Straight from the States: Navigating the Electoral “Battleground” of Wisconsin

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While historically famous for cheese, brats, beer, subzero winters and, of course, the beloved Green Bay Packers, Wisconsin endures the national spotlight – and a tsunami of political ads – every four years as one of America’s “battleground states” in the presidential election.

Even though a majority of registered Wisconsin voters ultimately voted for the Democratic presidential candidate every cycle from 1988 to 2012, the final vote tally was never a foregone conclusion until the evening of Election Day. This was reinforced in 2016 by former President Donald Trump’s win in the state by less than 1% of the vote and again in 2020 by President Joe Biden’s win by a similar margin.

As fresh polling data from the Marquette University Law School Poll (perhaps the most reliable barometer of voter sentiment in Wisconsin) suggests, registered voters in Wisconsin are once again nearly evenly divided between those who support Vice President Kamala Harris (52%) vs. former President Donald Trump (48%) – with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points.

While the polling data and previous two election cycles certainly underscore Wisconsin’s status as an electoral battleground, there are three other key factors at play – all of which revolve around the importance of strategically driving voter turnout with less than a month to go until Election Day:

The Evolving “Battle” between Blue vs. Red Counties

In an interview last month with one of Wisconsin’s most highly respected journalists, Steve Walters, for The Isthmus , former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson (R), urged former President Donald Trump to campaign in “the belly of the beast” known as Dane County to boost his chances of winning Wisconsin in November. As home of the proudly progressive capital city of Madison and the flagship University of Wisconsin campus, it is no secret that Dane County is one of the bluest counties in the nation. Combined with blue Milwaukee County, these counties are where Democrats running for statewide office have historically garnered the majority of their votes.

Yet, as recently reported by Madison’s CBS affiliate, WISC-TV , the Republican Party is attempting to make inroads in Dane County, which is the state’s fastest-growing county after welcoming more than 10,000 new residents over the past year. Former President Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee in 28 years to visit Dane County just last week and will make a second appearance within “the belly of the beast” this week.

On the flip side, there are the bright red “WOW counties” of suburban Milwaukee in southeastern Wisconsin – Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington – where voters have traditionally delivered overwhelming margins for Republican statewide candidates every election cycle. However, between the “pro-Trump” vs. “anti-Trump” divisions within the Republican Party and being the home of the state’s Democrat Lieutenant Governor Sarah Rodriguez, Waukesha County is among the Democratic Party’s top get-out-the-vote (GOTV) targets this election cycle.

In just the last few weeks, Minnesota First Lady Gwen Walz and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (representing another battleground state) both campaigned in Waukesha County on behalf of Vice President Kamala Harris.

Although she has yet to visit Waukesha County, Vice President Harris did make a symbolic visit with former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (R-WY) last week to Ripon, the birthplace of the Republican Party located in the Republican stronghold of Fond du Lac County.

With 10 electoral college votes on the line, neither party is taking Wisconsin’s most populous counties for granted, regardless of historic blue vs. red voting trends.?

Dominating Voter Turnout in the Purple Counties

As less than 1% of the vote ultimately decided who won Wisconsin’s 10 electoral college votes in 2016 and in 2020, the state’s purple counties also factor prominently within each party’s GOTV strategy. Notably, these are counties that switched between delivering a victory for the Republican candidate one cycle and then the Democrat candidate the next cycle.

At least three of these counties include Columbia and Sauk (neighbors to Dane County) along with picturesque Door County in northeastern Wisconsin along Lake Michigan. According to data from the Wisconsin Elections Commission , all three counties voted for Trump in 2016 before Sauk County and Door County switched to voting for Biden in 2020. During the 2022 midterm elections, all three counties voted for incumbent Democrat Governor Tony Evers; however, Door County and Columbia County also voted to re-elect Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson.

