Summary Update on the COPs
As we enter November and with COP 29 just under 2 weeks away, a brief run down of the recent CBD COP16 and the equally recent COP13 / MOP36 event in Bangkok. Also the upcoming UNCCD COP16 in Riyadh (2-13 December) – the biennial forum for reviewing progress to combat desertification.
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CBD COP16 (2024 UN Biodiversity Conference)
“We cannot afford to leave Cali without commitments to build on the substance of the biodiversity framework and without a commitment to mobilize other sources of private and public finance to develop the framework to its full potential”.
Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General
CBD COP16 concluded with countries and organizations affirming their commitments to biodiversity protection, with pledges to support financial mobilization, policy initiatives, and inclusive conservation frameworks.
Strategic goals were set to expand partnerships with Indigenous communities, implement Target 23 with gender-focused biodiversity actions, and establish equitable frameworks for managing genetic resources. These commitments will guide global efforts to achieve the shared goals under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.?
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“There, so far, we have seen a very strong resistance from the richest countries to create a new fund and to contribute to the $700 billion funding gap for biodiversity”
Sergio Chaparro, international coordinator of Dejusticia
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Participants explored practical steps to implement biodiversity goals, such as CGIAR's Agroecosystem Living Labs (ALLs) - supporting biodiversity integration and ecosystem protection in food, land and water systems. CGIAR is the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research – a global research consortium with c. 10,000 scientists and staff, and the world’s most comprehensive collections of genetic resources.
CBD COP16 actions were limited in number, but included some important structural precedents / progress towards the wider Nature Protection goal:
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“By supporting the recognition of ecocide as an international crime, the DRC is showing the way forward for other African nations. This strong stance sends a clear message: protecting our planet and those that come after us must become a global priority”.
Jojo Mehta, Co-founder & CEO - Stop Ecocide International
Indigenous Guards from the mountains of Miraflores, Quinchía, department of Risaralda, Colombia.
Image: Sandra Bejarano Aguirre.
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In a country that is one of the riskiest for land and environmental defenders (79 murdered in 2023, source Global Witness ), the Colombian Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development recently published a statement outlining its strategy to improve the safety of environmental defenders and an increase in the Ministry of Interior Human Rights Directorate budget of nearly 400%.
“These practices are being altered by the promotion of institutional productive packages for economic purposes, by pressure on forest areas for cultivation due to lack of land. These and many other facts have generated an impact on the natural balance that today requires a policy and a thought focused on unlearning practices and focusing on consolidating a practice with environmental and agroecological thinking for life”
Ecocide legislation
Ecocide legislation is also advancing in the EU and Belgium in particular, leading the way with its national ecocide legislation . Proposed ecocide bills are also progressing in several other countries – Mexico, Brazil, Peru, Italy, Netherlands and Scotland.
Stopping the ongoing destruction of the natural environment will require laws and regulations with teeth, alongside societal reforms. Pollution is addressed in various domestic laws, but these laws are patchy, irregular, under-enforced and often corrupted.?
Statutes
Currently, attention is focused on the high profile ICC Statute to add ecocide, although the ICC would likely handle few cases in practice.? The ICC Statute also does not include corporate actors, who would often be the central actors in such crimes, so the cases would be very high profile indeed – potentially dealing with past crimes and their legacy, with all manner of complex issues.
A better route to go down may be incorporation into national laws and regulatory frameworks, where corporate pollution and waste can finally be reined in, with suitably strong threats to their corporate well-being. National systems will better address domestic corporate actors and may set the bar lower for environmental harms less serious than ecocide.? Multinationals also - with international escalation for the perpetrators – by international convention or sufficiently-robust decrees / declarations, adopted into national laws with extra-territorial jurisdiction.
Commercial and Criminal Limits of Responsibility
The crime of ecocide shines a light on environmental harms generally. The message being that significant or routine environmental harm is not a commercial regulatory matter to be dealt with by an administrative fine large or small. Rather, the ongoing destruction of our habitat which all life shares and depends upon, has become one of the greatest threats to species survival. And needs to be dealt with accordingly.
The net effect should be that ecocidal acts committed by enterprises become accepted as “well over the line” of acceptable business practice, as well as acceptable human and corporate behaviour. This by virtue of the consequences (as now appreciated) to the environment and species survival including our own – make these criminal acts and not commercial. ?From deliberate (and de facto) deforestation for agriculture and cattle ranching, to ongoing and ad hoc pollution and degradation of waterways and lands by mining concerns. These crimes typically have greater impacts in the currently less regulated “Global South”, being perpetrated by regional multinationals and those in their employ/ network, and those further afield in the “Global North”.?
