The Summer of "The Best Man?"
Conventional Wisdom (a term which as applied to politics hints at an oxymoron) holds that we’re in for an election contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Given this prospect, many observers yearn for a “reset” in American politics, a “Surprise” in the vein of the pre-election “October Surprise”– something unexpected yet engineered to put one campaign over the threshold of victory at the final hour. But for this match up, might the reset, or the relief, come in the form of a “Summer Surprise” born on respective convention floors?
In the “life imitates art” genre, Gore Vidal’s 1960 play, The Best Man, might be a good primer on this summer’s political conventions. It depicts the Machiavellian back-room actions taken during a convention by two leading contenders for (per the play’s setting) the Democratic nomination. The protagonist is an ostensibly principled and capable, yet flawed, contender (based on Gov. Adlai Stevenson) while his opponent is an unscrupulous, amoral scoundrel (based – in stark contrast to the tenor of posthumous adulation by the likes of William Manchester and Theodore H. White – on Sen. John F. Kennedy). Both are seeking to secure the endorsement of a past President (modeled on Pres. Harry Truman) which will assure the nomination. In the end, a “Dark Horse” emerges as neither front-runner is found to be politically palatable.
This year's Republican Convention will kick off on July 18th in Cleveland – an event which promises to be the most interesting since the Reagan-Ford “Co-presidency” drama of 1980. Let us assume, for the sake of argument, that “The Donald” and Senator Ted Cruz both vanish into the swirl of multiple rounds of balloting (it won’t be quiet but won’t be Chicago ’68 either – it will, however, provide the type of theater that drive CNN and Fox advertising revenues to stratospheric heights). Governor John Kasich’s chances were probably not helped by his failure to pledge to support the GOP’s eventual nominee during a recent Town Hall. Might a candidate (a Bush or a Huckabee) who once exited the arena ("suspended the campaign" in the current vernacular) find the way open for a political resurrection worthy of Lazarus? Is someone, even now, fielding an organization the aim of which is to master the convention process and work the delegates on the floor? What about the second spot on such a ticket? Might another previously vanquished competitor (a Carly Fiorina or a Ben Carson) be pulled forth to complete the team and provide the requisite “diversity?”
The Democratic Convention gets underway exactly one week later on July 25th in Philadelphia (ironically, the same setting for Vidal’s fictional Democratic Convention in The Best Man).
How might the outcome of the Republican event flavor the Democratic Party’s proceedings? What if it is perceived that the Republican Party's anointed duo elicits a collective sigh of relief among the electorate? Absent “The Donald” can Secretary Clinton survive? Her inability to readily dispatch Senator Sanders has exposed a legitimate and fundamental political weakness while hindering a timely pivot towards the center. Whereas simple confusion seems to beguile Republicans, those most likely to exploit any perceived Clintonian weaknesses reside within her own party. Factors include an internecine fissure within the Democratic Party between what might be labeled the Clinton faction and the Kennedy Faction. President Obama is the inheritor of the latter while Bill and Hillary lead the eponymous former.
What if Secretary Clinton’s aspiration falls victim to an indictment or short of a first ballot victory? This might be a disruption which eliminates Senator Sanders’ chances as well. As a result, might one see a team headed by someone like Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren with, say, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker in the VP slot emerge into the home stretch?
What if something like a Huckabee-Fiorina (R) ticket squared off against a Warren-Booker (D) team in the general election? Will the 2016 primary process be reduced to a mere cautionary tale? For one thing, convention generated “resets” in both parties would eliminate the topic of the circumvention of the primary process as a campaign issue in the general election. Might such a "disruption" restore a modicum of “normalcy” (a word seldom applied to national politics) to the process and demonstrate that the pursuit of the presidency, even in this day and time, need not be a continuous, ongoing industry. Bring on the Brokers!