Strategic Implications of International Support for Taiwan

At a moment where international relationships keep Taiwan in focus, and the Strait at peace (if not tension-free), let's take a very brief look at the strategic implications of international support for Taiwan. There can hardly be any doubt that the geopolitical chessboard is more complex than ever, with Taiwan sitting at one of its most critical squares. The island's unique position has the attention of major and middle power friends, notably the U.S., EU, Japan, and Australia. Their support for Taiwan carries profound strategic implications. The "defection" of tiny Pacific island nations does not figure in this; that is just China's niggle. China knows they are not players no matter how many forward bases they might provide. These islands also know their future is not with China; they would act pragmatically with their older friends if there were conflagration.

This larger power support, while multifaceted, influences China's strategies and reshapes regional dynamics in significant ways. Ultimately, like so many things about cross-Strait tension, much boils down to China's strategic calculus which, in a now-autocratic China, itself boils down to keeping the domestic situation below any kind of boiling point. As I have said elsewhere, Xi's strategic challenge comes down to weighing geopolitics against the economy, and therefore popular contentment. Worry about the economy trumps the current popular temperature on the "reunification" question for the average Chinese.

Tending to one's own plot yields a harvest that sustains the soul, whereas encroaching on another's garden risks a drought in both.

War would largely ravage China's economy. Xi knows it. And that is too high a price to pay for current the Chinese no matter how much Xi might enjoy the distraction. Until it isn't, of course.

The U.S.: A Shield and a Sword

The United States has long stood as Taiwan's most powerful ally, providing substantial military aid and political support. This partnership emboldens Taiwan, enhancing its defence capabilities and deterrence posture against potential aggression. For China, this means any strategy involving Taiwan must account for the probable involvement of American forces, perhaps even some from others, thus complicating any military calculus. China has to figure in any scenario that one scenario for Taiwan's allies - assuming fairly realistically that China could not take Taiwan in a few days - would be to bring about a frozen conflict and stalemate that costs China so dearly they should think more than twice.

The U.S.'s commitment to Taiwan is not just limited to the idea that Taiwan must be supported because it also serves as a litmus test for America's resolve in the Asia-Pacific, signaling to other allies its reliability as a security partner. Leaving such a long-term ally (and investment) out to dry would be seriously damaging to the US' interest and their sense of exceptionalism.

The European Union: Values and Diplomacy

The EU's involvement, though less direct than the U.S., is no less significant. European support for Taiwan is often framed within the context of shared democratic values and human rights, offering Taiwan a moral and diplomatic bolstering. European reliance on the Taiwanese semiconductor industry - tech industrial complex - alone acts as a crucial tether. This support complicates China's narrative and diplomatic efforts, as it must navigate not just a regional dispute but a global discourse on democracy and authoritarianism. The EU's stance also serves as a barometer for European commitment to the rule-based international order, subtly influencing China's engagement with Europe at large. I don't see the EU extending much on-the-ground military support to Taiwan, except possible military aid packages a la Ukraine. That might not, however, be the same general stance of NATO - another conversation.

Japan: Proximity and Pragmatism

Japan's support for Taiwan is informed by geographical proximity and historical ties. There can be no doubt Japan fears China. But Japan also understands China better than most. The geographical proximity tends to drive that focus and understanding. Recognising the strategic implications of Taiwan's security for its own, Japan's involvement underscores the interconnectedness of East Asian security. For China, this regional solidarity presents a layered challenge, not just in military terms but also in diplomatic isolation within its immediate sphere of influence. Japan's stance is a reminder of the potential for a coordinated regional response, complicating any aggressive strategies China might consider. Even if Japan decided to not actively engage China unless attacked themselves, they would stand to defend their own territorial integrity to the hilt, including the long chain of islands extending to Taiwan's waters. Japan's future role would be to strongly stand their ground and offer military aid to Taiwan adding to the likelihood of a possible frozen conflict.

Australia: A Southern Ally

Australia's support, though geographically distant, and only a middle power, is symbolically significant. It represents the broader concern of the Indo-Pacific region regarding freedom of navigation and the principle of sovereignty. Australia's involvement signifies the issue's transcending regional boundaries, positioning Taiwan's security as a matter of global maritime strategy and international law. Even if not for Taiwan itself, Australia could never afford to abandon Taiwan because to do so means not being by the side of the US, with implications for Australia's military: so strongly dependent on the umbilicus with the US. For China, this broadens the scope of the Taiwan issue from a cross-strait dispute to a global concern, impacting its strategies on multiple fronts.

The Strategic Calculus for China

The international support for Taiwan significantly influences China's strategic calculus. It must weigh the risks of direct confrontation against a backdrop of potential global isolation, ravaging the economy in the face of popular economic challenges, and the possibility of a multi-front challenge. Every strategic friend for Taiwan brings the "economy or war?" dilemma into more specific relief for China. Whatever the capability of those powers and allies to bring force to bear directly against China, every one of them raises the price of war, serving as a deterrent, and complicates any aggressive moves China might consider. Moreover, it highlights the costs of undermining the status quo, not just in military terms but also in diplomatic capital and global standing. Ultimately, the strategic priority for China is rather simple; "it's the economy, stupid".