Summarize the Petroleum Coke Market in China from January to October 2022

The demand is growing rapidly, the supply and demand of petroleum coke is unbalanced, and the price is high and volatile

Market overview: From January to October 2022, the overall performance of China's petroleum coke market is good. The coke price shows a trend of "rising-falling-stable". Supported by downstream demand, although the price of petroleum coke has fallen in the later period, it is still at a historical high. In 2022, the supply of petroleum coke will increase slightly from the previous month. However, due to factors such as the Winter Olympics, the surge in international crude oil prices, and the prevention and control of the epidemic, refineries will cut production ahead of schedule in the first quarter; the output will resume in the second quarter. increase, the supply of low-sulfur coke is still tight. The downstream electrolytic aluminum production has generally maintained growth. Power cuts in Sichuan, Yunnan and other local areas have led to production reductions, and aluminum prices have generally remained stable; the demand for carbonizers and graphite electrodes has been weak, and the demand for negative electrode materials has surged, resulting in the price differentiation of low-sulfur petroleum coke in local areas. . Fuel petroleum coke has been greatly affected by the international market. High-sulfur coke used in cement has been upside down for a long time. The traditional Saudi Arabia and U.S. high-sulfur fuel coke imports have decreased, but Venezuelan petroleum coke has been imported as a supplement. Low-sulfur pellet coke is in short supply and high in price. The type of fuel used in glass has been adjusted.

Price trend

1. Medium- and high-sulfur petroleum coke: From January to October 2022, the market price of petroleum coke in China will show a trend of “rising-falling-stable” as a whole. As of October 19, the reference price of petroleum coke was 4,581 yuan/ton, up 63.08% from the beginning of the year. Affected by various factors such as production restrictions during the Winter Olympics from January to April, restrictions on transportation due to epidemic control, and the surge in global energy prices affected by Russia and Ukraine, the overall refining cost of refineries has increased, and many refinery coking units have been affected by this and reduced production. , Some refinery units were shut down for maintenance in advance, the market supply was greatly reduced, and coke prices rose sharply. In addition, some refineries along the Yangtze River supply medium-sulfur petroleum coke for negative electrode production. Under the same indicators, the price of petroleum coke has gradually increased; Coking units that had been shut down and reduced production in the early stage resumed production one after another. However, in order to reduce costs, some refineries purchased low-priced crude oil for production to reduce costs. The overall petroleum coke indicators in the market deteriorated, and a large number of imported petroleum cokes arrived in Hong Kong, mainly imported from Venezuela, the United States, The supply of medium and high sulfur petroleum coke in Russia, Canada and other countries has increased, but it is mainly medium and high sulfur petroleum coke with vanadium>500PPM, and the domestic downstream aluminum industry has successively controlled trace elements, high vanadium (vanadium>500PPM ) The price of petroleum coke fell sharply, and the price difference between low-vanadium and high-vanadium petroleum coke gradually widened. Since June, as the price of petroleum coke continued to drop, downstream carbon enterprises have successively entered the market to purchase. However, due to the long-term high price of raw material petroleum coke this year, the downstream cost pressure is relatively large, and more purchases are made on demand, and the price of medium and high sulfur petroleum coke continues to fluctuate.

2. Low-sulfur petroleum coke: From January to June, the production capacity of negative electrode materials expanded, the market demand increased sharply, and the demand for low-sulfur coke increased significantly. In April, affected by the expected shutdown of CNOOC’s refinery for maintenance, the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke continued to rise. Operation; starting in July, high temperature power cuts, downstream steel mills have poor market performance, production cuts and shutdowns, downstream graphite electrodes have reduced production and partially shut down in response to this situation, the negative material market low-sulfur petroleum coke price support is limited, low-sulfur coke Prices fell sharply; the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival began in September, and the low-sulfur coke price rose slightly to support the downstream stocking. However, in the face of the arrival of the 20th National Congress, the downstream was cautious in receiving goods, and the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke was mainly stable, and some adjustments were made. .

3. In terms of fuel coke, the global energy price will rise sharply in 2022, the external price will fluctuate at a high level for a long time, and the long-term cost of high-sulfur projectile coke will be upside down. . The price of low-sulfur projectile coke is high, and the demand for petroleum coke in the glass fuel market has been adjusted.