The results referenced below also highlight the voter turnout patterns from one election cycle to the next – with a noticeable spike in turnout for the 2020 presidential election before dropping off for the 2022 midterms:

Sauk County*

• 2022 – Voted for Governor Tony Evers (D) with 15,285 votes over challenger Tim Michels (R) with 13,348 votes
• 2022 – Voted for former Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) with 14,618 votes over U.S. Senator Ron Johnson (R) with 14,289 votes
• 2020 – Voted for Joe Biden (D) with 18,108 votes over Donald Trump (R) with 17,493 votes
• 2016 – Voted for Donald Trump (R) with 14,799 votes over Hillary Clinton (D) with 14,690 votes

Door County*

• 2022 – Voted for Gov. Evers (D) with 8,984 votes over Tim Michels (R) with 8,145 votes
• 2022 – Voted for Sen. Johnson (R) with 8,685 votes over Mandela Barnes (D) with 8,611
• 2020 – Voted for Joe Biden (D) with 10,044 votes over Donald Trump (R) with 9,752 votes
• 2016 – Voted for Donald Trump (R) with 8,580 votes over Hillary Clinton (D) with 8,014 votes

Columbia County*

• 2022 – Voted for Gov. Evers (D) with 14,168 votes over Tim Michels (R) with 13,008 votes
• 2022 – Voted for Sen. Johnson (R) with 13,899 votes over Mandela Barnes (D) with 13,410
• 2020 – Voted for Donald Trump (R) with 16,927 votes over Joe Biden (D) with 16,410 votes
• 2016 – Voted for Donald Trump (R) with 14,163 votes over Hillary Clinton (D) with 13,528 votes

* Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

Split-Ticket Voting Trend

As any campaign strategist with experience in the state will acknowledge, Wisconsinites have a tendency to split their votes between Democrat and Republican candidates as they work their way down their general election ballots. While they may favor one party’s presidential candidate over the other based on broader national issues, they may be satisfied with the job being done by their local officials, Members of Congress, governor and/or state legislators of the opposite party.

The same can be said when voting for two statewide candidates running for different offices, as Wisconsinites re-elected Democrat Governor Tony Evers and Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson during the 2022 midterms.

In an interview with Spectrum News , Mordecai Lee, professor emeritus at UW-Milwaukee and a longtime observer of Wisconsin politics, noted that while not significant in number, there still could be enough split-ticket voting to make a difference in the outcome of this year’s presidential election. As Spectrum News pointed out, approximately 20,000 votes decided the presidential election in Wisconsin in 2016 and in 2020.

These unique dynamics only reinforce the importance of strategically targeted, hyperlocal messaging and community engagement among candidates running for office in a battleground state like Wisconsin. In other words, Wisconsin voters expect candidates to show up and personally make their case as opposed to relying solely on campaign ads and direct mail. Knowing the difference that a few thousand votes will have on the outcome of a major election, candidates must effectively localize and tailor their messaging in way that not only resonates with voters but drives turnout where it matters most.

Similarly, companies and organizations looking to make an impact in their priority markets need to thoughtfully show up and ensure their strategy is uniquely tailored to a specific community – whether it’s located in a blue, red, or purple state. Every day, the team at Direct Impact – which includes former campaign strategists – helps guide our clients through a myriad of community dynamics while strategically communicating in a way that resonates among target audiences. After November 5th and heading into January 2025, we are ready to help our clients successfully navigate the new landscape and achieve their objectives.

Stephanie Kundert is a Senior Vice President at Direct Impact, Burson’s premier grassroots firm. She helps clients ranging from nonprofits to Fortune 100 companies navigate the local political landscape while providing guidance on stakeholder engagement, coalition building and effective messaging strategies to generate awareness around and build support for key policy objectives. A native of Wisconsin and a University of Wisconsin graduate, Stephanie counseled several candidates and managed state and federal political campaigns across the state’s purple campaign trail during the 2008, 2010 and 2012 election cycles.? ?