Summary of “The World After Taiwan’s Fall”

Introduction?

The article “The World After Taiwan’s Fall” considers two scenarios of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan: one where the US and its allies do not intervene and a second where the US provides military support but still cannot defend Taiwan. For both scenarios, the authors at Pacific Forum International ask experts from around the world to discuss how their country or region would be impacted by Chinese control over Taiwan. The areas of study are the United States, Australia, Japan, the Korean Peninsula, India, and Europe.

Regional authors express worry about the possibility of nuclear proliferation and the expansion of Chinese power and influence beyond Taiwan. The authors also agree that a US failure to defend Taiwan could lead to a major change in global leadership, with the US falling behind and being seen as untrustworthy among allies. For countries like Japan, South Korea, and India, being so close to China and Taiwan increases the dangers of any type of regional conflict. More distant US allies like Australia and nations of Europe that rely on US defense promises would be forced to build up their own militaries to regain a sense of security.? Aside from discussing the negative impact of an invasion, the article calls on the US and its allies to spend more time and energy on deterrence by adopting Taiwan-friendly domestic policies and investing in military buildup in the Indo-Pacific region.?

Chapter 1

If Taiwan Falls: Future Scenarios and Implications for the United States?

In this first section, expert Ian Easton discusses the impacts faced by the United States in the hypothetical fall of Taiwan. In the first scenario, in which the US chooses not to intervene in the conflict, the United States faces a global and total loss in credibility amongst its allies, who are no longer assured that the US military will defend them against aggressors. Lack of confidence would lead to rapid military build-up and nuclear proliferation among US allies. Without US assistance, Taiwan’s military would not last long against China, meaning that Taiwanese assets such as American-made weapons systems and a semiconductor industry that produces 90% of the most advanced chips in the world would fall into Chinese possession. If the US intervenes and loses, they do not face the same reputational loss among allies, but the idea of “US decline” would be fully cemented. With China’s control over Taiwan, US losses include crucial intelligence on China as well as access to trade not only with Taiwan but also potentially with South Korea and Japan. China will have officially established a sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific, and will likely be emboldened to further expand its control.?

Chapter 2

Chinese Victory Over Taiwan - An Australian Perspective

The Australian perspective, presented by Malcolm Davis, is equally concerned by the prospects of Chinese control over Taiwan. In either scenario, a Chinese victory and resultant sphere of influence will likely see Australia under pressure to submit to consistent CCP demands, such as allowing for PLA military base construction in the Indo-Pacific, permitting Chinese investment into critical Australian utilities, and agreeing to the ten-dash line in the South China Sea that would further expand Chinese sovereignty into vital waters for international trade. Davis suggests that Australia begin to seriously address and begin to prepare for the contingency of a Chinese invasion by increasing collaboration with Pacific partners in Japan and South Korea and deepening cooperation with the US military, potentially even by offering territory in Australia for housing missiles or another US military base.

Chapter 3

China’s Takeover of Taiwan Would Have a Negative Impact on Japan

The third section written by Mitake Kiyama outlines the Japanese point of view, for whom the Taiwan conflict is existential. If the US does not defend Taiwan, Japan would be unable to trust any joint defense promises made between their alliance and would thus be forced to rapidly expand its own military and even nuclear capabilities to contend with future Chinese aggression. If the US chooses to get involved, it will utilize military bases located in Japan to carry out operations, leading to both kinetic and cyber attacks on Japan itself, drawing it into a potential war. Taiwan is vital to Japan’s defense, as it constrains Chinese activity in the Pacific and defends channels of communication and trade, such as the Bashi Channel located to the south of Taiwan. With Taiwan under Chinese control, Japan would not only be potentially cut off from necessary semiconductor imports, but it would also be vulnerable to Chinese trade blockades that could cripple its economy. Without access to such waterways, Japan’s own navy would also be extremely weakened. Kiyama believes that the cost of the Chinese control over Taiwan is “prohibitively high for Japan”, meaning Japan’s greatest priority should be ensuring that should conflict ensue, Japan and its allies will be victorious in defending Taiwan. As with the previous sections, further military cooperation with allies in the region and the US is suggested as a way to strengthen deterrence.

