The strategic importance of the South Caucasus in current global affairs.

President Putin's two-day visit to Azerbaijan on August 18 and 19 comes at a time of heightened regional tensions and strategic maneuvering in the South Caucasus. This visit occurs against the backdrop of ongoing military operations in Ukraine, including fighting in Russia's Kursk region.

The visit follows a period of strained relations between Russia and Armenia, a traditional ally. Armenia's dissatisfaction with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization's (CSTO) lack of support during the Second Karabakh War, coupled with Yerevan's growing ties with Western countries, has created friction with Moscow.

Just prior to Putin's visit, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu made a notable trip to Azerbaijan via Iran. This route has sparked speculation about Russia's concerns regarding potential escalation between Iran and Israel, particularly in light of the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Experts suggest that Russia may be wary of possible covert support from Azerbaijan to Israel in the event of an Iran-Israel conflict. Shoigu's visit to both Tehran and Baku could be seen as an attempt to address these concerns and maintain stability in the region.

Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine remains tense. Russian forces continue to shell border regions, with the Sumy region reporting 89 incidents of shelling in a single day. Air raid alerts have been triggered in several Ukrainian regions due to the threat of missile attacks and drone deployments.

The broader geopolitical context includes ongoing Israeli military operations in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon, as well as U.S. diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation in the Middle East.

Putin's visit to Azerbaijan thus takes place amidst a complex web of regional conflicts and diplomatic maneuvering, highlighting the strategic importance of the South Caucasus in current global affairs.

Putin's visit to Azerbaijan also comes at a time of shifting alliances and energy politics in the region. Azerbaijan, with its significant oil and gas reserves, has become an increasingly important player in Europe's energy diversification efforts, especially as the continent seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian energy sources.

The timing of Putin's visit may also be seen as an attempt to reinforce Russia's influence in the South Caucasus, a region where it has historically held sway but has faced increasing competition from other powers, including Turkey and the West. Azerbaijan's strategic location between Russia, Iran, and Turkey makes it a key player in regional geopolitics.

Furthermore, the visit occurs against the backdrop of ongoing negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia, as a mediator in this conflict, may be seeking to bolster its position and ensure its continued relevance in the peace process.

On the economic front, Russia and Azerbaijan have been exploring ways to deepen their economic ties, particularly in the face of Western sanctions against Russia. This visit could potentially result in new agreements on trade, investment, and economic cooperation.

It's also worth noting that Putin's international travels have been limited since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for him in March 2023. Azerbaijan, not being a signatory to the Rome Statute of the ICC, provides a safe destination for the Russian leader.

As the visit unfolds, observers will be keenly watching for any statements or agreements that might shed light on Russia's strategic objectives in the region, as well as any potential shifts in the complex web of alliances and rivalries that characterize the South Caucasus.

Alex Klisevits

CEO / Tactical Team Leader at Iron Navy