Strategies and their consequences in fighting the Wuhan Coronavirus - but also an unexpected opportunity

Throughout the world, there are significant differences in dealing with the Coronavirus. In China and other countries, they chose for the lockdown, in many cases on the (very) late side. Now that the source of the infection is no longer known in many countries, a controlled approach whereby the measures are finetuned with the objective to stay within the medical capacity, in particular, the intensive care is the only option left. Finally, a plan is described to send the elderly with weaker health (most volatile) for a few months to Thailand. 

China

As more than 5 million people had already left Wuhan for the annual Chinese New Year vacation, the virus could spread over China. It should be noted that the extreme lockdown measures then taken were effective, but difficult to implement in countries where the people are used to a high degree of freedom. China’s take-home message is that when things threaten to run out of control, a lockdown is effective, as illustrated by this graph – the number of active cases is so low that the medical system can cope with this.

Italy

Compared to China, where the peak was reached less than 1 month after the virus started to explode, Italy is now at two weeks. Since the viral breakout, drastic measures were also taken in Italy. Within the last 2 weeks, the number of infections was roughly as high as in China in the same period. During the last 4 days, the number of infections more than doubled, which indicates that the peak is likely weeks into the future.

The point that the capacity of intensive care beds is insufficient has been reached about a week ago. This is dramatic, as the medical staff is faced with the horrific choice of who may live and who will die. The common criterion is that patients with higher recovery expectations get priority. Logical, but terrible.

Italian specialists stressed to other countries to take measures without further delay. Some, not all, listen…

The Netherlands

I chose the Netherlands as an example of a group of countries with (very) reserved precautions, as I am a Dutch national and follow this country closely. Schools, cafés and restaurants have been open until 2 days ago (15 March). A week ago, the only measures were no handshaking and stay home with symptoms, even though it was clear that the development of infections was almost exactly following the progress in Italy 2 weeks ago. Yesterday, the prime minister told the Dutch to prepare that more than half of the population would become infected in a “controlled” way. He argued that this way, herd (group) immunity will gradually control the epidemy. The UK also seems to follow this approach; I expect they will both soon be whistled back as, while the herd immunity principle is correct, it would cost at least 40,000 deaths.

To add insult to injury, little action has been taken to seriously expand intensive-care beds and there is a huge shortage of protective materials. I informed a minister and several politicians where they could order e.g. high-volume mouth masks; no answer… Many doctors cannot see patients because of this! The ruling government dismisses almost all motions in the second chamber (“lower house”) by the opposition to take stronger measures. This included school and café/restaurant closure, which is now finally invoked last Sunday (March 15). I believe the majority, who thinks that strong pressure by the public invoked this. Another dismissed motion was border control and medical checks, now common in many parts of Europe. It was just announced that the Schengen area is locked down, which will at least solve part of the problem. But the government refuses to maximize the measures and still does not check passengers at the airport.

Thailand

I chose Thailand as an example of the countries (such as Singapore, Hong Kong) with (very) strong precautions, as I live there. Thailand is almost the opposite of the Netherlands in all aspects. I credit the strong policies and perfect implementation to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha, a former army general. This is the same general who restored order and safety in Thailand a few years ago. Many condemned this martial art regime at the time, but I can testify that daily life was perfectly normal. In those days he fought the corruption that had wildly grown under the previous governments; he improved the situation greatly. 

At the borders, persons from the red zones (such as Italy, China) are only allowed with a very recent health certificate. Persons from the “risky” countries such as the Netherlands are required to report their temperature and conditions twice a day during 14 days of self-quarantine. If they don’t comply there is a 3,000 Euro fine or even prison. Everybody else gets a temperature and symptoms test. In case of doubts they are sent to a hospital. Of course, these measures have a dramatic impact on the number of tourists. The Thai government clearly prioritizes health over economics –that gives me a confident, safe feeling...

In every city and village, face masks (at a cost of 7 Eurocents) are available, sufficient for one per person per day. Disinfection fluid is not only widely available but also price-controlled. In shops, banks and other places the public is encouraged to use the dispensers at the entrance and inside. Disinfecting is mandatory.

Another big difference is the attitude of the population: they take this much more seriously than in Europe. As of today, all sources of infected persons are known exactly. The spread over the country is documented online: https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en# In my honest view, Thailand is one of the truly safe havens.

This explains why I considered Thailand a perfect destination for the elderly to ”escape” to (see below).

UPDATE 21 March 2020 THAILAND IN LOCKDOWN

As described above, until this week, Thailand had full control over all infection cases. Regretfully, due to infections at a large boxing game and of a movie star, the virus now started to spread. To get back control, the country rightfully took the only measure that helps to get back control: a 100% lockdown. The duration is not confirmed - my best guess is 3-4 weeks. Consequently, we will postpone the CORONA EXODUS program Consider following me, so you will get e-mailed updates.

The next months

Hopefully, more countries will now (better late than never) implement lockdown and increase the intensive care capacity and arrange enough medical supplies fast. We do not know yet whether the warmer Spring weather will help. It did not help with #MERS but had a positive effect on #SARS and the regular flue.

