Strategising for a Dispute Free Kashmir

Last week’s news papers carried the news about the Pakistani Government beginning the process of incorporating Gilgit-Baltistan as it’s 6th province through the new Gilgit Baltistan Order 2018 .

“…..Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi’s speech to the Joint Session of the Gilgit-Baltistan Council and Legislative Assembly on Sunday. The executive order from Prime Minister Abbasi intends to begin legislative, judicial and administrative measures to integrate Gilgit-Baltistan with the rest of the federal structure of Pakistan. Mr Abbasi’s announcement has sparked several protests in the region. 

As per the previous arrangement, Pakistan’s National Assembly received representation from five provinces — Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, Federally Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This excluded the Gilgit-Baltistan region which remained on the Pakistani side following the war of 1947 and was governed directly from Islamabad. Following the declaration by Mr. Abbasi, the status of Gilgit-Baltistan is expected to change

The idea of granting provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan gained momentum since work on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passing through the region, demanded greater coordination between the local and central-level leaders. 

India, which opposes the CPEC for reasons related to sovereignty, on Sunday reiterated its territorial claims over Gilgit-Baltistan and said Mr. Abbasi’s executive order to alter the status of the region will be against the position of the Indian Parliament which in 1994 passed a resolution in support of India’s claims over the undivided Jammu and Kashmir.”

sourced from : https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-lodges-protest-with-pakistan-deputy-high-commissioner-over-gilgit-baltistan/article24006931.ece

With this, Pakistan again, has unilaterally taken the step of changing the status quo of the ‘disputed area of J&K.’ And of course, the issue of ‘Azad Kashmir’ is now put under the carpet. With Gilgit-Baltistan firmly saddled inside the ‘Islamic Republic of Pakistan,’ there is no chance of there ever being an ‘Azad Kashmir’.

As mentioned, this change has come because of China’s pressure on Pakistan to give Gilgit Baltistan some legal status. Else, the whole of CPEC investment in Gilgit Baltistan could be wasted by future developments.

Indian Media and Indian Government , are looking at CPEC with alarm and dismay and cynicism.  But I prefer to look at it differently. And in true Indian democratic tradition, I welcome a thorough discussion and debate on this rather than following a pessimistic narrative.

The CPEC corridor from Gilgit to Gwadar opens up exciting avenues for India.  So let’s look at it anew:

1.    Gilgit-Baltistan , CPEC and India’s claim:

There is no doubt that CPEC is being built right on the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir territory, namely Gilgit Baltistan,  on which India claims ownership due to the Jammu and Kashmir's 'Instrument of Accession'. China tacitly acknowledges it too. That is why there was pressure on the Pakistan Government to pass a law to declare Gilgit Baltistan as a Pakistani Province.   

India should use this move by Pakistan  as an opportunity. We should now  declare the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir’s ‘Instrument of Accession’ as an infructuous document for two reasons:

a) The ‘Instrument of Accession’ promised the complete territory of J&K to India, but the territory was never delivered to India. Thus there is a breach of terms by the Maharaja of Kashmir and his successors themselves (which includes the State Government of Kashmir, as of now).

b)   Pakistan’s actions of incorporating Gilgit Baltistan as it’s province, have rendered infructuous any future settlement. Pakistan has also brought a third party (China) into  the J&K territory at both Aksai Chin and now in Gilgit-Baltistan. India is no mood to go to war for territories that are occupied by Pakistan or China. Time and actions have changed the status quo of population and demographics in  Pakistani and Chinese occupied areas of Jammu and Kashmir. Therefore, there can never be a true plebiscite of actual and original Jammu and Kashmiri citizens anymore.

 India would therefore be right in declaring  the ‘Accession Instrument’ as infructuous and null and void.  India's actions will hold good for very strong  legal reasons.

With this declaration, the U.N resolution on Plebiscite will also automatically fall.

