Was Streaming Black Widow for Opening Weekend a Good Strategy for Disney?

I'm sure you have seen all the headlines about Scarlett Johansson suing Disney over their decision to simultaneously release Black Widow in theaters and over their streaming service, Disney+. If Johansson's contract didn't have a clause giving her a share of streaming revenues, that is a massive (though unlikely) oversight. However, the broader question we might consider is whether releasing to streaming hurts the overall revenue potential of a blockbuster film, or whether it is a good strategy in a world where people increasingly expect to be able to watch a film in the comfort of their living rooms.

There's a lot of variables at play here that make it an interesting question, including (but not limited to) the number of people willing to pay the extra $30 "Premiere Access Fee" to stream the film, how many of those people would have otherwise paid at the box office, the share of box office revenues paid to the movie producers, how many people watch the streamed film at one sitting, and more, but a few numbers can give us some rough insight.

First, it's important to remember that both total and average US box office revenues tanked in 2020 and have only partially recovered in the first half of 2021. As shown in the chart above, average yearly box office revenues per film dropped by 63% from 2019 to 2020, and while people are starting to head back out to theaters, it's pretty clear we are not going to return to 2019 numbers by the end of 2021.

Second, let's take a look at the revenue numbers for Black Widow compared to other Marvel movies. Black Widow took in just over $80 million in U.S. box office revenues in its opening weekend, and took in another $60 million in "Premiere Access Fees" for home streaming. Based on the $80 million alone, that ranks Black Widow above both Ant Man movies, Thor, the Incredible Hulk, and the first Captain America movie. That's not bad for a year when box office revenues are at unprecedented lows, and if you add in the $60 million made in "Premiere Access Fees," the film ranks above a lot of movies that would be considered extremely successful, including Iron Man, Guardians of the Galaxy, and Spider Man: Homecoming. All of this would suggest that simultaneous release to streaming didn't hurt the performance of Black Widow, though we will have to wait and see how its long-run performance pans out.

It's also worth noting that Marvel movies that focus on a single character (e.g., Thor, Ant Man, The Incredible Hulk) earn less on average than movies that include groups of characters, and movies that are the first in a series (e.g., Iron Man versus Iron Man 2 and Iron Man 3) earn less on average than movies that follow in that series. Taking those factors into account, Black Widow's performance is quite remarkable, and it's a shame that we won't see follow on Black Widow movies. Or will we?...