Substitution, solidarity and sobriety: the 3 “S” to prepare for a winter without Russian gas

In the face of the current energy crisis, which comes on top of a difficult economic, geopolitical and climatic context, each of us – Member States, industrialists, citizens – have to do our utmost to prepare ourselves for the coming winter, in solidarity.?

It is our collective responsibility to think and act at European level and in solidarity so that no one – no household, no employee, no industry, no country – is left behind.?

That is why, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, I have been fighting for Europe to be prepared for all possible scenarios. ?

So that we remain masters of our destiny in the face of new hybrid threats.?

The work started with REPowerEU. And today, the European Commission is adopting a new initiative to ensure security of energy supply for our economy and society.?

Our work is based on a strong triptych: substitution, solidarity and sobriety.?

1.???Optimised substitution efforts

?The first step is to decouple our energy needs from Russia. ?

It is essential to do everything now to find alternatives to Russian gas, for electricity production, for heating, for industry, etc. ?

This started with the diversification of our natural gas supplies. ?

In the first half of 2022, non-Russian LNG imports increased by 21 bcm compared to the same period last year. ?

Non-Russian pipeline imports increased by 14 bcm from Norway, the Caspian Sea, the UK and North Africa. ?

And the Commission has multiplied new partnerships, the latest signed by President von der Leyen on Monday with Azerbaijan. ?

But substitution also means deploying additional capacity beyond gas: to green energy wherever possible; to other energy sources where necessary. ?

Solar and wind power could amount to almost 6 billion m3 this year. ?

But the speed of deploying renewable energy projects, which must be accelerated, risks not being sufficient in the potential event of rationing, i.e. plant closures and short-term work measures. ?

Other options need to be considered.?

Some Member States have already taken action in the electricity sector, with the use of coal-fired power stations or the extension of nuclear power plants. ?

There is also potential in industry, estimated at almost 10% of annual gas consumption, or almost 4 billion m3. ?

For example, in the cement industry, it is possible to use the gases produced during refining as fuel gases, or to increase the energy efficiency of industrial steel-making processes by using oxyfuel. ?

It is therefore important to maximise this diversification potential now.?

We are presenting a scoreboard on how we can do without Russian gas as early as this year. It does not include the role of gas stocks, which will be there to give us the necessary safety cushion if needed. ?

This scoreboard will help us to monitor progress in the coming months, and to make adjustments where necessary. ?

2.???Smart solidarity mechanisms

?Of course, to get through winter, we need solidarity. ?

If we have learned one thing from the early hours of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is the importance of avoiding unilateral decisions by Member States, which weaken our single market and increase the cost of the crisis, rather than cushion it. ??

But for this solidarity to work, each Member State must take its responsibilities. ?

Member States asking for solidarity must demonstrate that they have implemented all the necessary measures to reduce Russian gas demand. ??

This solidarity must be thought out and deployed at European level. By accelerating our joint purchases of gas today and hydrogen tomorrow. Or by coordinating our crisis management tools. ?

But this requires a strong governance structure, because we cannot afford to let Member States pass the buck on this or that decision.?

In this respect, the Commission's proposal requires that each Member State demonstrates that it has made its "best efforts". And there will be an opportunity for discussion at European level, in collegiality and coordination. ?

In addition, we will involve not only the energy industry but also industry specialists in the Member States in the discussions. ?

3.???Orderly energy savings

In the spring we identified a potential energy saving of around 15 billion m3. The markets themselves have led to adjustments as gas demand has already fallen by more than 8% in industry, in particular. ?

But we can undoubtedly do better, by mobilising collective awareness around this common objective. ?

Simple measures, such as lowering the temperature or better maintenance of our boilers, can already result in significant energy savings. ?

Additional incentive mechanisms, such as favourable tariff conditions in exchange for reduced consumption at peak times, can also be offered by energy suppliers. ?

In this context, it was necessary to provide clear guidelines to Member States preparing their contingency plans. ?

Clarifying how to treat industrial sectors and avoiding too heterogeneous approaches between Member States. At the risk of damaging our supply chains and disrupting the functioning of our single market. ?

Thus, we have identified four main criteria to be taken into account: ?

1. Societal criticality: certain key sectors or products are essential to the functioning of society; ?

2. Cross-border supply chains: a dimension that needs to be factored into Member States' contingency plans; ?

3. Potential damage to industrial facilities; ?

4. And possibilities for adjustment of gas consumption, as some sectors have less flexibility in their gas management.?

In a nutshell, again: Europe must do everything in its power to prevent the worst case scenario. ?

Without taboos or constraints, but with a sense of responsibility, to manage the crisis and to prepare our common future.