Sugarcane Support Price, NEPRA Surcharge, Urea Import, PTI Intra-Elections, Govt Borrowing, Indian Rice Exports.

TOPLINE

• Farmers rejected the Punjab government's sugarcane support price of Rs 400 per maund for the crushing season 2023-24, demanding an increase to at least Rs 100 per maund. This demand was by Kissan Board Pakistan.
• NEPRA has approved a surcharge of Rs 1.52 per unit on Karachi Electric (KE) consumers to recover Rs 24.5 billion over 12 months, starting from December 2023.
• The ECC approved the import of 220,000 tonnes of urea from Azerbaijan, granted Rs 754 billion in cash credit limits to Punjab and Sindh for essential commodity procurement, and approved a gas price increase from January.
• The ECP nullified the intra-party polls of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) held in June last year, directing the party to conduct a fresh election within 20 days to retain its electoral symbol, the bat.
• Government borrowings from banks for budgetary support have surged nearly fourfold during the first 4 months of the current fiscal year, reaching Rs 2,363.7 billion compared to Rs 507.8 billion in the same period last year.
• The 5% broken parboiled variety from India was quoted at $500 to $507 per ton, up from the previous week. The increase in prices in Thailand and Vietnam has led buyers to turn to India, even willing to pay export duty.

COMMODITIES - CROPS, LIVESTOCK & HORTICULTURE

• Sugarcane Growers Demand More: Farmers reject the Punjab government's sugarcane support price of Rs 400 per maund for the crushing season 2023-24, demanding an increase to at least Rs.100 per maund, citing high prices of agricultural inputs. The demand was raised by Kissan Board Pakistan. [BR]
• Licensing Committee's Pricing Review: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is set to increase the prices of tax stamps used by documented cigarette manufacturers and other sectors operating under the track and trace system. The FBR has reconstituted the licensing committee to review the prices of tax stamps, which is expected to lead to an increase. [BR]
• BYD and Pakistan: EV Investment Prospects - Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker BYD Co Ltd is in talks with the Pakistani government and potential local partners to explore investment opportunities in the country's emerging EV sector. The Board of Investment (BoI) stated that BYD has expressed interest in investing in Pakistan during a recent visit by its delegation. [The News]
• Vegetables Export: Rs 4.4 billion was the export value of vegetables in Oct 2023, down 41.7% compared to Rs 7.5 billion in Oct 2022, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. [ET]

AGRI-INPUTS, WEATHER, WATER & POWER

• PLL Seeks Urgent LNG: January Gap - Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) has issued a tender seeking a spot LNG cargo to address the gas deficit in January. Interested parties have four days (November 20-24) to apply for a cargo on a delivered-ex-ship (DES) basis to Port Qasim in Karachi, with the delivery windows set for January 8-9. The tender is exempt from response time and bid validity time under PPRA rules. The move comes amid increased LNG prices due to global geopolitical factors and advance procurement by EU countries. [BR]
• Power Billing Woes: NEPRA's Rs 1.52 Decision - NEPRA has approved a surcharge of Rs 1.52 per unit on Karachi Electric (KE) consumers to recover Rs 24.5 billion over 12 months, starting from December 2023. This surcharge is aimed at covering financial obligations, but some consumers argue that they are already paying surcharges for the recovery of Pakistan Power Hub Power Limited (PPHPL) costs, which are not due to any inefficiencies of K-Electric. [BR] [Dawn]
• CPPCL Navigates Conditions for Gwadar Power: Chinese firm CIHC Pak Power Company (CPPCL) is reportedly ready to start work on a 330 MW imported coal power project in Gwadar, subject to conditions set by the Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB) and National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA). The decision follows China's refusal to initiate a project based on Thar coal. CPPCL submitted a revised tariff petition to NEPRA based on the advice of PPIB. The company emphasized the need for an approved rational tariff before formally commencing construction. [BR]
• Auto Sector Assurance: Import Quota Extension Considered - The government is considering extending import quotas for new entrants in the automotive sector until June 30, 2023, addressing concerns about the lack of clarity in the CKD ordering process. This move aims to prevent the suspension of operations after December 31, 2023, and follows the directive of the Apex Committee of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) to update on the auto sector's localization and exports without interruption. [BR]
• ECC Greenlights Urea Import & Cash Credit for Provinces: The ECC approved the import of 220,000 tonnes of urea from Azerbaijan, granted Rs 754 billion in cash credit limits to Punjab and Sindh for essential commodity procurement, and approved a gas price increase from January. However, it rejected a proposed hike in prices for 262 medicines and declined to waive interest on a $25 million loan to Nadra for digital ID cards. [BR] [Dawn]
• Farmers' Woes: Disparity in Gas Subsidy Benefits Examined - Government officials accuse fertilizer manufacturers of profiting from cheaper gas without passing on benefits to farmers, highlighting a disparity in the intended purpose of subsidized natural gas. Despite the goal of providing affordable fertilizers to farmers, prices in the market continue to rise, as noted in a recent Economic Coordination Committee meeting. [Dawn]
• Glacier Monitoring in Hunza Valley: Tariq Jamil, 51, is actively measuring the movement of a glacier in the Hunza valley, utilizing sensors and cameras near the Shisper glacier. His goal is to mobilize the 200 families in Hassanabad to address the growing threat to their village and way of life from unstable lakes formed by melting glacier ice, and he plans to enable village representatives to monitor the data through their mobile devices [Dawn]
• AQI Concerns Prompt Weekend Shutdown of Schools in Punjab: The caretaker Punjab government has opted to close all educational institutions on Friday and Saturday in six divisions of the province, aiming to address the smog-related challenges. The decision affects Lahore, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Multan, Sahiwal, and Sargodha divisions. Caretaker Punjab Chief Minister Mohsin Naqvi explained that the move aims to break the cycle of higher air quality index (AQI) levels in the morning compared to the evening. [BR]

