The Strategy Page - Inflation Chaos Edition
Marc Emmer
President at Optimize | Keynote Speaker at Vistage Worldwide | Forbes & Inc.com Contributor | Expert Strategy Facilitator
Key topics:
Why inflation is a sticky wicket…and, are we addicted to the Federal Reserve?
Economists around the world are reaching a somber conclusion—monetary policy in its current form isn’t cooling the economy as quickly as central bankers expected. A recent study by The Economist suggests the U.S. economy would have to lose 5 million jobs and hit 6.5% unemployment to meet the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The U.S. economy added 339,000 jobs in May. In case you missed it last week, the government revised its Q1 growth estimate to 2%.
Government intervention is a lot like the sugar high from a milkshake. It tastes good going down, only to feel like crap a few hours later. Economist John Mauldin suggests the Fed is caught in an “endless spiral of intervention.”
With elevated inflation rates, even a growing economy feels the pain. For example, artificially low rates accelerated home refinances. Homeowners who locked in low rates feel landlocked, which has translated to fewer houses for sale, less inventory, and higher prices. This has resulted in 21.7% more new home sales in May, after builders projected softer sales this year. Material suppliers, already feeling supply chain shortages, were caught ill-prepared to handle distorted demand.
Markets are fragile and remain completely out of whack.
The wage-price spiral continues in full swing. While employment is cooling, employees still have bargaining power as they try to keep wages in pace with inflation.
All this puts tremendous margin pressure on companies trying to manage supply chains, material costs, and labor. Ongoing conflict with China and Russia is highly inflationary, as near-shore supply chains were not equipped to rival cheap Asian imports. The semiconductor shortage impacts many industries and has no quick fix. It will take 10 years for the U.S. to build anything close to a sustainable infrastructure for semiconductors.
2% inflation anytime soon is pure folly—the Mets have a better chance of winning the World Series. It will take time for the market to reset, and the best thing for our economy may be for the Fed to let markets correct organically. This suggests a more neutral stance and fewer hikes and cuts to interest rates, as well as pulling back on quantitative easing strategies.
We all love our milkshakes, but we need them in moderation.
Microsoft’s next move into AI productivity
It was around the first of the year that ChatGPT burst on the scene. It’s since been revealed that Microsoft has poured over $13 billion into OpenAI. Among other things, it’s Microsoft supercomputers that run ChatGPT.
Microsoft's next move is to incorporate "copilots" into Windows and the 365 Office Suite, which will create PowerPoint slides, organize email, and chart in Excel. There's expected to be a big upgrade to MS Teams this year, making it more user-friendly (that shouldn't be hard to do). In the near term, it's not that AI will replace jobs, but it'll significantly improve productivity.
Costly insurance and safer cars
Natural disasters including Hurricane Ian took a toll on the insurance industry last year. Many insurers have stopped writing higher-risk policies. Premiums are up 7.5% this year across the board and 17% for auto. Both commercial and personal lines have been crushed. There's a bounce-back in the cost of health insurance, after modest increases during COVID. The insurance industry is in turmoil.
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Yet insurers have been preparing for a trend that will shift their economics. A recent Cambridge Mobile Telematics study compared Tesla owners who have a second vehicle, and revealed the same drivers were 50% less likely to be involved in a collision when driving their Tesla. The study pointed to several contributors, but autonomous technologies will materially impact the number of accidents on the road. Electric vehicle sales were up 63% in Q1, with strong production from Tesla and Rivian.
By Marc Emmer for Forbes:?You Can Embrace AI or Compete With It
As artificial intelligence continues to advance rapidly, businesses are beginning to recognize the potential of harnessing it for practical applications. From improving customer service and streamlining processes to create more efficient ways to manage data, AI is revolutionizing how we do business.
By Marc Emmer for Inc:?Why Your Company Should Upgrade to ChatGPT-4
Put billions of dollars of research, time, and effort into developing any artificial intelligence system, and you can expect it to perform complex tasks with a sophistication equal to (or often more than) human expertise.
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Our Strategy Experts
Marc Emmer?is President and Chief Strategist & Facilitator at Optimize Inc. He is an?author, speaker and consultant recognized as a thought leader throughout North America as an expert in strategic planning.
John Morris?is a Senior Strategist & Facilitator at Optimize. He brings experience in venture capital, executive coaching, angel investing, investment banking and financial management to his strategy consulting role.
Empowering Next-Level Success: Leading 5 Vistage Peer Groups of CEOs & Leadership Teams | Strategy & Alignment | Board Member with Diverse Industry Expertise
1 年It looks like we are hostage to the old and outdated models, which were based on certain assumptions of productivity. New technologies have altered the way we operate, but we still measure value additions the same way as we did in the past. The paradigm has shifted. Let’s think if 2% inflation is still the gold standard for policy makers.
Peer Advisory | Executive Coaching | Group Facilitation | Vistage | Business Value Improvement | Workforce Training Fund Express Grant Program Provider
1 年I like the Law of 3 pricing paradigm - which has become so prevalent, for the reason you gave, Marc Emmer.
Helping high-ticket B2B service businesses close MORE deals FASTER at HIGHER PRICES using First-Time Offers that will break your cash register. ?? Podcast Host ?? Multi Best-Selling Author
1 年Great topics Marc Emmer. Inflation is a serious issue. I heard that the only time the FED raised rates during a recession resulted in the Great Depression. Do you know if that's true?