A Sub Above

By Matthew Gutierrez and Shawn O'Malley · November 25, 2024

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Donald Trump’s pick of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary drove stocks higher and helped lift a big rally in Treasurys on Monday. The S&P 500 is sitting just below its record.

Investors are counting on Bessent, a long-time investor, to reduce risks around tariffs and the budget deficit.

“Markets are interpreting Trump’s pick as positive for the economy, as he could try to steer policies towards the more growth-oriented matters as opposed to more controversial measures,” one analyst noted.

— Matthew & Shawn

Here’s today’s rundown:

Today, we'll discuss the biggest stories in markets:

• It’s been a boring year for stocks…really?
• The rise of Jersey Mike’s to $8 billion chain

This, and more, in just 5 minutes to read.

POP QUIZ

New York City hotel rates soared to a record in September, averaging what cost per night? (Scroll to the bottom to find out!)

Chart of the Day

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In The News

?? Wait, Has It Been a Boring Year for Stocks?

It’s quiet, almost too quiet. There have been plenty of stories and high-flying stocks this year, yet 2024 is on track to be the lowest-volatility year since before the pandemic.?

• We have stocks like Nvidia up 185% year-to-date, the S&P 500 at (or near) record highs, and MicroStrategy outperforming bitcoin with a nearly 500% gain.
• And we had a presidential election and, soon, a new administration — as well as all kinds of geopolitical dynamics — but stock market volatility remains surprisingly low. The counterintuitive stability is driven by divergent stock movements within the S&P 500. Consider:

Correlation impact: Ultra-low correlations between stocks mean individual securities move independently, dampening market volatility. Nvidia and other superstar stocks have dominated, though whole sectors (like consumer staples) have been crushed thanks to Donald Trump’s tariff plans.?

Sector vulnerability: Policy changes could disproportionately affect specific sectors, creating localized market shifts — like the recent surge in financial stocks — without broad market turbulence.

Economic signaling: Low volatility might indicate market confidence or suggest investors underestimate potential systemic risks.

Why it matters:

The low volatility is another reason many elite investors caution against following day-to-day market headlines, many of which can make it seem that volatility (and doom and gloom) is imminent.?Despite all of the noise, markets...