Spreading the development of the disease over a longer time and being able to control the progress has 2 important benefits: The medical capacity is sufficient (less deaths) and the chance that treatments to reduce the chance to infection is ready increases. Many countries are working round-the-clock on this.

Lessons learned from Spanish Flue (1918) & Coronavirus in Asia

A striking similarity is the consequences of fast and late response to the Spanish Flue in Philadelphia (waited 2 weeks) and St Louis (2 days). Source and full report (including survey among 40 million people how they judge their governments): https://www.freelancer.com/articles/global-response-to-coronavirus

Data scientists at the Eindhoven Technical University in the Netherlands used their skills to model the data and predict the maximum number of cases. Source/full report: https://www.tue.nl/en/news/news-overview/11-03-2020-eindhoven-data-scientists-take-on-corona-data-to-predict-growth-of-new-infections/

The graph below, from the WHO, seems to confirm the maximum of ~68,000 infections in Italy predicted by the Dutch (graph above), considering the total lockdown in Italy and makes it likely that the outbreak will flatten similar to China. However, In Italy the maximum hospital capacity was reached earlier this week; therefore, an unknown number of sick people (part of them died at home) is not included in the statistic. The sad conclusion is that the worst is yet to come; the scale is logarithmic.

Corona Exodus

Countries with a strong agenda to fight the Coronavirus suffer most economically. Thailand and other countries, which took the Coronavirus seriously and are still in phase 2, require persons from the growing “risky” list to undergo 14 days (checked) self-quarantine and reporting. People who wish to go 2 or 3 weeks on vacation will not go to such destinations. In Thailand, the effect is very visible and I feel sorry for the hoteliers and other tourism industry workers, who are suffering badly. However, sorry does not really help…

Corona Exodus is a large-scale, non-profit plan to offer older people from the “risky” countries, who are fit to travel and want to go, an opportunity to escape to “safe haven” Thailand for several months; affordably.

I strongly believe this is a win-win: bringing older people in safety during the time that the crisis in their country is most severe and provide hotels with guests they need so badly to survive. This plan is, however, not for everybody. Many elderlies would feel insecure to go away from their familiar environment or are not fit to travel. But for those who wish to spend a few months at a safe, pleasant beach -and are fit to travel and have no Coronavirus-like symptoms this will be a great, affordable option.

I am awaiting the Thai government’s approval – without which we will not implement this on a large scale. However, we are preparing a small-scale plan (max. 48 rooms), which has the main objective to gather practical experience, which will be useful when the program scales up after government approval.

The cost of a longer stay is quite affordable at a full board price per person per day will start (for simple hotels, but with air conditioning and daily cleaning) at 22 Euro, dual occupancy and 29 Euro for singles. This is so low because this is a non-profit plan. This does not include medical services, but this is cheap here.

Breakfast will be eggs, bread/toast, jam and cheese (expensive in Thailand – so we ask participants to buy for us at home). Lunch and dinner will be warm, vegetarian, fish or meat with rice, sometimes spaghetti and potatoes. Water is free; other drinks are own account. We plan to have one person to coach 16 rooms.

If you wish to participate (or for family) during the small-scale plan (starting early April), please send an email to [email protected] with age(s), gender(s) a short description of condition and diet/allergy requirements (if any) and at double occupation single or double beds. Ultimately, Corona Exodus will be a foundation – this will not be the case during the small-scale plan. Payment is mostly just before arrival.

As in many countries, there are currently also calls here to close the border of Thailand. I do not see that happening yet because, first of all, the situation is well under control here. Jeremy Hunt, the former Secretary of State in the UK, referred to Thailand as one of the examples of how to fight the Coronavirus. Besides, the country cannot afford a lockdown financially – the tourism industry is vitally important.

When the plan is received well by the Thai government, I will prepare a formal large scale operations plan.

I welcome your feedback in the comments area here or at the article at LinkedIn: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/strategies-consequences-fighting-wuhan-coronavirus-also-james-post/ When you wish to contact me personally, please do so via email ([email protected]) or a LinkedIn private message. My LinkedIn account is https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/james-post/ 

About me

In 2004, I lived in Grenada, when Hurricane Ivan devastated this Caribbean island. When it became apparent that no help was available in our area, I used our large supplies to feed ~ 500 families in our area. Later I formed Recovery Grenada Council, which coordinated the activities of most of the other aid groups. As I did in Grenada, I will form a Board of Advisors to guide us through the complicated logistics and organization, once this plan proves to be feasible. This background makes me suitable for such a project and I feel that I should make my skills available to help master this crisis.

How the Coronavirus affected my work

As a lithium battery expert, I perform consultancy and training to -primarily- the e-bike and their suppliers/associated industries. My consultancy usually is a second opinion on current e-bike batteries and (plans, specifications for) new battery designs, both aimed at the short and long term. My courses vary from service/dealer level to R & D and strategy/management. 

Until recently, my consultancy and courses were usually performed at -or close to- the customer’s location. The Wuhan Coronavirus changed this drastically: I am now performing consultancy on a distance, which happens to work quite satisfactory (if the customers would not cancel or postpone projects) and I am rewriting my training courses to online versions. For any information on my consultancy and new e-courses, kindly contact me at [email protected]