Sun Tzu's Theory of War for Understanding the Outcomes of Terrorist Campaigns

Adapted from a 2004 Naval War College paper and published at: https://www.sonshi.com/sun-tzu-and-terrorism.html.

Introduction

Sun Tzu's theory of war provides a conceptual framework for the study of policy and strategy that has direct relevance on the War on Terrorism. This third year of the U.S. War on Terrorism is being fought not only with military might but also non-military means. These non-military means include the political, diplomatic, and economic U.S. instruments of power. Since terrorism is unique in that it can occur during times of peace and war, it correlates well with Sun Tzu's broad concept of war that "peace and war are difficult to distinguish from each other and are part of the same ongoing conflict." As such, Sun Tzu's theory of war for understanding the outcomes of terrorist campaigns has direct applicability and is a resource to guide not only military leaders but also political leaders. His Art of War codifies from a broad perspective the threat of military action combined with non-military methods such as diplomatic, economic, psychological means could be used to attack an enemy's alliances and strategy which would lead to the greatest achievement of winning without fighting by convincing the enemy to yield or switch sides.

This research paper will examine the key concepts of Sun Tzu's theory of war as it should influence diplomacy, economics, psychological warfare, and intelligence. The paper will also draw a direct correlation to U.S. foreign policy and successes against current worldwide terrorist campaigns using the philosophy of the Art of War. This paper will also provide a counterargument that Sun Tzu's Strategy of War is idealistic and does not reflect reality.

Diplomacy

The U.S. is using diplomatic and political methods to combat terrorism. Political objectives have been articulated and a balance struck between diplomacy and military methods. According to Ambassador J. Cofer Black, Coordinator for Counterterrorism, during his testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in Washington, DC, March 18, 2003, "diplomacy is the instrument of power that builds political will and strengthens international cooperation. Through diplomatic exchanges we promote counterterrorism cooperation with friendly nations that serves our mutual interests. We build capacity that bolsters the capabilities of our allies. Diplomacy helps us take the war to the terrorists; to cut off the resources they need and depend upon to survive." The current U.S. Counterterrorism Policy is:

• Make no concessions to terrorists and strike no deals
• Bring terrorists to justice for their crimes
• Isolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor terrorism to force them to change their behavior
• Bolster the counterterrorism capabilities of those countries that work with the U.S. and require assistance

Since the U.S. military has the preponderance of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, there are limited assets and political will to engage terrorist networks in the rest of the world unilaterally. The U.S. has to rely on host nations to engage terrorism and deny them safe havens and sponsorship. As a result, U.S. strategy is to strengthen and sustain a global coalition to interdict, disrupt, capture or kill terrorists in sovereign countries. Sun Tzu recommends disruption of enemy alliances to deprive them of external support which may lead to their abandonment of their war plans or to better isolate the enemy so they may be rapidly defeated.

[Tu Yu] Do not allow your enemies to get together.

[Wang Hsi] Look into the matter of his alliances and cause them to be severed and dissolved. If an enemy has alliances, the problem is grave and the enemy's position strong; if he has no alliances, the problem is minor and the enemy's position weak. (Sun Tzu, The Art of War, p. 78)

Through diplomacy/politics the U.S. has established alliances to encourage political, law enforcement and economic policy changes favorable to combating terrorist networks domestically and internationally resulting in the fragmentation of terrorist organizations such as Al Qaida and their denial of safe havens. Over 170 nations are actively capturing or killing terrorists (State, pg 1).

As such, the U.S. is accomplishing her War on Terrorism strategy in accordance to Sun Tzu's recommendation that "to subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill" (Sun Tzu, pp77 and 79). "…troops are not worn out and your gains will be complete. This is the art of offensive strategy" (Sun Tzu, p79). "One needs little to achieve much" (Sun Tzu, p95). However, although Sun Tzu states "generally in war the best policy is to take a state intact…" (Griffith, pg77) military force is sometimes necessary such as in Afghanistan to disrupt and destroy AQ/Taliban terrorist networks.