Chapter 4

If Taiwan Falls to China: Implications for the Korean Peninsula

Author Duyeon Kim notes that the first concern would be the withdrawal of US troops in Korea should the US become militarily involved due to the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This could lead to fears of abandonment by Korea and could lead to, though unlikely, Korea pursuing nuclear weapons. In addition, the author argues it would be unlikely the Korean people would support sending Korean troops to defend Taiwan even if the US would request it as they did during the Vietnam War.?

The most immediate negative impact of the fall of Taiwan would be the loss of US hegemony in the region, to be replaced with China. This may encourage China to conduct further acts of aggression in the region or China may conduct a “charm offensive” to influence its neighbors and undo some of the resulting international isolation the invasion would cause. A second concern would be the uncertain nature of how North Korea may act, it may use this opportunity to invade the South while US forces are tied up. This may further push Korea to find alternate means of defending itself, such as requisition to have US nuclear weapons hosted within the country (as is done with NATO), or should China’s hegemony be clear, seek closer ties to China. These developments risk the erosion of democratic values and systems in the region and by extension threaten the liberal world order.? To avoid these negative outcomes, the author proposes a variety of recommendations. The first is to further deter an invasion of Taiwan via “credible threats and credible assurances” to convince both China and other states in the region that the US commitment to the security of the region is steadfast. The second is to build international consensus and partnership in the defense of Taiwan, both militarily or at least politically. Next, the US should communicate its expectations from Korea in the event Taiwan is invaded. Lastly, the US needs to reassure its allies in the region of its commitment and engage with Korea in a discussion of what its role would be in a post-fall of Taiwan world order.?

Chapter 5

The Implications for India of a Successful Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

Concerning India, expert Jabin T. Jacob notes that the greatest negative impact geopolitically is the further loss of US credibility with its allies and partners in the region. This destabilization will make it harder for India to work with states in the region as they may feel they have no choice but to gravitate toward the new hegemon (China). The recommendations by the author are to incentivize the professional study of China and its internal political system and remove the stigma of such a field within India. Further, India and the US must work to spread democratic values abroad (particularly in the region around China) as well as prepare to support each other in a military conflict. The US also needs to work more with the UN and India and less unilaterally if it wants to build more cohesive support against a possible invasion of Taiwan.?

Chapter 6

The Consequences for Europe of a Successful Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

Bruno Tertrais begins by expressing that Europe is incredibly reliant on China, its now largest trading partner, for goods ranging from materials used in green energy to data processing machines to even pharmaceutical ingredients. It is also not entirely united on its views of this over-reliance on China and the risks this may have. However, Europe has taken steps to reduce its reliance on China in key strategic areas such as 5G.?

The author argues an attack on Taiwan is a “redefinition of the international order” and that an assault on the Island would be “a fundamental attack on the international legal order that the EU has committed to uphold.” This connects the security of Asia to the security and prosperity of Europe. Further, a US-China conflict would cause untold economic damage across the world, on top of the possibility of sanctions levied by Europe and the US. Other negative impacts would depend on if the US attempted to defend Taiwan, should America have abstained, Europe would be forced to question the US security guarantee as well as focus on boosting its defense. In light of these facts, Europe must prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan and work to deter it, both economically and militarily.?

Conclusion

The potential invasion and fall of Taiwan is an event that, while seeming distant, is a distinct possibility in the not-so-far future. Recommendations and predictions vary based on the expert, location, and desired outcomes. A common theme across these individual sections is the need for the US to not retreat inward, and to avoid not only the fall of Taiwan but the loss of the credibility of US security agreements. The US must work to build a unified coalition to deter an invasion of Taiwan, both through military and non-military means. The fall of Taiwan would be a tragedy not just for the people of Taiwan, but for all those who benefit from the liberal international world order.