AGRI UPDATES & PAKISTAN POLICY

• ECP's Decision: PTI Re-Election - The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has nullified the intra-party polls of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) held in June last year, directing the party to conduct a fresh election within 20 days to retain its electoral symbol, the bat. The ruling comes amid heightened election campaigns as general elections are approaching in about two months, with the PTI alleging an uneven playing field and characterizing the ECP's decision as an attempt to keep Imran Khan and his party away from the polls. [Dawn]
• Zardari: No Key Role for Nawaz Sharif in Next Government - Former President Asif Ali Zardari anticipates the formation of a "national unity government" after the upcoming general election, expressing confidence that the Feb 8 elections will be held on time. Zardari ruled out the possibility of PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif playing a leading role in the next government and criticized Imran Khan, accusing the PTI chief of attempting to keep him out of politics and manipulating the 2024 elections to extend his rule. [Dawn]
• ECP Prepares for February 8 Elections with Army Security: The Election Commission of Pakistan has announced its readiness for the general elections on February 8 and has directed the acquisition of army services to ensure voter security. The commission has completed hearings on constituency delimitation and will publish the final list by November 30. It emphasized the need for timely alternative security arrangements, including the services of the Pakistan Army if there is a shortage of police personnel. [The News]
• Structural Reforms Emphasized: BISP & PSDP Project Transfers - Caretaker Finance Minister Dr. Shamshad Akhtar discussed plans to transfer BISP responsibility and hand over provincial PSDP projects to address rising public debt, emphasizing the need for economic growth supported by structural reforms. No positive developments on the public debt burden were reported from multilateral and G-20 fronts, but a $2.4 billion arrangement with China until 2024-25 was highlighted. [BR] [The News]
• Government Borrowings Skyrocket: Fiscal Concerns Mount - Government borrowings from banks for budgetary support have surged nearly fourfold during the first 4 months of the current fiscal year, reaching Rs2,363.7 billion compared to Rs507.8 billion in the corresponding period last year, according to data from the State Bank of Pakistan. The substantial increase of 365.5% raises concerns about a significant liquidity shortage despite assurances from the caretaker Finance Minister regarding tax collections being on target. [Dawn]
• FBR Forms Committee for Data Integration to Expand Tax Base: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has formed a high-level technical committee, consisting of officials from the National Database and Registration Authority (Nadra) and FBR, to integrate data for the purpose of broadening the tax base. The committee, headed by the chairman of Nadra, aims to enhance collaboration and exchange data to assess the actual income of existing taxpayers, register new taxpayers, and establish tax profiles for non-filers. [BR]
• Optimism Abounds: Pakistan's Risk Premium Declines Sharply - Pakistan has regained the confidence of global investors, with the country's risk premium experiencing a substantial decline from its peak of over 14% in June. Additionally, the prices of Pakistan's dollar-denominated Eurobonds have notably risen. Mohammed Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, highlighted on the social media platform X that the country's risk premium has fallen significantly to the current level of 3.35%, indicating growing investor confidence, particularly post-IMF standby arrangement (SBA). [ET]