Economics

The second non-military method the U.S. is employing to combat terrorism is economics. The U.S. is providing training and assistance funding to the global coalition against terrorism; bolstering U.S. military, intelligence and law enforcement capabilities; funding counter-terrorism research and development; funding Homeland Security; and funding the Rewards for Justice Program. In addition, the U.S. is combating terrorism by disrupting money laundering and other sources of funding terrorist rely on to finance their operations. According to Ambassador Black, strengthening the financial and regulatory sectors of vulnerable coalition partners against manipulation and penetration by the financiers of terror, are interrupting and denying the flow of funds going to terrorists and their operations.

Psychological

This method of warfare is a combination of military and non-military methods. The cumulative effects of military actions to capture and kill terrorists, and non-military methods of diplomacy and economics to disrupt terrorists operations and support base, have an overall psychological impact against terrorists and their support bases. As Sun Tzu stated, "The enemy must not know where I intend to give battle. For if he does not know where I intend to give battle he must prepare in a great many places. And when he prepares in a great many places, those I have to fight in any one place will be few" (Griffith, pg 98). Not only are terrorists concerned about unilateral efforts by the U.S. but also multi-lateral attacks by the WOT coalition. "An enemy does not know where to defend…the enemy does not know where to attack" (Griffith, pg 96). These actions help key the terrorists off balance and deter recruitment. Unfortunately, the greatest terrorist threat today originates from Islamic extremism.

The Middle East and ungoverned areas such as the Horn of Africa, and the Afghanistan/Pakistan border are prime areas for growing extremism, terrorist recruitment and sanctuary. These areas are experiencing social stress such as low prestige, depressed economies, large numbers of unemployed educated young people, resentment of Western economic progress, and perception that the West is exploiting their resources and forcing Western ideas upon them. As such Islamic nations have failed to modernized, economically develop, and attain political legitimacy (Hashim, pg 16). As a result, the U.S. has an enormous task to change the perspective of Middle East countries to a favorable one and the best methods are diplomatic and economic. As Sun Tzu noted, "To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill. Thus what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy's strategy" (Griffith, pg 77). The strategy of several terrorist organizations is to leverage social discontent in poor Islamic countries to gain recruits or sympathizers to launch new attacks against Western interests.

Intelligence

Another key concept that Sun Tzu's Strategy of War articulates are the principles related to the use of intelligence which has direct applicability to combating terrorism. Intelligence enables the U.S. to combat terrorists "When the enemy is at ease…to weary him; when well fed, to starve him; when at rest, to make him move." In addition, it gives the U.S. the ability to prepare either military or non-military resources to "move swiftly where he does not expect you" and "to be certain…to attack a place the enemy does not protect" (Griffith, pg 96).

Reliable and complete intelligence that is accurately interpreted and used from the strategic through tactical levels allows the U.S. to attack the mind of the commander. Net assessments of enemy strengths, tactics, techniques, and procedures based on accurate and timely intelligence permits a nation to build a viable strategy and net assessment of one's own strengths to combat terrorism. As Sun Tzu stated "Know the enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles you will never be in peril" (Griffith, p84).

In order to adhere to this maxim we need to first understand the nature of the War on Terrorism. The War on Terrorism is a metaphor such as the War of Drugs and Poverty. A proper analogy may be the Cold War or Vietnam War, both protracted conflicts. Although war is traditionally viewed as force on force military operations against nations or with nations (civil war), terrorism is unique in that it falls at the lower end of the Full Spectrum of Conflict and can fall within three categories: non-state supported, state-supported, and state directed.

To compound the complexity in defeating terrorism, terrorist groups can operate nationally, transnationally, or internationally. For example, Al Qaida operates internationally, however in Southeast Asia Jemaah Islamiah is networked transnationally, and in the Philippines the Abu Sayyaf Group operates nationally. Yet these three groups have known ties to each other and other terrorist networks. The complexity of waging a War on Terrorism can be directly associated to the complexities faced by the U.S. during the Vietnam War when the U.S. fought several levels of conflict: Cold War, North Vietnam, and Vietcong insurgency.

