The Strategy Page: Bonds, DOGE and China's Decline

At a glance:

1. The #Bond Market’s Hidden Influence
2. In #Elon We Trust?
3. The End of China’s Rise
4. Webinar excerpt –?Trends for 2025 & Beyond: #Housing
5. Podcast Recommendation: How the Supermarket Helped America Win the Cold War

The Bond Market’s Hidden Influence

While the stock market often commands attention with its volatile highs and lows, the bond market quietly wields unparalleled influence over the global economy. Picture it as the grown-up at the party—less glamorous, but far more consequential. Recent weeks have underscored this reality in dramatic fashion. Despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb borrowing costs, mortgage rates remain lofty, stubbornly tethered to the bond market’s pulse rather than the Fed’s ambition to lower rates.

The bond market has essentially thumbed its nose at the Fed’s playbook, driven instead by concerns about spiraling government deficits and the risks they pose to U.S. Treasury buyers. It’s a stark reminder that while policymakers can set targets, the bond market dictates the real terms of borrowing and economic activity.

It’s the bond market that may dictate the results of the Trump presidency. Higher deficits likely mean upward pressure on yields, regardless of what the Fed does. The bond market, ever the realist, will be closely watching whether Trump’s pro-growth policies lead to genuine economic expansion or merely a ballooning of the national debt.

In Elon We Trust?

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has all the makings of a Netflix drama.

The press has been single-mindedly focused on outrageous claims that Musk and others could slash deficit spending by $2 trillion.

Should we be so quick to discount anything Elon says? Critics point out his “conflict of interest,” noting the stratospheric rise in Musk’s net worth since the appointment. But let’s not forget: these are the same bureaucrats who’ve been running the current system—one infamous for its inefficiencies and scandals. Say what you will about Musk, but betting against him has historically been a losing proposition. If he achieved a $500 billion savings through efficiency gains, that would be extraordinary.

The opportunity here lies in tech-powered reform. Imagine the same AI and machine learning that’s powering self-driving cars deployed to untangle government inefficiency. If Musk succeeds, the DOGE could mark the beginning of an era where AI disrupts governance in the same way it’s disrupted nearly every other industry.

Skepticism is healthy, but innovation could be the winner.

The End of China’s Rise

If you want to understand the fundamentals of China’s recent decline, watch this recording of Tufts professor Michael Beckley.

Beckley paints a vivid picture of China’s economic boom, and the possibility that it’s primed for a downfall. Beneath the shiny exterior lies a growth model on life support—propped up by ballooning debt and a population aging like milk left out in the sun.

Perhaps Beckley’s most interesting insight is about demographics. 50 years ago, China provided incentives for families to grow, resulting in a startling 80% population growth in only 30 years. The Communist Party had to reverse course and implement its one-child policy. This has created massive imbalances in the population premium–the delta between the aging and the people paying for them. Like other things, what was once an advantage for China has turned into a disadvantage. Another example is its burgeoning infrastructure, which is now overbuilt.

Beckley warns that China’s domestic troubles might push it to misbehave and flex its muscles globally—with more saber-rattling in the South China Sea and pricklier relationships with neighbors. As the U.S. turns up the pressure on tariffs, expect more military sparring in areas closest to their axis of control.

Webinar excerpt –?Trends for 2025 & Beyond: Housing

Podcast Recommendation: How the Supermarket Helped America Win the Cold War

Last week, we heard a former U.S. ambassador describe Russia’s escalating conflict with the U.S. Today, we revisit a 2019 episode about an overlooked front in the Cold War — a “farms race” that, decades later, still influences what Americans eat.

Listen here

The Strategy Experts

Marc Emmer?is President and Chief Strategist & Facilitator at Optimize Inc. He is an author, speaker and consultant recognized as a thought leader throughout North America as an expert in strategic planning.

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