The Subtle Forces Shaping Our Reality
Victor Lopes Mascarenhas ??
Foresight → Strategy → Design | Regenerative Organization Canvas | Back from the Futures
Nature, Politics, and Media's unusual connection from our Futures to our Pasts.
Buckle up, because this ride through time and perception might just change how you see the world around you.
SHIFTING BASELINE: Nature's Vanishing Act ??
Imagine you're standing on a beach, waves lapping at your feet. The ocean seems vast, teeming with life. But what if I told you that what you're seeing is just a shadow of its former self?
Enter the…
This concept, first described by fisheries scientist Daniel Pauly in 1995, explains how each generation accepts the current state of the environment as “normal”, forgetting or never knowing the abundance that once existed.
We're losing our collective memory of nature's abundance, making it harder to recognize just how much we've lost in so little time.
I remember reading a manuscript from Tom Jobim in Rio's Botanical Garden, and he wrote about the animals that used to live on the beach, and how he would swim across the Rodrigo de Freitas Lagoon from Ipanema to Botafogo to eat icecram. As I read it, I was impressed to know there were big birds, expelled or extinct from the beach, the same for the Lagoon, which no one would swim on, without risking an infection today.
Unfortunately, this is not restrained to real wildlife and nature, in a 70-year analysis made on Disney's animated films shows nature disappearing from the big screen in an unvirtuous loop between reality and fiction.
The shifting baseline syndrome is part of a blindfold that makes it harder for us to recognize the true extent of environmental degradation because we're comparing today's nature to a recent past that was already diminished, rather than to the rich ecosystems of just decades ago. Imagine centuries!
THE OVERTON WINDOW: Reality Framing ???
Now, let's zoom out from nature to society. The Overton Window, named after policy analyst Joseph P. Overton, describes the range of ideas considered "acceptable” in public discourse.
Think of it as a window frame through which we view political possibilities. Ideas within the frame are "politically acceptable," while those outside are radical, unthinkable, or even taboo.
But here's the kicker: this window can be deliberately shifted over time, normalizing once-radical ideas or sidelining important solutions.
Take Climate Change for example — We've gone from "Science" to "Hoax" to "Ok. It's real, but why bother? It will happen anyway."
Today, while the reality of climate change is widely accepted, the window of "acceptable" solutions often excludes the most ambitious and necessary actions to address the crisis.
MANUFACTURING CONSENT: Media's Role ??
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So, who's moving the window and more importantly, why? Enter Noam Chomsky's concept of "Manufacturing Consent."
In essence, this theory argues that the media plays a crucial role in defining what's "normal" [linking back to our shifting baselines] and what's "acceptable" in political discourse [tying into the Overton Window]. Through selective reporting, framing of issues, and the amplification of certain voices over others, the media can shape public opinion in ways that often align with the interests of political and corporate elites.
In other words, the media doesn't just report the news – it shapes our perception of what's newsworthy, what's acceptable, and ultimately, what's possible, following an agenda, for the interests of a few as opposed to the best interests of the whole [society].
In an age where digital oligopolies have the power to censor content freely, we have become too dependent on their good faith. While they demonstrate a more amoral profit-oriented faith.
Pro Tip: Diversify your news sources and always ask, "Who benefits from this narrative?"
4 WAYS TO BREAK FREE! ??
So, where does this leave us? With shifting baselines in nature, a narrow window of political possibilities, and a media landscape that often obscures more than it reveals, it's easy to feel overwhelmed. So, let's narrow it down to ↓
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Let's explore together the Regenerative Organization Canvas, its possibilities, and the challenges of shifting the baseline towards a Regenerative Future.
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See you in the Future!