Storytelling about the future
Diana Stafie (Parfeni)
Foresight - Future Strategy I Scenario Planning I Trends
Last month, I participated in an insightful masterclass organized during the Future Conference of the
Italian Institute for the Future
. The focus of this program was on Causal Layered Analysis
What is CLA?
CLA as an approach helps us to think beyond the surface level when dealing with problems, challenges, or issues. It’s about moving from immediate, observable issues to the deeper assumptions and stories that shape how we see the world. CLA breaks problems down into four layers:?
[CLA starts with the concept of LITANY and I feel the need of sharing some details on what the word means, especially for non-English natives (in my case, it is not a word that I frequently use): "a long list of unpleasant things, especially things that are repeated, e.g. The manufacturers are reported to have received a litany of complaints from dissatisfied customers." (Cambridge dictionary)]
1. Litany: This is the starting point, the surface level of a problem, often focused on day-to-day concerns or data. Think of it as what we hear in the news, statistics, or common complaints about an issue. For example: "University degrees are not being pursued as much by the younger generation." or "Youth are anxious about the future." For business contexts, the litanies might include: "Retail sales are declining due to online competition." or "FMCG companies are struggling with sustainability goals and consumer pressure."?Think of some examples from your experience, personal or profesional!
2. Systemic Causes
3. Worldview/Discourse: At this layer, we uncover the beliefs, ideologies, and cultural perspectives that influence how systems are structured and operate. For businesses, it could be a worldview of “growth at any cost” that affects sustainability efforts. In societal issues, it might be the belief that “politics is corrupt and unchangeable,” which discourages political participation.
4. Myths/Metaphors: At the deepest level, we find the overarching narratives, symbols, or metaphors that define how people view the world and the problem we are analyzing. For example, if we explore why young people avoid politics, we might find a metaphor that politics is seen as a "dirty game," limiting their engagement. In business, a metaphor like "survival of the fittest" might influence competitive behaviors in markets.
Twofold CLA process: Moving from the PRESENT to the DESIRED FUTURE
...or in other words, the power of storytelling!
So, what made the CLA process during the masterclass particularly fascinating for me was that we approached these layers in two steps. First, we worked our way down the left side—this side represents the today, analyzing the present situation. Then, we transitioned to the right side, working our way up from the bottom, where we focused on crafting a desired future for that specific issue. This is where the magic happens—when we envision the future, we start with the story, the metaphor that will guide the new reality we want to create. This process helps to design solutions that are deeply rooted in a long-term vision, not just quick fixes.
Versatility of CLA: public policy, business strategy
I believe CLA is highly versatile and can be applied in various contexts, whether in policy development, business strategy, or personal development environments. For example:
- Policy Development: Governments could use CLA to explore pressing issues such as high conflict resolutions or issues around corruption levels. At the litany level, you hear complaints about corruption in daily life. But at deeper layers, CLA could reveal systemic causes, like weak enforcement of laws or lack of transparency, and even deeper, the worldview that "corruption is a necessary evil," which might be driving the issue.
- Business Strategy: For companies facing challenges, like declining sales in traditional retail sectors, CLA can reveal the underlying causes, such as shifting consumer preferences toward digital experiences (systemic causes). The worldview might be that "brick-and-mortar stores are outdated," and at the metaphor level, it might be seen as a "sinking ship." Reframing the future with a new metaphor, such as "stores as experiential hubs," could help businesses craft new strategies.
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- Youth Anxiety and Future Aspirations: One of the discussions in our masterclass focused on youth anxiety about the future. Today’s litany might be "young people don’t dream anymore; they’re overwhelmed." Systemic causes might include an educational system that doesn’t foster creativity, rigid job markets, or economic instability. The worldview might be "the system is rigged, and individual action won’t change anything." At the metaphor level, young people may feel they’re "trapped in a broken system." Shifting the narrative to "youth as change-makers" could allow the creation of a more hopeful and empowering future.
On the short term you can lead with data, but on the long term the story might be more powerful
One of the most powerful insights from the masterclass is the idea that, while short-term decisions are often guided by data and quick fixes, long-term change
CLA is not about forecasting or prediction but about storytelling, a means for the construction and exploration of possible worlds. (Cate Watson)
What’s next?
I have been using CLA in a few contexts so far, but not as often as I would have liked. So, I am planning something new—a workshop on applying CLA to specific Romanian challenges (in Romanian). The objective is to familiarize participants with this foresight tool while also creating a space where we all contribute to resolving issues that affect us. This session will dive deeper into how we can apply CLA to specific, real-world challenges.
Some of the key litanies we might work on include:
- Making the teaching profession cool again: How do we shift the narrative around education to attract more young people to become passionate teachers?
- Engaging young people in politics: How can we create a metaphor that encourages greater participation in shaping political futures, particularly in Romania?
- Corruption in Romania: How do we reframe the narrative around corruption to inspire systemic change?
These are just a few of the questions we will explore, but the possibilities are endless. By using CLA, we can craft the stories that will define the future we want to build. This will be a workshop exclusively for members of our WhatsApp channel.
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Resources:
Health Leader & Idea Shaper | Keynote Speaker & Published Author | Mindset Coach & Personal Branding | Techie Millennial & Start-up Founder | Story Maker & Content Curator | Community Builder & Master Connector
3 个月cool article, great workshop, useful tool ??
Member of Expert Network at World Economic Forum / Empowering Organizations to Build Competencies for a Dynamic Future
4 个月Thank you for sharing this insightful explanation of CLA framework, Diana! Looking at it from a transformation strategy perspective, I think CLA could help strategists construct a meaningful change story/ vision, using a structured approach rather than a fancy statement. I also enjoyed Sohail Inayatullah TEDx talk; it added even more depth to the concept.
CMF Design Trend Forecasting & Execution | Scenario Planning & Foresighting | Stanford Business School Design Thinking Cohort 21
4 个月Love the simplicity of the explanation. Thanks for sharing this Diana. This information is a resource.
Pretty much as the Iceberg metaphor, isn’t it? Valuable as such
Strategic Foresight Coach, PhD candidate.
5 个月Highly recommended