Study about the Future Types of Terrorism Threats : PART 1

Despite of the field losses ISIS has suffered. ISIS stills a major threat to the world.

As I said earlier in my previous articles about ISIS that {ISIS is merely an idea that resulted an organization which still exists strongly in the areas bordering Iraq and Syria}, adding that ISIS‘s organization are looking for new settlement areas. In contrast with their biggest competitor “ Al-Qaeda” also looking for new areas of influence.

Both organizations are working on re-structuring and re-synchronizing with new forms of terrorism such as:

1- Leaderless & Borderless Terrorism

2- Homegrown Terrorism

3. Family Affiliated Terrorism

4- The emergence of hybrid terrorist organizations

During year 2018, ISIS has lost control of its territorial areas inside Iraq, Syria & Libya, as well as the idea of “the Islamic Caliphate” ended, beside “al-Qaeda” being exposed to many security strikes in different countries. However, it is difficult to say that the strength of the terrorist organizations { Al Qaeda and ISIS} has weakened .

However It is strange, that the painful blows received by ‘ISIS organization” have restored some force to al-Qaeda and even it increased its areas of influence. It can be said that the international community will face a new wave of terrorism as both organizations move into new areas of influence.

As well as some of the countries that support terrorism may exploit this new direction to achieve their own interests

Currently, I believe that both organizations {ISIS & Al-Qaeda } are working hard to restore the structure, whether organizational or tactical and intellectual, resulting in the emergence of new terrorism types. Then it will become more difficult than we expect.

Here I would like to talk about the third generation of terrorism:

 Terrorism without leadership it is not a new idea, but it has emerged with the beginning of the weakness of {ISIS &Al-Qaeda}. It opens the door to those who sympathize with the idea of global jihad without any association with any particular terrorist organization.

 The more both organizations {ISIS & AL Qaeda} became weaker due to the pressure of the direct military confrontations plus the weak ability of the two organizations to plan major terrorist operations with strong influence.

The more of increasing tendency to form small terrorist cells of 2-5 people , the risk of forming these cells results in the base of internal causes & religious problems in some countries. These cells pose a growing security risk. Between 2015 and 2018, about 55 cells belonging to ISIS were monitored and dismantled. According to Russian counterterrorism agencies, they destroyed and dismantled 38 cells belonging to ISIS during the first nine months of 2018.

Currently, the most serious are “The Lone Wolves “because the chances of them being caught are very weak before they carry out their terrorist operations.

Because they are individuals who did not belong to any organization before they carried out such operations. They can even be said to be new terrorists going out of nowhere without warning. They are not on the database of security authorities in different countries of the world.

The idea of “the lone wolves” belonging to ISIS organization born after their losses on different fronts and based on the invitation of” Abu Muhammad al-Adnanani” one of ISIS’s leaders which “ In 2014 ,he requested Western Muslims to plan and carry out attacks inside their country rather than to come to Syria or Iraq “ . also This idea was illustrated by the book "Terrorism without Borders" by” Abdullah al-Shibani “on July 2018, which is an important guide and reference for local cells and individual lone wolves to carry out operations worldwide without any contact or orders from the organization.

Homegrown Terrorism: Europe major security concern, with Europe and its security agencies focusing on both

1- Studying & analyzing the return of European fighters to Europe in the previous period up to 2018.

2- Plus what to do with the waves of refugees who have entered the EU countries coming from the Middle East and other countries.

 As a result, during the years 2017-2018, terrorist operations in Europe by European citizens of the second and third generations of Muslim immigrants who have never abroad before to join the fight with ISIS. According to “GLOSSEC “Report of the European Jihad in 2018-09, 30%  of European jihadists were outlaws and formerly accused of theft and drug offenses. Adding to other internal problems such as frustration and unemployment, which are social causes within European societies.

It is as simple as this: a young man or woman living in a status of isolation away from society has not joined any extremist organization before. Suffers from unemployment and a sense of irrelevance in the society which he lives. He  or she spends most of his time using the Internet, making it easy to get into contact with extremist and terrorist ideas over the Internet. This makes it easier for them to turn into a terrorist.

Family Affiliated Terrorism: It is a systematic transfer of extremist thoughts through family members or friendship. This type of terrorism is also not new. There have been many operations in the previous years before the establishment of ISIS . This type of terrorism is the hardest pattern of terrorism in monitoring and discovery because of the strength of the family bonds & relationship and the secrecy among the perpetrators of the terrorist operation.

For ex :   Brother of terrorist  in 2012 attacks “ Abdelkader Merah” killed seven people, including children and soldiers & his brother” Mohamed Merah” killed three soldiers, then shot three children and a teacher at point blank range at a Jewish school in Toulouse {https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/abdelkader-merah-terror-support-trial-2012-gunman-brother-france}

For ex : Khalid El Bakraoui, & Ibrahim El Bakraoui, responsible for  terrorist attacks killed 31 people and injured 300 more in Brussels airport 2016 . connected to ISIS

{ https://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/23/europe/brussels-belgium-attacks-what-we-know/index.html}

For ex : the Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), a local terrorist group loyal to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). A suicide bombing at a police headquarters in the Indonesian city of Surabaya was carried out by a family of five riding on two motorbikes, It came after another family carried out bomb attacks on three churches on Sunday. 2018

{ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44105279}

The emergence of hybrid terrorist organizations: These hybrid terrorist organizations are created by A member of a terrorist organization moves to another organization, whether for {personal& ideological differences or forced due to the geographical transition to another area},  

It represents a danger and a very big challenge to the security services, which used to deal with each terrorist organization separately By understanding their tactics and ideology of each organization. Such cases has happened in Syria specially ,

In cases of hybrid terrorist organization, things will become more complicated to understand their comprehension of methodology and their tactics of terrorist actions as a new type of terrorist organization

END OF PART 1. TO Be Continued

Sherif Omar {{CMAS,CAS ,(cATO?),ATO ,PMC , HECPO LEVEL4,FPOS-I }

HESC-Hostile Environment Security Consulting co.

www.hostile-security-consulting.com

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