Supply side

1. From January to October 2022, the production capacity of the delayed coking unit will increase slightly, and the production capacity change will be concentrated in September. A set of 500,000 tons/year coking unit in Shandong will be shut down, and a set of 1.2 million tons/year coking unit in Northwest China will be put into production of coke;

2. From January to September 2022, China's petroleum coke production increased by 2.13% year-on-year from January to September 2021, of which self-consumption totaled 2.9736 million tons, an increase of 14.88% year-on-year in the same period in 2021, mainly due to the addition of two new coking units in Shandong. The production and resumption of production in June 2021 and November 2021, respectively, will increase the supply of petroleum coke in the market. However, throughout the year, the increase in petroleum coke production is mainly due to the increase in medium and high sulfur petroleum coke, mainly due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices. The refining cost of refineries has increased. In order to reduce costs, some refineries use low-priced crude oil, and petroleum coke is used as a by-product of the coking unit. This operation indirectly leads to the deterioration of the overall indicators of the petroleum coke market. Baichuan Yingfu statistics from January to September 2022. Petroleum coke production increased by 2.38% year-on-year from January to September 2021.

3. From January to August 2022, the amount of imported petroleum coke was 9.1273 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.16%. According to Baichuan Yingfu’s understanding, it is expected that the amount of imported petroleum coke will continue to increase from September to the end of the year, and the supply of imported petroleum coke is expected to increase. Continue growing.

Demand side

1. In terms of the carbon market for aluminum, the price of terminal electrolytic aluminum has reverted to a high level of 18,000-19,000 yuan / ton, and the overall profit potential of the electrolytic aluminum industry still exists; the downstream aluminum carbon market has been operating at a high level for a long time, and the overall market demand for petroleum coke Good, but subject to the "one month price adjustment" sales model, the superimposed raw material petroleum coke price has been high for a long time, and the cost pressure is relatively large, and the purchase is mainly on demand.

2. In the carbon and anode material market for steel, the steel market has been in general for a long time, and the downstream graphite electrode market is mainly purchased on demand. Affected by the high temperature weather from July to August, some steel markets have reduced or stopped production, and the supply side of graphite electrode enterprises has decreased. Output, the market demand for graphite electrodes has declined significantly. In September, the electrode market has gradually recovered, and the market demand has increased; the market demand for recarburizers has been stable; the state has vigorously supported the development of the new energy industry, the negative electrode material market capacity has expanded rapidly, and the demand for petroleum coke has increased significantly. To save costs, some companies develop new processes to use medium and high-sulfur petroleum coke to replace low-sulfur petroleum coke, thereby reducing costs.

3. In terms of fuel coke, the global energy price will rise sharply in 2022, the external price will fluctuate at a high level for a long time, and the long-term cost of high-sulfur projectile coke will be upside down.

Market outlook

1. From the perspective of petroleum coke supply, the supply of petroleum coke in the market is expected to continue to increase, and the new coking units will be put into production in the later stage. Supply With the integration of production capacity and the production of low-sulfur fuel residue by some refineries, the market supply is expected to remain tight. Domestic enterprises' demand for petroleum coke will continue to increase, and it is expected that the number of imported petroleum coke will continue to grow.

2. In terms of downstream demand, Baichuan Yingfu expects that the demand for petroleum coke in the downstream industry will continue to increase by the end of 2022 and in 2023. Affected by the tension in the international situation and the subsequent reduction in Saudi Arabia and OPEC crude oil production, crude oil prices are expected to remain high, the cost segment is well supported, while downstream electrolytic aluminum production is expected to continue to increase, and the industry's overall demand for petroleum coke continues to show a growing trend; The new investment in the market is rapid, and the demand for petroleum coke is expected to continue to increase; the price of coal is expected to fluctuate within a controllable range due to the impact of national macroeconomic policies, and the market demand for glass, cement, power plants, electrodes, and carburizers is expected to remain average.

3. The epidemic prevention and control policy is expected to still exert a greater influence in some areas, mainly restricting the transportation of automobiles, and the superimposed power curtailment and energy consumption dual control policies are expected to still have an impact in some areas, and the overall impact on the market is expected to be limited.

On the whole, it is expected that the price of petroleum coke will continue to fluctuate at a high level by the end of 2022 and in 2023. It is estimated that the main price range of petroleum coke is 6000-8000 yuan/ton for low-sulfur coke (about 0.5% sulfur), 3400-5500 yuan/ton for medium-sulfur coke (about 3.0% sulfur and less than 500 vanadium), and 3400-5500 yuan/ton for medium-sulfur coke (sulfur or less). 3.0% or so, vanadium>500) price is 2500-4000 yuan / ton, and high-sulfur coke (about 4.5% general cargo) price is 2000-3200 yuan / ton.