Interestingly there will need to be some further action and clarifications down the road - where does one draw the line when it comes to large-scale industrial animal slaughterhouses, for example? Sustainable quotas may become the order of the day – for animals, plants and all species.
COP13/MOP36 (Bangkok)
In 1985, governments adopted the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer —a framework convention that lays out agreed principles to combat ozone depletion. The Vienna COP meets triennially. This was followed in 1987 by the adoption of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer , which phases out both the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances. The Montreal MOPs meet annually. The Montreal Protocol has been adjusted or amended six times since its creation, most recently by the Kigali Amendment in 2016.
The 13th COP to the Vienna Convention (COP13) and the 36th MOP to the Montreal Protocol (MOP36 ) took place this week in Bangkok, Thailand, from 28 Oct to 1 November.
Delegates tackled key questions in enhancing ozone layer and climate protection, including how parties will fund atmospheric monitoring sites to bridge information gaps, manage remaining emissions, and address uncertainties about substances not controlled by the Protocol. Draft decisions were prepared for the following:
UNCCD COP16 (Riyadh)
In 1994, the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD ) was adopted by 196 governments and the EU, committed to combat land degradation and drought.
Meetings of the UNCCD COP have been meeting biennially since 2001, with a biennial budget, as the main forum for negotiating decisions around the sustainable use of land, drought, land desertification and degradation.
Thirty years on, the UNCCD has raised awareness greatly, with efforts towards Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) - with a number of policy frameworks addressing drought, gender, land tenure, sand and dust storms, desertification, land degradation and drought as a migration driver.
Whilst the planet continues to lose 100 million hectares p.a. of land and droughts have increased in number and severity, there have been some notable successes. We are at a key crossroads to going LDN-neutral and then LDN-positive.
UNCCD COP 16 will convene in Riyadh (2-13 December) under the theme “Our Land. Our Future.” The 16th meeting of the Committee on Science and Technology (CST 16) will also convene.
COP 16 will undertake a midterm evaluation of the?2018?2030 Strategic Framework and for the first time, will include an Action Agenda, with voluntary commitments and actions and thematic days.
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Progressing Other Fora for Action
As explored in a recent post , is the current path of the COPs sufficient to achieve true success in mitigating climate change? Or protecting Nature and its biodiversity?
We are in a decisive decade – the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030). What is really needed is greater urgency and greater action alongside. Government actions and COP commitments are great when they happen, but can be slow in progression, by virtue of the processes involved and allied to that, a separate set of funding considerations and processes.
On that note, the above-mentioned CGIAR is also the force behind the Montpellier Process , an attempt to improve the actionability of biodiversity research across the world.
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“Collectively humans have the capacity to solve just about any problem, but when the main decision-making pathways are not working together or as well as they should, sometimes we need to experiment with other fora.”
William G. Moseley, Professor and former steering committee member of the High Level Panel of Experts for Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE-FSN)
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A worthy initiative, and perhaps one that has greater application as we seek to head off existential risks and attract much greater sources and genres of national, institutional and more ‘automatic’ funding.
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Looking Forward to COP29
During the CBD COP16 Summit and ahead of COP29, three key reports were released - published by UNEP, UNFCCC and WMO.
With the very strong message that existing NDCs are inadequate, and continuation of the current pathway will lead to a global temperature rise of up to 3.1°C (by 2100).
Nations must collectively commit to cutting 42% off annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0), paired with delivering action urgently, or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be unachievable within a few years. Currently, climate commitments are not being met, putting the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century. Even if they are met, temperature rise would be limited to 2.6-2.8°C, still bringing debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies.
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“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges. Or the 1.5C goal will soon be dead and 'well below 2°C' will take its place in the intensive care unit”?
“I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to get on a 1.5C pathway.”?
“Even if the world overshoots 1.5C – and the chances of this happening are increasing every day – we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.”?
Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.?
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2. UNFCCC’s 2024 NDC Synthesis Report
To?limit global warming to below 2°C, emissions must fall 28% by 2030 and 37% from 2019 levels by 2035. 2035 is the new milestone year to be included in NDCs 3.0.? This version of the report takes information from the 168 available NDCs, representing 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including the 153 new or updated NDCs as at 9 September 2024.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ?form the basis for countries to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. They contain information on targets, policies and measures for reducing national emissions and on adapting to climate change. They also contain information on the finance, technologies and capacity building for these actions. Countries communicate new or updated NDCs every five years, starting in 2020.
“Another year. Another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers. We are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet”?
Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General
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3. WMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin
On average 44% of CO2?emissions remain in the atmosphere, and 56% are absorbed by the ocean and land ecosystems – although there is considerable year-to-year variability. (see also the Carbon Budget section of my recent post ).
