Summit Season

Hello from Sydney,

To mark the start of Spring (at least here in the southern hemisphere) and Autumn (for those up north dragging themselves back to work), we are offering full access to Geopolitical Dispatch for free for one month.

Sign-up using this link and you can read not only all our analyses from the past week in the below digest but also all one hundred stories we'll be publishing over September.

It’s a good time to pay close attention to international affairs as September promises to be a busy — and significant — month.?

The United States’ relations with Latin American governments are getting more complicated after Mexico cut ties with the American embassy, Nicaragua shuttered 169 civil society groups and even Costa Rica and Panama have signalled fatigue with US demands. As the US election heats up and with illegal migration over the southern border a major issue for voters, it is worth tracking diplomacy in the Americas.

September will likely be eventful in the Middle East, too.?

More twists and turns in Israel’s hot war in Gaza and its proxy war with Iran are expected — but with unclear ramifications. Turkey is stepping up its game of strategic chicken in the region. And Erdogan’s upcoming meetings with Egypt’s President and the leaders of Ethiopia and Somalia to try to broker a peace deal bear watching.

Similarly, Putin’s incoming visit to Mongolia and Japan’s outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to Seoul this week could also be significant. Mongolia will be asked to approve a gas pipeline from Russia to China, an important economic and geostrategic project for both Moscow and Beijing. And Beijing and Pyongyang will be hoping that the Japanese-South Korean meeting will be the last substantive summit for a while.

Either way, summits will be the theme of the month.? World leaders will, as always, descend on New York for the United Nations General Assembly. But this year's gathering may be especially momentous, with the UN holding a the “Summit of the Future”, an ambitious project aiming to address (glaring) gaps in global governance -- but one whose success will inevitably be subject to the tensions between UN members.

With so much diplomatic activity, September is a great time to trial full access to Geopolitical Dispatch.

If you would a taste of what to expect, click this link to view all our pieces from last week listed in our digest below and get a one-month free trial.

Asia-Pacific

• INDIA. BANGLADESH . Politics get nastier on both sides of the divide.
• AUSTRALIA. THE PACIFIC . A police cooperation program is a drop in the ocean.?
• THE VATICAN. CHINA . Beijing gets closer to Taipei’s most influential ally.
• THE PHILIPPINES. CHINA . Maritime tensions distract from issues at home.
• PAKISTAN . At least 73 are killed in a series of separatist attacks.
• BANGLADESH . Dhaka accuses Delhi of ‘water terrorism.’
• MYANMAR . As junta strongholds fall, China sends troops to the border.
• CHINA. UNITED STATES . Biden sends his chief adviser to Beijing.

Middle East

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE . Security raids and settler violence unnerve the region.?
• ISRAEL. IRAN . Warnings of an imminent strike may be true, or may be false.
• ISRAEL. LEBANON . Hezbollah says its retaliation is ‘complete’. Iran says otherwise.

Africa

• MPOX . Insufficient aid is reaching the source of the outbreak.
• NIGERIA . The economy turns a corner, but the mood remains combustible.
• SUDAN . A dam burst damages supply to the government’s headquarters.
• LIBYA . Khalifa Haftar orders a stop to oil production.

Europe

• BRITAIN . Downing Street seeks Europe’s help on migration.
• SERBIA . A French defence sale won't shift Belgrade from Moscow.
• TECHNOLOGY . Regulators struggle again with social media.
• FRANCE . Macron rules out a left-wing government.
• UKRAINE. RUSSIA . Both sides see an uptick in messages and missiles.

Americas

• HAITI . The stabilisation mission is going worse than claimed.
• MEXICO . A one-term president cements a permanent legacy.
• UNITED STATES . More alleged lawfare will only revive Trump’s chances.
• UKRAINE. RUSSIA . China and India join the race for a peace plan.
• CANADA . Justin Trudeau appears to be losing control.

Happy Spring/Autumn to all.

All the best,

Damien