Strategy Is Just a Guess

I have been helping companies build winning strategies for more than three decades. Crafting a strategy can be intimidating. There are many moving parts and a lot at stake. After all, you are plotting the future of your organization. You want to get it right .

Here are ten things to keep in mind as you work to set your strategy:

1. Strategy Is Just a Guess:

Even the largest companies with massive strategy departments are still just guessing. It may be a thoughtful, well-researched guess, but it’s still an attempt to predict the future. No one can do that.

2. You Don’t Have to Be No. 1:

Being No. 2 or 3 in your industry and highly profitable is an excellent position . Many companies set a goal of being “the best in the world,” but few have the resources, talent, products, or services to achieve that. Setting such a goal, if unrealistic, can demotivate people.

3. It Doesn’t Have to Be New and Exciting:

If last year’s strategy—and the one from the year before—is still working, don’t change it. I work with one client that has kept essentially the same strategy for the last seven years, and they are highly successful and profitable. They make minor tweaks yearly, but about 85% of the strategy remains unchanged. Don’t fix what isn’t broken.

4. You Don’t Have to Be Better at Everything:

Parity can be powerful. If you match your competitors across a wide array of elements, those fall off the table as decision-making criteria. Then, focus on a handful of areas that differentiate you and add value to your customers. The same in most, better in a few.

5. It’s the Allocation of Scarce Resources:

Even Google and Amazon don’t have unlimited resources. At its core, strategy is the allocation of scarce resources. A clear strategy helps you know where to invest time, money, and people, speeding decision-making and keeping the organization aligned on what matters most.

6. No:

Strategy is about choosing what you won’t do. Where won’t you allocate time, money, or people? What projects won’t you pursue? Which areas will you avoid competing in? You must focus on your core competencies and say no to anything that doesn’t align.

7. Focus On the Fundamentals:

Some companies believe their strategy must be esoteric, brilliant, or cutting-edge. The best strategies focus on the fundamentals of building a world-class company: a people-first culture, customer centricity, product and service excellence, organizational efficiency, and strong financial controls. It may not sound flashy, but it works.

8. Complexity Kills:

Many companies today use one-page strategic plans. I’ve created strategies for multibillion-dollar companies that were fewer than seven pages. There may be addendums and spreadsheets, but the core strategy document is simple, straightforward, and easy to understand. Communicate it consistently—it’s impossible to talk too much about your vision, mission, values, purpose, and strategy.

9. Only Change Your Strategy When the Market Requires It:

Some people love to pivot, chasing every new idea. At the beginning of the year, they focus on A, then midyear switch to Z, and in the third quarter, it’s B. This kind of strategy whiplash wastes time, energy, and money. Create a solid strategy and stick with it unless your customers or the market warrants change.

10. Execution Is Everything:

A great strategy poorly executed is useless. Make your strategy clear. Set specific KPIs. Monitor it weekly, monthly, quarterly, midyear, and year-end. Yes, that often. Without this level of focus and follow-up, you won’t build a culture of accountability that delivers results.

With these fundamentals in mind, you can create a strategy that drives real results and guides your organization forward.

I wish you great success in 2025 and beyond.

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