INTERNATIONAL – OVERVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK

• Gaza Truce: Mediation Prevails Despite Last-Minute Hitch - A temporary halt in Israeli aggression against Gaza, facilitated through Qatari, Egyptian, and American mediation, is expected to commence this morning after a delay caused by a last-minute issue. Concurrently, the head of Gaza City's Al Shifa hospital, a focal point of military action, was arrested by Israeli forces. Qatar announced that the pause would start on Friday at 7 am GMT, with the release of the first batch of 13 prisoners, consisting of women and children from the same families, approximately nine hours later. [BR] [BR] [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET] [Dunya] [Al Jazeera] [CNN] [Reuters] [TOI] [NDTV]
• Bangladesh Opposition Faces Wave of Convictions: Bangladeshi courts have convicted over 400 officials and activists from the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, with 98 sentenced recently, mainly in absentia. The BNP alleges politically motivated charges, claiming an attempt to crush the only viable opposition to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who seeks a fourth consecutive term in the upcoming January 7 general election. [Dawn]
• Buyers Turn to India as Rice Prices Rise Elsewhere: The prices of parboiled rice from India continued to rise this week as buyers favored the more affordable Indian variety amid increasing rates in other major hubs. The 5% broken parboiled variety from India was quoted at $500 to $507 per ton, up from the previous week. The increase in prices in Thailand and Vietnam has led buyers to turn to India, even willing to pay export duty. Traders in Vietnam are concerned about low crop supplies, contributing to the demand for Indian rice. [BR]
• Dubai Climate Talks: IEA's Call and China's Oil Demand Outlook - At the UN climate talks in Dubai, the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights a pivotal decision for oil and gas companies, urging them to choose between contributing to the climate crisis or embracing the clean energy transition. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasizes the significance of this "moment of truth" for the industry, while China's oil demand growth is expected to ease to approximately 4% in the first half of 2024, with projections indicating an average of 17.1 million barrels per day for the full year, reflecting a 3.9% increase from 2023. [BR] [BR] [BR]
• NED Far-Right Surge: Geert Wilders Wins Big, Targets Immigration - Far-right populist Geert Wilders, aiming to become the next prime minister of the Netherlands, emphasized a focus on curbing immigration following a significant election win. His victory serves as a warning to mainstream parties in Europe ahead of the European Parliament elections in June, which are expected to center around similar issues such as immigration, cost of living, and climate change. [ET] [Reuters] [France 24] [CNBC] [TOI] [CNN] [NYT] [POLITICO]
• Opinion: The Unsettling Lesson of the OpenAI Mess - “A powerful A.I. is developed. Its designers are thrilled, then unsettled, then terrified. They go to pull the plug, only to learn the A.I. has copied its code elsewhere, perhaps everywhere. Two signal events have happened in A.I. in recent weeks. One of them you’ve heard about. The nonprofit that governs OpenAI, the makers of ChatGPT, fired Sam Altman, the company’s chief executive. The decision was unexpected and largely unexplained.” - By Ezra Klein [NYT]
• Oil Prices Slide 1% Amid OPEC+ Meeting Delay: Oil prices fell about one percent on Thursday, continuing losses as OPEC+ postponed its policy meeting, raising expectations that output cuts might not be deepened next year. Brent crude futures dropped 61 cents to $81.35 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude slid 78 cents to $76.32, extending losses from the previous session. [Dawn]

PAKISTAN - REMAINDERS

• Pakistan Targets $12-15 Billion in IT Exports: I.T. Minister, Dr. Umar Saif, unveiled the first-ever IT and ITeS export strategy on Thursday, aiming to increase Pakistan’s IT exports to $10 billion in the next 3 years. Dr. Saif noted that the country has the potential to increase exports to $12-15 billion. [BR] [Dawn]
• Bail Revoked: Asad Qaiser Arrested Again in Charsadda Case - Former National Assembly speaker Asad Qaiser, recently granted bail by an anti-corruption court, was re-arrested on Thursday in connection with a May 9 case registered in Charsadda district. [Dawn]
• Bahria Town Karachi Case: SC Directs Rs 35 Billion Transfer to Government - The Supreme Court of Pakistan has directed the transfer of Rs 35 billion, part of the Bahria Town settlement, to the federal government. The order came during the hearing of the Rs 460 billion Bahria Town Karachi settlement case, with the court instructing the National Bank of Pakistan to remit the amount to the government and confirm the transfer to the registrar. [Dawn]
• Opinion: Oil as a Weapon - “Since the Gaza Israel War there is a lot of pressure on the Arabs in the MENA region to use their oil wealth and the power they wield from it to coarse Israel into a ceasefire and withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Understanding the dynamics of the oil market and the forces that dictate it would thus give us a better outlook of the position of the oil-producing states.” - By Aneela Shahzad [ET]