednesday throughout Central MD. Areas East of I-83 may see mixing between 2:00-6:00 , areas West are far less likely to see mixing. Note I'm not forecasting a Changeover to Rain North of I-70/West just some mixing possible. there. The system should end Thursday~ 3 am.
Final thoughts: The reason I post these is because the local media outlets generally do Not forecast early enough in order for people to properly prepare when 6-15+ inches are Likely over a large area. So that's what I do. If I'm wrong well it wasn't for lack of effort. I wont just wait on the latest Model Runs to enlighten me, I actually look to Forecast Gaps that may end up being useful to many!
Updated Snowfall Projections:
Cat 2, 6-10 Inches: a Line from Rockville to Baltimore MD (5-10 Miles NW)
Cat 3, 10-15 Inches: a line from Frederick MD to Forrest Hill MD (10-20 Miles either side)
:Cat 3: 10-15 Inches- Significant Impacts, Widespread Travel Delays 2-3 Days, Property Damage & Power Outages possible
For those who want to chase I expect the worst conditions to occur just North of PA Line southern York where I expect 12-20 inches.
Best always,
Joe
Joe