Summer reading - Thinking in bets by Annie Duke

I read a great book this summer and want to share some of my impressions. The book is "Thinking in bets - making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts" by Annie Duke.

It's not a book about poker, but rather about making decisions about an uncertain future. I felt that framing talked directly to me, and I sure think the future is uncertain, and I have to make decisions all the time.

Annie makes a distinction between the actual decision process and the outcome. That is something many of us mix up. A good (or bad) decision process is actually not directly related to the outcome of the decision.

I enjoyed the comparisons with poker and chess playing. In chess, there is no hidden information, in comparison with poker where you do not have all the facts and thus require different strategies and tactics.

Confidence, uncertainty and luck versus skill, as well as your habits play an important role in the decision process and its outcomes. I also believe that the importance of not falling in love with your own ideas and stay open for new impressions and knowledge (feedback loops) is crucial for good decisions and future outcomes.

(Pictures taken from our summer holidays. We decided to tour the Nordic capitals, so the pictures are from Oslo, Helsinki and Stockholm. Copenhagen is still waiting for us. But any day now :-)