During 2023 and 2024, large vegetation fire CO2?emissions and a possible reduction in carbon absorption by forests, will be responsible for a decrease in the effectiveness of the land CO2 sink. This is most likely a result of the compound extremes/ stressors affecting the Amazon and Southern Africa (El Ni?o following a triple La Ni?a). Prolonged stressors include reduced precipitation, increased evapotranspiration, heatwaves, drier vegetation, with wildfires on top of everything else. These have led to direct forest losses, raised emissions / airborne pollution, and reduced efficiency for land carbon sinks. ?
Conclusion
With the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBP), National Plans for Biodiversity (NBSAPs ), Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) , and Nature Finance considerations, it is a busy time for the UN bodies and constituent nations - as they consolidate the various action plans and prepare for a Nature Positive future through concrete actions and commitments.
The "new collective quantified goal on climate finance" (NCQG) is to be agreed and adopted this month, making for a potential landmark COP29.
More support and assistance for the “Global South” countries will be needed – to turn greater climate and Nature Protection ambitions into reality. In addition to working through recent climate emergencies and adaptation.
The recent Kazan Declaration ?might be seen as a portent for a fiery COP29 - a ‘shot across the bows’ regarding the “Global North's” current approach. In this regard, the BRICS are showing clear intent to go their own path – not in the wrong direction but with a wider ambit for member countries. Far from advocating for a break from the current international architecture, the Kazan Declaration is confirmatory:
“[W]e reaffirm our commitment to multilateralism and upholding the international law, including the Purposes and Principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations (UN) as its indispensable cornerstone, and the central role of the UN in the international system”.
Keeping an open mind and being flexible will preserve opportunities for more substantial dialogue on Nature Protection and Nature Finance – one of the most important objectives in the short term. Some better “mood music” will better serve the interests of Nature, the future generations and those most affected by climate.
As President Ruto has stated, “no action is dangerous”, given where we are headed.
“The lengthy discussions at COPs with its stalling, delaying tactics and procrastination, that have hampered implementation and delivery is simply cruel and unjust. We cannot afford to spend more time skirting around the real issues, and we must break out of the open ended process-focused discussions we are trapped in..... In the face of impending catastrophe, whose warning signs are already unbearably disastrous, weak action is unwise. No action is dangerous.”
William Ruto, President of Kenya
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Nations may fundamentally disagree on how, when, the previous history, who pays and so on.
But there are no free rides and a rich nation or corporate with ‘clean hands’ is very rare.
Nations have reached highly effective global agreements in the past – nuclear non-proliferation; the Montreal protocol to close the ozone hole, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.
Greater ambition and greater commitment to the existential mission are needed.
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Postscript
The next post(s) will explore Humanity-Earth system problems and solutions in the round.
For example:
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Recent posts:
An Update on the 2024 COPs ??1.11.2024
Global Nature Financing - As we enter November and with COP 29 just under 2 weeks away, a brief run down of the recent CBD COP16, the recent COP13/MOP36 in Bangkok and recent publications/ announcements. Also the upcoming UNCCD COP16 in Riyadh (2-13 December) – the biennial forum for reviewing progress to combat desertification.
The Global Call for Ecosystem Restoration continued - In this decisive decade, our challenge is to scale up conservation, restoration and Nature Protected Areas. Greater finance for Nature is the goal - And it may come from some unexpected sources!
The 2024 COPs and Climate Finance Solutions 20.10.2024
Global Climate Financing - The 2024 COPs provide a historical opportunity to garner much greater financial commitments for climate action. The way forward is to create a centralised Common Wealth or Environmental Funds sector - with ongoing funding that is automatic, rather than piecemeal and hard-fought.
Restoring Nature’s Green and Blue Lungs 13.10.2024
A Global Call for Ecosystem Restoration - There has never been a more urgent need to restore ecosystems - both terrestrial and marine - than now. In this decisive decade, the challenge is to scale up the quantity and quality of projects, and redirect greater finance to nature, for as much impact as possible.
The sheer number and severity of recent extreme weather events is a sign of things to come.? With COP29 just a month away, what are the world's leaders going to do about it?
With just 6 weeks to go, the world’s nations are set to decide on a new climate-finance goal, to go beyond the $100 billion per year target set at COP15 in 2009.
Alongside the massive expansion (and funding) of land restoration and regenerative agriculture schemes and the reduction of CO2, are other solutions on the horizon?
Despite a slew of international accords over the past three decades, along with 28 COPs, the rate of decline continues. Focus has diverted away from direct physical solutions, towards technological and market solutions supporting short-term decarbonisation. Yet we have the solutions and available funding.
The Environmental Imperative 15.9.2024
The?tipping risk elements of the Earth system, their nature and interdependence, and how to mitigate these risks going forwards
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