Next, with India  abolishing  the Accession Terms, we should  declare Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmiri territory as ‘Indian territory’.  This will automatically deplete Art 370 of the Constitution, which  otherwise, is a difficult task because of the provision that the State Government of J&K has to agree to Art 370’s abolition. In any case, Art 370 was always mentioned as a temporary provision, so bringing in a new status to the J&K territory that we hold, can be a natural progression.  Secondly, it will allow us a legal exit from the messy Kashmiri accession which was immediately followed by a Tribal invasion, then a UN reference, and then the constant rhetoric of Pakistan that it is a ‘leftover dispute of partition’ .

Hopefully, such an action will have approval from the Chinese as it will give them clear title to run amok in Gilgit Baltistan. The said areas have more or less been given up by India in any case.   

Thereafter, we can immediately resettle Kashmir with  mainstream Indians, and implement rapid reforms. We should also allow  separatist Kashmiris an exit plan to leave India so that we have no vestiges of misplaced loyalties.  We should develop our territory of J&K as a Union Territory till we are able to bring complete law and order in the area and then give it a new State-hood under our Constitution.

2.    The issue of Chinese investment and presence from Gilgit to Gwadar:    

    If the Chinese were not to come in, please consider how we would control the continuous swelling of Jihadi ranks in Pakistan. The areas  where CPEC is being developed,  are  lawless, teeming with terrorists, and fertile grounds for Pakistani youth to be led into Jehad. Chinese investment should hopefully bring employment to Pakistani youths, which will mean lesser footfall into Jihadi camps. That is good news for India. Secondly, Chinese can be trusted to control the rampant medieval Islamism being promoted in Pakistan. The Chinese seem to be doing a good job of taming their Uighyur and Xinjiang Islamists.  As recent development experts have been pointing out, it will be interesting to watch the new sociological development  of the ‘Han’ interacting with the’ Wahhabi’. The next decade should be very interesting for India. At any given time, we should root for Han influence to overtake the Wahhabi influence in Pakistan. In either case, if the Wahhabi wins, then China will dump Pakistan and become our friend. And if the Han wins, then we will just have the Hans, and not the Wahhabis, to deal with, in the future.  If there is a tussle between the  Wahhabi philosophy of Pakistani terrorists  and the Atheist/ Buddhist philosophy of the Hans, it is an easy choice to make for India. It should be easier to develop friendship with Han influenced Pakistanis in the future rather than Wahhabi influenced Pakistanis.  The whole of 2020’s decade suddenly looks very interesting.

Ideally, Pakistan should have been our partner. Unfortunately it is not. It is therefore best that this Pakistani romance with China is cheered. Pakistan needs to be controlled, and if it shall be done so via China, let it be so. India should not worry about it. India should look forward to lessening of extremism and pursuit of  materialism rather than Islamism in Pakistan  ( as promoted by the Chinese) .

3.    About China encircling India: India should focus on getting rid of the terrorism tap from Pakistan as of now. One problem at a time. Cheer the CPEC, keep away from it, and watch the unfolding Tamasha. In the meantime, we should strengthen our fort, build our ties, raise ourselves out of poverty, get our UNSC seat, and ensure that our Economy is unbeatable. Chinese encirclement cannot take away our oceans, our intelligence, our skills, our demography, our democracy or our civilisation.                                                     

China is in ‘investment mode’. They are putting their money into Pakistan. How this will unfold in the future is for time to show. Maybe the Chinese will reap benefits from these investments. Or maybe the Pakistanis will rebel and throw out the Chinese. In either case, it works well for India. If China loses money in Pakistan, their ‘all weather friendship’ with Pakistan will take a beating. If China makes money from Pakistan, then it is bound to create resentment amongst Pakistanis, and they will have an anti-China sentiment. This will raise the possibility of Pakistanis rebelling against China,  and as the Pakistanis are prone to outside support, they will turn to a ‘third power’  to bail them out. We should focus on becoming this ‘Third Power’.

 So let’s focus on our growth, and let’s remove the thorns of our path one by one.  CPEC is good. Let’s applaud it.  And watch the unfolding saga from the sidelines.