Stratbase Brief: "Philippine Foreign and Security Policy: Challenges and Prospects for 2022"

In our continuing campaign to look at issues beyond the news cycle, Stratbase produces a bi-monthly brief on one specific issue or topic. The aim is to provide context in which to understand a given issue and to draw out its significance to the political, economic, and business landscapes.?

Philippine Foreign and Security Policy: Challenges and Prospects for 2022

The first quarter of 2022 is crucial for the international community as threats brought by new variants of COVID-19 may continue to impact public health and the global economy. States have experienced different recovery levels, with some slowly reopening their borders and loosening restrictions, while others are still under public health emergencies. While economic recovery continues to be a priority, various global security developments have continued to shape relations among states, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. For instance, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) recently organized an important meeting in Australia to deepen cooperation and discuss regional challenges, including China's growing economic and military expansion, climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Like-minded states such as Japan and Australia have also signed defense treaties while the United States continues its regional initiatives to advance a rules-based international order. The emergence of various security threats – traditional, non-traditional, and evolving – which are all transnational in nature has also made multilateral cooperation in the region more imperative. More states are now inclined to realign their foreign and security policies toward the Indo-Pacific.??

In the context of the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte continues to navigate the regional architecture and manage the country's diplomatic relations. However, while his administration's independent foreign policy seeks to uphold national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national interest, President Duterte's policy direction resulted to more challenges than opportunities. Brushing aside the territorial issues in the West Philippine Sea in exchange for economic benefits, President Duterte pivoted away from the country's previous policy towards China. Still, this direction did not produce the much-needed and promised loans and direct investments to finance the country's infrastructure program.??

Amidst these developments, the Philippines has officially started the campaign period for the 2022 national elections in May. The issues in the West Philippine Sea and global security developments should guide the next set of leaders in formulating a stronger and more responsive Philippine foreign and security policy that prioritizes the country's national interests and the safety of its people. It is also crucial for the next administration to look into the region's changing economic and political landscape in order to strengthen international policies and make sound decisions for the country.??

RCEP enters into force??

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement among Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, China, Japan, and New Zealand, entered into force on January 1, 2022. China pushed the RCEP in 2012 to counter the then United States-led Trans-Pacific Partnership. The 16-member partnership is one of the largest free-trade blocs. Under the agreement, trade in goods among members will be subject to zero tariffs, strengthening the economic engagement among states and amplifying their participation in regional economic development.??

For South Korea, the agreement commenced on February 1, 2022. As for the remaining five states, specifically India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, and the Philippines, the effectivity date of the agreement is still to be determined. For the Philippines, the RCEP trade agreement is expected to improve the country's gross domestic product, foreign direct investments, and exports.??

Japan and Australia sign defense treaty?

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Prime Minister Scott Morrison virtually met on January 6, 2022, to sign the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA). The RAA will oversee the implementation of cooperative activities between the defense forces of both countries and further advance bilateral security and defense cooperation. In addition, the agreement would also lay the foundations for the greater contributions of Japan and Australia in the Indo-Pacific's peace and stability. The stable relations between Japan and Australia are necessary for guaranteeing a stable Indo-Pacific.??

US releases report on the South China Sea?

On January 12, 2022, the US Department of State released another "Limits in the Seas" report on China's maritime claims in the South China Sea. It concluded that China's maritime and historic rights claims in the disputed waters are "unlawful." The January 2022 report is the 150th publication in the series and was developed from the 2014 study, which similarly concluded that China's claim is not valid in terms of national boundary and historical rights. Since the 2014 report, China has consistently claimed sovereignty over maritime features, straight baselines, maritime zones, and historic rights in the South China Sea, which are inconsistent with international law.??

The Philippines, through the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), welcomed the report, which served to reaffirm the 2016 Arbitral Ruling. The Philippines and the United States, in their Joint Vision Statement last November 2021, agreed that China's claims in the South China Sea are inconsistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, as well as with the July 2016 ruling in favor of the Philippines. In addition, former DFA Secretary Albert Del Rosario echoed his support on the conclusion of the report. He said that confronting China on this matter will remain an "intergenerational struggle" and reiterated that support from the international community would be beneficial. As the campaign season has officially started, the former DFA secretary called on Filipino voters to "elect a government that would strongly fight for what is ours and for all nations to uphold the Rule of Law."??

In response to the report, the spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry of China, Wang Wenbin, reiterated that China has historical rights and sovereignty in the South China Sea. Through its joint efforts with the ASEAN countries, the spokesperson said that the situation in the disputed waters is "generally stable." This pronouncement contradicts the water cannon incident last November 2021 in the Philippines' Ayungin Shoal. The DFA has already filed 241 diplomatic protests as of December 2021 against China's activities within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.??

Biden and Kishida hold virtual summit??

After signing a new five-year defense pact in early January, the United States President Joseph Biden met with the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in a virtual meeting last January 21, 2022. The leaders emphasized the strength of the U.S.-Japan relationship and promoted the shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. They agreed to counter China's maneuvers to change the status quo in the East China Sea and the South China Sea and highlighted the significance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan strait through the peaceful settlement of the cross-strait issues. President Biden declared his support for Australia and Japan's RAA and reaffirmed the commitment of the United States to defend Japan on the issue of the Senkaku Islands, which is disputed with China. Both leaders also highlighted the importance of Quad as a key forum for advancing the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.??

Former DFA Secretary Del Rosario commented that the efforts of Japan and the United States to counter China's claims in the South China Sea are in line with the interest of the Philippines to safeguard the sovereign rights of the country in the West Philippine Sea.??

