A Strategic Review And Forecast For The Next Ten Years
The YEAR 2020 is a turning point for you as an investor, to recognize and capture the right opportunity, when you find one. It takes an expert eye to catch, to keep and to grow.
Eight years ago we predicted that 2012 will be a turning point in history, and so it was for the Middle East. This year it is for China.
"Economic planning and management” is probably the most important among all sciences in the human life. This is because it affects and shapes all aspects of the human life activities. It is about “Money”, “Wealth”, and “Power”. Money is the soul of nations and civilizations and it makes the difference between “good living” and “barely alive”.
Most young people, EU and North America, feel the pressures of the present economic system and how unjust it is for them. Especially when they see their parent and grandparents had a better pay and a better quality of life than they are having in the 21st century.
In other parts of the globe, people could see that the rich is getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. This is a major concern for WEF and the academia economic circles. However, the “Money Game” is not designed by the academia and textbooks anymore.
People, including major economy scholars, became hostages in the bus that was hiked. The world economy bus is driven now by the people who intermarried politics and wealth and now try to destabilize democracies and freedoms to gain ultimate control.
The academia who sold their expertise in mathematical modelling and digital currency creation, became tools for the market-makers. They live as slaves in a world they helped to create. Now it their moral and ethical task to fix.
In the unfair world of today, bankers make more money than some the capital investors. The brokers gain more than the sellers and buyers. And the employees are turning into corporate slaves literally working dawn to dusk hoping for make a dignified life on a minimum wage pay. No way.
The future of young generations was sacrificed to pay for warlords and oil barons, and corrupt political system that breeds incompetent nation leaders in many countries.
The world was never in such a threat of war and disaster since World War One in 1914. The economic and political ambience is charged with falsified information and fued in a vicious mind-control games.
There are leaders who now race with a blind ambition for world wealth, markets, and resources. As they raise the stake of risk, in their deadly game, they are destined to lose all. In such process, they are endangering the world peace and destroying the future of the entourage around them.
This puts so much pressure on the global economies. At danger are the economic institutions and nations, especially the poorer ones and those who are not readily equipped and prepared.
The recent spread of the Corona virus in China revealed to all world governments how fragile the entire system is. China is the fastest growing economy on earth, with a tremendous economic production and consumption powers and a huge population. All coming a to dead stop with cities isolated, travel ban for its nationals. In a matter of few days, it became the place where all try to flee, and no one wants to visit.
A similar case would be the loss of electrical power. Power can be lost because of sun flaring, Plutonium clouding in space, or asteroids damaging system-control satellites. In such case we will have no power and no Internet. The present digital and electrically-powered civilization we are least prepared to make fire or get water out of wells in most mega cities.
In such scenario, more than 15% of the world most educated and skilled people will suffer. Relocation and resettlement, will waste a generation of economic productivity and prosperity in the best economic forecasting simulation.
I am not in the business of spreading fear, and doubt. However, the overall world indications point towards more escalation and tension politically and economically.
When we add to that the climate crisis and the boiling of world oceans, in dramatic progression since the 1980 until today, we realize beyond doubt that the human-race is endangered. Butter-fly species has all disappeared by 50% in the last 50 years. This is one example of the life system change. Humans may be next.
In the years that followed the second World War, the US, the UK and Russian leadership brought to us the United Nations to secure world peace and justice. Unfortunately, such moral system is no longer in power. The ethical compass that guided those great leaders who fought for peace is now lost. They were succeeded by people who use the US dollar as a weapon for war than a tool for human or economic development.
The world ideas and ideologies have peaked 1500 years ago. There are no more ethical and value systems to invent or present. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) is no solution nor an alternative.
Apart from technology most human ideas are now replicas and repeats in a modern form of thought. Matter cannot control thought. Thought and true spirituality shall always prevail over matter.
Hollywood works is an example of reproduction, repetition, and idea cloning. Imagination is heading now towards virtual worlds and unreal heroism that is entirely detached from reality and the day-to-day issues of the real people.
Now, having provided the preceding overall view of the contemporary world, let us talk investment.
For that part I shall reduce my forecasting in bullet point, as the following:
- The sustainable and effective economy shall be the one that focus on people’s life needs.
2. To stabilize the world economic structure, we need to rebuild it to be "Fail-Safe" and less risky.
3. The US dollar can no longer dominate the trade and valuation of commodities for a longer time. It is being circumvented and replaced gradually by other means of asset valuation and trade exchange.
4. Digital currencies are here to stay until the electric power go down.
5. Gold shall not lose its luster nor value as a safe resort in any currency or country risk.
6. The United Nations is being weakened by the US pressure. In the end the two systems will no longer become effective in managing the global affairs.
7. Climate risk is more dangerous to the world economy than a nuclear or biological war.
8. EU lost its soul after BREXIT. The EU will not speak German or French in the next era. English language shall dominate as the de facto tool for communication in the EU council amongst the translations. The UK shall suffer for a while before the world transformation in the new age becomes in favour of the BREXIT choice, in years to come.
9. The World Bank and IMF could create a sustainable world economy in the past seventy years. There is no reason to believe that they can play such a role now. They often had been used and abused as tools and never could lead. The Vatican, Wall Street, and The City of London, combined, have more influence in shaping the world economy to date. Cities like Singapore and Dubai prospered because they did not follow World Bank advice like distressed nations in Africa and South America.
10. A new economic system is rising in the world by the pressure of the status-quo where three geo-economic blocks are forming. One is Asia-Australia. The second is EU, Mid-East, and Africa. The third is The America’s. Such system will mark the end of trade globalization as it was packaged and sold to the world in the past. “Globalization” in general, failed to deliver the promises it made for the middle classes in the West.
There is nothing sentimental about money. It is a tool for effort, and commodity and asset valuation. It is a a tool for trade facilitation on agreed basis. Through such tool societies prospered, grew and become nations, and nations traded together. Such tool must not be used as a weapon to undermine world peace and economic prosperity, trade and security.
As a businessperson, I had not seen a goal that could not be accomplished through peace and business. If the other party is not determined to conduct an open aggression offensive, then reason must rule. In wars we risk our fortunes as people and our safety as humans.
I read through the history references, and I looked back in fifty years of my life. I had seen all the leaders who started unlawful wars perish and get defeated. Hitler, was an example of a failed leader. His nationalist and racial-centered illusions led him to believe that he is a superior person. Hitler and his anti-human beliefs never lived after him. His failure was rapid and horrifying.
World leaders who strive for peace, and to avoid wars, are always the most human and most thoughtful.