Sudan's Power Struggle: A Nation at the Crossroads and Its Impact on Regional Stability

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The ongoing crisis in Sudan, rooted in the country's complex and troubled history, has significant implications for the nation and the broader region. As an author and expert in international development and humanitarian response with an extensive understanding of the Sudanese context, I can assist anybody who requires further background to understand better how to support the Sudanese people.

The current power struggle between General Abdel-Fattah Burhan and General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) has raised concerns about regional stability. Both generals have played roles in the Darfur conflict, which involved the genocide of African-origin tribes in Darfur by the self-identified Arab Janjaweed militia (United Nations, 2023a). Hemedti gained notoriety as a key member of the Janjaweed, which the International Criminal Court (ICC) has charged with committing acts of genocide (The Guardian, 2023). Burhan, the head of the Sudanese army and the country's de facto ruler, has also been implicated in the Darfur genocide (United Nations, 2023a). Under his leadership, the Sudanese army was involved in the conflict, and human rights groups criticized him for suppressing pro-democracy activists (United Nations, 2023a).

A disagreement over the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), under the command of Hemedti, joining the Sudanese army is the immediate root of the issue between Burhan and Hemedti (United Nations, 2023b). Tensions between the two factions escalated when the RSF began deploying its members across the country and in the capital, Khartoum, without the expressed permission of the army (United Nations, 2023b). However, the underlying cause is a power struggle between these two generals, who seem unwilling to relinquish their authority and influence.

The crisis between Burhan and Hemedti has already significantly affected Sudan's population. The fighting in Khartoum and other parts of the country has led to numerous casualties (United Nations, 2023a). Although precise figures are hard to come by in a rapidly evolving situation, the United Nations (UN) has reported that thousands of people have been displaced by the violence, with many seeking refuge in schools and other public buildings (United Nations, 2023a). Additionally, humanitarian organizations find it increasingly challenging to access affected areas and supply life-saving assistance to those in need (United Nations, 2023b).

The ongoing power struggle between General Abdel-Fattah Burhan and General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) in Sudan carries a dangerous risk of escalating into an ethnic conflict with potentially disastrous consequences akin to the Rwandan genocide. Both generals have previously been implicated in the Darfur conflict, which saw the targeting of African-origin tribes by the Arab Janjaweed militia. Given this history and the deep-rooted ethnic divisions in Sudan, there is a legitimate concern that the current crisis could spiral into a full-blown ethnic war, leading to widespread violence and the potential for ethnic cleansing.

Hemedti's earlier threat to turn the capital into a "deserted capital" is a stark reminder of the potential consequences of unchecked aggression and the escalation of the current conflict. The international community must remain vigilant and proactive in its response to the crisis, promoting dialogue and a peaceful resolution to the power struggle to prevent a catastrophic repeat of past ethnic conflicts, such as the one witnessed in Rwanda.

Sudan shares borders with several countries, including Chad, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Libya, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic. The crisis in Sudan has the potential to spill over into neighboring countries and further destabilize an already fragile region (United Nations, 2023a).

Chad, for example, has already closed its border with Sudan in response to the escalating violence (The Guardian, 2023). The situation in Chad is already precarious, with ongoing security challenges and humanitarian needs. The conflict in Sudan could exacerbate these issues, leading to a further deterioration of the situation in Chad (United Nations, 2023a).

Egypt, another important regional player, is also closely watching the developments in Sudan. The recent capture of a couple of Egyptian soldiers in northern Sudan has raised concerns about the potential impact of the crisis on Egyptian security (United Nations, 2023a). Furthermore, the two countries share the Nile River, which is crucial for their water resources. Any disruption to the cooperation between Egypt and Sudan regarding water management could have severe consequences for both nations (United Nations, 2023a).

Ethiopia, Sudan's neighbor to the east, is still reeling from a two-year war in the Tigray region (United Nations, 2023a). The unrest in Sudan could further strain Ethiopia's ability to address its internal challenges and maintain regional stability. Additionally, Sudan has been a critical player in the ongoing negotiations between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a source of tension between the two nations (United Nations, 2023a). A destabilized Sudan may hinder the resolution of this dispute.

South Sudan, which gained independence from Sudan in 2011, has experienced ethnic fighting and instability since its formation (United Nations, 2023a). The current crisis in Sudan could threaten the uneasy peace in South Sudan, potentially leading to a resurgence of violence and humanitarian crises in the young nation.

The Sudan situation, which has the potential to destabilize Central Africa, also provides a chance for external countries like Russia to increase their influence in the area. Russia has demonstrated an increasing interest in Africa in the past two decades, attempting to establish a foothold through economic and military ties. Russia is particularly interested in the mining industry, which is rich in natural resources such as gold, diamonds, and other essential minerals.

In the Central African Republic, General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), a key actor in Sudan's current power struggle, has also claimed to have prevented a coup attempt in the neighboring Central African Republic (CAR) (Middle East Eye, 2023). Hemedti's presence in CAR emphasizes the regional ramifications of Sudan's dilemma and the potential for the war to expand beyond borders.

Russia's involvement in Sudan, notably in the gold mining industry, reflects its desire to create a more prominent regional presence. During the Trump administration, the United States' indifference to Africa created a vacuum that allowed China and Russia to enhance their regional footprint. The present power struggle between General Abdel-Fattah Burhan and Hemedti may create a power vacuum, which Russia may use to strengthen its position in Sudan and the wider Central African area. A considerable increase in Russian influence might have enormous geopolitical ramifications and destabilize the region.

Furthermore, Russia's engagement in Sudan's mining industry might have environmental and social ramifications for the local community since natural resource exploitation frequently results in relocation, land degradation, and pollution. The international community must carefully monitor the emerging crisis in Sudan, its possible geopolitical ramifications, and the repercussions for the region's natural resources and people's well-being.

In light of these regional dimensions, it is crucial for the international community to closely monitor the situation in Sudan and work towards supporting the Sudanese people as they navigate the challenges ahead. Regional and international actors should collaborate to address the root causes of the conflict and promote a peaceful, just, and inclusive future for the people of Sudan and the broader region (United Nations, 2023a).

I am happy to provide further analysis, context, and suggestions for international actors to visualize the best ways to support the Sudanese people and maintain regional stability during this critical period.

References:

Middle East Eye. (2023). Sudan's Hemedti boasts of thwarting coup in Central African Republic. Retrieved from https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sudan-central-african-republic-hemeti-boasts-thwarted-coup

The Guardian (2023) Sudan's conflict: why is there fighting? What is at stake? Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/27/sudan-conflict-why-is-there-fighting-what-is-at-stake

United Nations (2023a) UN News: The Situation in Sudan Retrieved from https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/04/1135992

United Nations (2023b) UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: Today's top news: Sudan Retrieved from https://www.unocha.org/story/todays-top-news-sudan-1