"The sun cannot rise in the East, as well as the West."

The year 2025 is looking fantastic for "Manganese-in-Batteries" and some telling developments are making the news for this edition.

Asia, ASEAN-region, Australia and India are best positioned to play a major role up- to midstream in battery chemistries with a high manganese contents.

The US, Europe and UK, as loud as they are, are not the leaders they tell you they are, especially when it comes to anything to do with Manganese and its use in batteries.

I still wish them all of the best in catching up eventually, but my focus will remain on the leaders of the pack, and where savvy investors should look to make intelligent investments.

South Africa.... well, let's wait and see, as things are about to get very interesting in my country of birth.

SECTION 1

The landscape of battery technology in China, ASEAN countries, Australia and India has seen significant advancements in the use of manganese for battery applications.

China:

• CATL

On February 5, 2025, announced a 30% expansion in LMFP battery production capacity, aiming to meet the rising demand for high-performance, cost-effective EV batteries. Shared through their official Weibo account.

• China Molybdenum Co. LTD

Increased investment in manganese mining was announced on February 11, 2025, via their corporate website, to secure raw materials for the burgeoning battery sector.

• Firebird Metals Limited & Eramet MOU

An agreement was inked on February 10, 2025, for high grade manganese ore (Mn > 43%) supply, to produce low-cost battery grade manganese sulphate and Manganese tetraoxide, primarily for LMFP batteries in China.

ASEAN Region:

• Indonesia:

Vale Indonesia on February 7, 2025, announced exploring manganese processing opportunities,, leveraging their nickel operations to support EV battery production.

• Thailand:

Energy Absolute PCL's plan to use more manganese-rich materials in battery manufacturing was shared on February 10, 2025, through their social media, aiming to enhance local EV component production.

• Malaysia:

OM Holdings Ltd. announced on February 6, 2025, via Bursa Malaysia, their expansion into battery-grade manganese supply, signaling Malaysia's growing role in the battery supply chain.

• Panasonic's ASEAN Strategy:

On February 8, 2025, Panasonic expressed intentions to double down on manganese-based batteries for ASEAN energy storage, partnering with a Malaysian firm, as reported by Nikkei Asia.

India:

• Indian Oil Corporation:

On February 12, 2025, via their website, they disclosed a collaboration with a startup for developing manganese-rich battery chemistries for EV charging infrastructure.

• Amara Raja Batteries:

On February 8, 2025, announced their R&D into LMFP materials, aiming to use India's manganese abundance for cost-effective battery production.

• Tata Chemicals:

On February 5, 2025, announced a partnership for manganese sulphate production on their official website, focusing on reducing import reliance.

• Government Support: The Indian Ministry of Mines on February 3, 2025, announced incentives for manganese mining and processing for battery applications, supporting the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative.

If any of the above needs amendments or where your sources of information differ from mine, kindly inform me, so I can make the required corrections.

Broader Insights:

• Sustainability and Local Sourcing: There's a concerted effort across these regions to leverage local manganese resources for sustainable battery production, reducing dependency on traditional materials like cobalt.
• Market Expansion: The expansion of manganese-based battery production is not just for domestic markets but also positions these regions as potential global suppliers, challenging traditional battery tech leaders.
• Innovation and Collaboration: Significant innovation is happening, with companies and governments collaborating across borders within Asia to enhance battery technology and supply chain resilience.

Conclusion:

These announcements of developments in China, ASEAN, Australia and India since 1 February, 2025, underscore a strategic shift towards manganese in battery technologies, driven by the need for cost-efficiency, performance, and sustainability.

These regions are actively shaping the future of energy storage through local resource utilization, innovation, and strategic partnerships, highlighting a pivotal moment in the global battery industry.

Section 2:

Article 2:

The Shifting Economics of Battery Chemistries:

Navigating a Dynamic Landscape

The battery industry is in the midst of a profound shift, as the balance of power between different chemistries evolves and new technologies emerge to challenge the status quo. At the heart of this dynamic is the interplay of technological innovation, raw material prices, policy incentives, and changing consumer demands.