Philippines bolsters its military capability?

On January 28, 2022, the Department of National Defense (DND) and India's BrahMos Aerospace officially signed the PHP 18.9 billion contract to acquire Indian-made supersonic cruise missiles. In support of this agreement, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana and Indian Ambassador to the Philippines Shambhu Kumaran were present during the event. The agreement is part of the Armed Forces of the Philippines' (AFP) Horizon 2 of the Revised AFP Modernization program. It is also under the Philippine Navy's Shore-Based Anti-Ship Missile System Acquisition Project. Defense Secretary Lorenzana said that the acquisition of military assets will improve the military's capabilities in providing deterrence against any attempts to undermine the country's territorial claims in the West Philippine Sea.??

On a separate occasion on February 9, 2022, the?DND received PHP 1 billion worth of military equipment from China's Ministry of National Defense. China has also pledged its support for the capacity-building activities of the Presidential Security Group, Marawi rehabilitation efforts, and other humanitarian assistance and disaster response operations. The military equipment includes various rescue and relief equipment, drone systems, detectors, water purification vehicles, ambulances, firetrucks, X-ray machines, EOD (explosive ordinance disposal) robots, bomb disposal suits, transport vehicles, backhoes, dump trucks, forklifts, and earthmovers. The event was attended by Defense Secretary Lorenzana, Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian, acting Defense and Armed Forces Attaché Dou Xuding, Secretary to the Defense Attaché Maj. Lin Xinhong and delegates of the Chinese Diplomatic Corps. Despite the territorial issues in the West Philippine Sea, Secretary Lorenzana said that the Philippines?and China remain "civil, diplomatic, and friends" in other areas international relations.??

Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting?

On February 11, 2022, the fourth Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting transpired in Melbourne, Australia. It was attended by Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne, Indian Minister of External Affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar, Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs Hayashi Yoshimasa, and United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The ministers discussed their "positive and ambitious agenda" to promote a secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region. They have also expressed their commitment to cooperate on various challenges such as terrorism, maritime security, and global supply chain challenges. On maritime security, the foreign ministers reiterated the importance of international law, such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and a rules-based international order in managing the issues in the disputed waters of the East and South China Seas. The leaders also reaffirmed their commitment to a free, open, and inclusive rules-based order in a joint statement. They further reiterated the importance of addressing coercive economic policies and practices and upholding and strengthening the rules-based multilateral trading system. Moreover, the meeting also discussed other key areas, including climate change, cybersecurity, infrastructure development, education, and critical and emerging technologies.?

US Indo-Pacific Strategy?

On February 11, 2022, the United States released its Indo-Pacific strategy, which focuses on the goals of pursuing a free and open, connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient region. Among the challenges mentioned in the document is the strategic competition with China. It explains in detail how China is combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological capabilities to broaden its influence in the Indo-Pacific to be the “world’s most influential power.” The Indo-Pacific strategy serves as a response to China’s actions against the allies of the United States – economic coercion of Australia, territorial conflict with India, issues with Taiwan, and its expansive actions in the disputed waters of the East and South China Seas. As mentioned in the document, the strategy seeks to build a “balance of influence in a world that is maximally favorable” to the United States and its allies. Other challenges mentioned in the strategy is climate change and the global pandemic.?

New US ambassador to the Philippines??????

On February 4, 2022, US President Biden announced the nomination of diplomat MaryKay Carlson as the next ambassador of the US to the Philippines. She is currently the Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her professional experience in the diplomatic community includes her designation as Deputy Chief of Mission in New Delhi, India for three years. She has also held positions in US diplomatic missions in China (twice), Ukraine, Hong Kong, Mozambique, Kenya, and the Dominican Republic.??

The Philippines has not had an ambassador since former US Ambassador Sung Kim ended his four-year term in October 2020. Senior US diplomat Heather Variava has been ad interim Chargé d'Affaires at the US Embassy in Manila since September 2021.??The nomination of a new US ambassador to the Philippines signifies strengthening relations between the two states.??

Towards the May 2022 Polls?

As the Philippines officially enters the campaign season, candidates for the highest positions in government are expected to give more details into their proposed plans for the Philippine government, should they get elected. The next set of Filipino leaders must have a clear and strategic policy direction, especially on the issues of the West Philippine Sea and on China's aggressive behavior and expansionist agenda. A stronger and more responsive policy means prioritizing the country's national interests and leveraging the Philippines' 2016 arbitral victory.??

Therefore, the next President of the Philippines must uphold the country's national sovereignty and territorial integrity while prioritizing the development of a long-term security program that will efficiently modernize military forces and strengthen the country's alliances and partnerships. The new President must also enhance its multilateral cooperation with like-minded states, such as the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, to promote a rules-based international order and a free and open Indo-Pacific. According to the Social Weather Stations survey commissioned by the Stratbase ADR Institute, the United States, Japan, and Australia remain the topmost trusted countries by Filipinos, while China remains the least trusted.??

As more regional and national security developments continue to shape the Indo-Pacific, the Philippine government must be firm in prioritizing the country's national and security interests. Moreover, Filipino voters should scrutinize the candidates' campaign platforms as these will be crucial for the country in the next six years and beyond.??

The Philippines cannot endure another term of defeatist and weak policies, especially in the context of foreign policy and national security. Only through the power of the vote can Filipinos push for leaders who will safeguard Philippine interests and lead the country to a more peaceful, prosperous, and stable state of regional and international relations.