In addition, terrorists are secretive, compartmentalized, cellular, and decentralized making it extremely difficult to find, fix, penetrate, capture, or kill. The line between war and peace is blurred due to the difficulty of achieving conclusive military victories against terrorists because by their organizational structure and tactics, techniques and procedures cannot be defeated decisively. Only through the use of intelligence preparation of the battlespace, indications and warning, targeting, predictive analysis, may the U.S. better understand the terrorist mindset "concentrate on the mind of the enemy" and gain information superiority. One of the major lessons learned these last three years combating terrorists is the importance of Human intelligence, which the Art of War emphasizes the use of spies and agents and that "secret operations are essential in war; upon them the army relies to make its every move" (Griffith, pg 149). "All warfare is based on deception." (Griffith, pg 66) and "to capture the enemy's army is better than to destroy it…" (Griffith, pg 77) captured terrorists provide valuable intelligence that helps dismantle terrorist networks.

Counterargument

Handel argues that Sun Tzu's theory of war is an idealistic way of waging wars, which lacks realism and ignores violence in war since the Theory states force should be used sparingly and as last resort (Handel, pg 22). In addition he argues that there are many intervening variables such as friction, uncertainty and chance, and the opponents' denial and deception campaign to thwart the use of intelligence.

Although these are important points they miss the mark and Sun Tzu's theory of war has direct relevance on the war on terrorism. For example, although not perfect, the intelligence community has improved methods of collection, exploitation, dissemination, and processing of critical all source intelligence which has supported the arrest, capture or killing of several hundred terrorists outside of Afghanistan and Iraq. In addition, Handel assesses that "little force cannot achieve much", which is again flawed. For example, the French used overwhelming force during the Battle of Algiers to defeat the FLN in the city, which worked, however it did not defeat terrorism in Algeria, which thrives today. Winning a battle does not win the war. As stated above, economic and diplomatic/political instruments of power need to be leveraged to deal with the inherent social problems plaguing Islamic countries. To further cement my position, the use of small units of Special Operations Forces with small arms to interdict terrorists is widely used in Iraq and Afghanistan, which is another counter to the statement that "little force cannot achieve much".

The best argument Handel makes deals with Sun Tzu's view of prolonged conflicts. Sun Tzu states "Victory is the main object in war. If this is long delayed weapons will be blunted and morale depressed." In addition he states, "When the army engages in protracted campaigns the resources of the state will not suffice." "There has never been a protracted war from which a country has benefited" (Griffith, pg 73). By the very nature of the War on Terrorism, it is a protracted struggle and seems to greatly diverge from Sun Tzu's strategy. However, Sun Tzu recognizes that war is always constant and does not necessarily need to be represented by force on force military actions, but includes ongoing diplomatic, economic, and psychological battles. As such, the relevance of the Art of War takes increased importance especially when dealing with the U.S. mindset since the following are all long-term aims:

• US policy needs to keep Sept 11 alive because Americans have short memories
• US can no longer be complacent; war on terrorism will be costly, lives lost, resources expended
• We need to rely on our allies and coalitions, and sovereign states to police terrorist networks and create environments inhospitable to terrorists
• There will always be terrorists, so we cannot just focus on the defensive but the offensive with military and non-military means; war termination is idealistic
• We need to address social depression in Islamic states
• We need to improve relations with Islamic peoples

Conclusion

In alignment with Sun Tzu's strategy, politics and military instruments of war are working towards being more interoperable and seamless. Sun Tzu's theory of war provides a conceptual framework for the study of policy and strategy that has direct relevance on the War on Terrorism. The Art of War has direct applicability and is a resource to guide not only military leaders but also political leaders for better understanding the outcomes of terrorist campaigns. Sun Tzu's "The Art of War" codifies from a broad perspective the threat of military action combined with non-military methods such as diplomatic, economic, psychological means could be used to attack an enemy's alliances and strategy which would lead to the greatest achievement of winning without fighting by convincing the enemy to yield or switch sides.

Bibliography

Crenshaw, M., Terrorism in Context, Penn State University Press, 1995.
Griffith, S.B., Sun Tzu Art of War, London, Oxford University Press, 1971.
Handel, Michael I., Masters of War, London, Frank Cass Pub., 2001.
Hashim, A.S., The World According to Usama Bin Laden, NWC Review, 2001.