For companies looking to navigate this complex landscape, understanding the underlying economic drivers and potential future scenarios is critical.

The Rise of LFP and the Decline of NMC

One of the most significant trends in recent years has been the resurgence of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries at the expense of nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) chemistries. In China, the world's largest electric vehicle market, LFP's share of battery installations has surged from around 10% in the mid-2010s to over 60% today.

This shift has been driven by a combination of factors, including:

• Improvements in LFP energy density and cost, thanks to innovations like BYD's blade battery design and CATL's cell-to-pack technology.
• Lower exposure to supply chain risks and price volatility for raw materials like nickel and cobalt.
• Growing consumer preference for more affordable and safer battery options, especially in entry-level and mid-range vehicles.

At the same time, NMC's market share has declined from a peak of around 90% in 2019 to less than 40% today. This is partly due to the slower pace of innovation in NMC compared to LFP, as well as the higher costs associated with sourcing and refining nickel and cobalt.

However, NMC still maintains a significant performance advantage over LFP in terms of energy density and charging speed, making it the preferred choice for high-end and long-range vehicles.

The Wild Card of LMFP

The rise of lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) could further disrupt the battery landscape in the coming years.

LMFP is an upgraded version of LFP, but not as simple as taking LFP and adding Manganese.

It incorporates manganese into the cathode structure,

(and sometimes the "doping" is with Iron, not the perceived other way round!)

enabling higher energy density, voltage, and low-temperature performance.

According to some projections, LMFP could capture up to 25% of the EV battery market by 2033, driven by the rapid scaling of production capacity by Chinese giants like CATL, BYD, and Gotion High-Tech.

Already, Tesla is using CATL's LMFP-equivalent batteries, M3P, in its China-made Model 3, resulting in a 10% range increase over the LFP version.

The economics of LMFP are still evolving, as the technology is relatively new and the supply chain is not yet fully developed.

However, initial indications suggest that LMFP could offer a compelling value proposition, with potentially lower costs per watt-hour than both LFP and NMC due to its higher energy density and the abundance of manganese as a raw material.

Scenarios for the Future

Looking ahead, the McKinsey report outlines three potential scenarios for the battery market in 2035, each with different implications for the balance of chemistries and the competitive landscape:

1. A continuation of the current trajectory, with LFP and NMC splitting their combined market share 60/40 based on different performance and cost requirements.
2. An accelerated adoption of LFP/LMFP, driven by technological breakthroughs and supply chain shifts, leading to an 80% (LFP+LMFP) market share., relative to NMC.
3. A resurgence of NMC or the emergence of new chemistries like solid-state and sodium-ion, driven by innovations in energy density and changing market demands.

Each of these scenarios would have profound implications for battery makers, automakers, and other stakeholders along the value chain. Companies will need to be agile and adaptable in their strategies, investing in a diversified portfolio of technologies and partnerships to hedge against uncertain outcomes.

At the same time, the shifting economics of battery chemistries will have ripple effects on upstream raw material markets and downstream applications. The decline of NMC could put pressure on nickel and cobalt producers, while the rise of LFP/LMFP could create new opportunities for manganese- and iron processing facilities. ( NOT NEW MINES !! )

Automakers will need to carefully consider the trade-offs between performance, cost, and sustainability in their battery sourcing decisions,

while also preparing for potential disruptions from new technologies like all-solid-state batteries.

(whenever it will be cost effective enough for mass-market adoption, which may need another 4 to 8 years)

Ultimately, the key to success in this dynamic landscape will be a combination of technological innovation, supply chain resilience, and strategic foresight.

Companies that can stay ahead of the curve in battery R&D, secure access to critical raw materials,

and build flexibility into their production and sourcing strategies will be best positioned to thrive in the electric age.

In the next article,

in 2 weeks,

we'll take a closer look at the challenges and opportunities in securing the battery supply chain in a changing world.

Cheers for now,

Magnus.

https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/magnus-bekker/