Story Time – Dragon Fruit and AI Hallucinations
The Swynnerton?Plan
Dragon fruit is where coffee was in 1905 when the missionaries were trying it out at Kibwezi and at Tigoni.
Then in 1954 an agricultural officer called Roger Swynnerton deviced what was later called “The Swynnerton Plan. This was a systematic introduction of cash crops and land demarcation for small holders farmers in Kenya. This was a 20 year plan. The British government then gave the colony of Kenya an aid of 5 million pounds to implement the plan.
The Swynnerton plan?reversed previous agricultural policy and formally promoted African agricultural production. The plan marked the beginning of systematic encouragement of African commercial agriculture for domestic and urban markets.
The colonial government used fiat – the force of law to implement the Swynnerton Plan.
The results were dramatic -?the value of recorded output from the small-holdings rose from ￡5.2 million in 1955 to ￡14 million in 1964, coffee accounting for 55 percent of the increase.
In Kilungu hills when the mzungu agricultural officer called “Stoller” visited our land accompanied with the area chief and henchmen, “Stoller” decided our land was not good for coffee.
My father never forgave him and years later in the 70s my father planted coffee trees on the said land, and sure enough the Ruiru 11 Robusta coffee plants never did well. We got some buni and that was all.
What?stark?in my mind is something my father told me years later. While he was in Machakos school in the 60s, the boys that?came?from areas where they planted coffee (like Kithangathini in Kilungu where former PS Mbindyo of finance hailed from – there is a coffee factory there to this day) –?these?boys walked on air.
And so throughout my meanderings I have always been on the lookout for a cash crop for dry lands, lands where tea, coffee or pyrethrum cannot thrive. For I knew too well the effects of a crop planted once and harvested for 20 to 50 years, I knew its effect on the livelihood of a homestead. It was magical.
Enter The Dragon
I have seen, heard of, and researched numerous crops but none took my collective being by storm as dragon fruit.
I first?came?across it in 2015, at?Nakumatt?when a friend who had just come back from?china?called me over to show me something crazy – and crazy it was. One kilogram of the fruit was retailing at the princely sum of Kenya shilling 2,499. Madness. It had been imported from Vietnam.
Since then I have danced around this fruit (remember how my people the Akamba love their music, dancing and having a good laugh) and it has interesting credentials:
1) The plant loves plenty of sunshine and its roots rot in plenty of rain;
2) The fruit is a super food with incredible medicinal properties and a promoter of a long life on earth;
3) It commands a good price internationally;
4) Western Europe, Middle East and North America are yet to consume this fruit at the level they need to;
5) Dragon fruit plant practices a form of photosynthesis called C4 or CAM photosynthesis - hence the plant is able to thrive in Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASALs) because they are able to use CAM photosynthesis to conserve water and efficiently use carbon dioxide;
6) The fruit can be converted to numerous products, from wines, jams, beauty products to fragrant candles; and
7) The whole plant is useful in more ways than just one.
Basically the perfect cash crop for A SAL in Kenya and by extension Sub-Sahara Africa.
chatGPT High On Hallucinogenics
One day, early this year, as I was conversing with AI about Dragon Fruit, I asked after a long conversation building on almost a year of conversation what are the benefits of Dragon Fruit farming in combating climate change.
And the AI spews out among other things the following…
“ In Kenya, the Tunda Moto project is planting one million dragon fruit trees in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs). The project is expected to sequester over one million tons of carbon dioxide per year”.
This was one of the three examples of how dragon fruit is being used to combat climate change, the other two were in India and Vietnam.
We continued with the conversation, we dive into CAM photosynthesis but all the while something was bothering me – the words “The project is expected to sequester over one million tons of carbon dioxide per year”.
That is one million plants to sequester one million tons of carbon dioxide per year.
And so I throw in the following question.
Engineer:?“above you said "In Kenya, the Tunda Moto project is planting one million dragon fruit trees in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs). The project is expected to sequester over one million tons of carbon dioxide per year".?Can you please explain step by step how you arrived at the figure of over one million tons of carbon dioxide per year?”
Kata Mwingi (Many Jives)
And chatGPT AI starts spinning fantastic tales that would put to shame the best of the best in my boyhood base of “Kata Mwingi” at Bahati Estate in Nairobi Eastlands.
The following was the full answer for this question – no editing done:
chatGPT AI: “The figure of over one million tons of carbon dioxide per year sequestered by the Tunda Moto project is based on the following assumptions:
Here is a more detailed explanation of how the figure was calculated:
Based on these assumptions, the Tunda Moto project is expected to sequester over one million tons of carbon dioxide per year. This is a significant amount of carbon dioxide, and it will help to mitigate climate change and protect the environment.
It is important to note that these are just assumptions, and the actual amount of carbon dioxide that the project sequesters may vary. However, the project is confident that it will be able to sequester a significant amount of carbon dioxide and make a positive impact on the environment.
The Tunda Moto project is an important initiative that is helping to address climate change and improve the livelihoods of farmers in ASALs. The project is a model for how dragon fruit plants can be used to sequester carbon dioxide and mitigate climate change.”
Note the following sentence in the first bullet: “Each dragon fruit tree will sequester approximately one ton of carbon dioxide per year.”
Lord have mercy, this is gold, green gold yes, but still 24 carat pure gold in dollars, sterling pounds or euros.?So went my mind.
For to sequester (remove or absorb) approximately one ton of carbon dioxide per year means to produce approximately one carbon credit per year.
OK,?What is a Carbon Credit?
When in one year you remove?one ton of Co2?from the atmosphere?or?you?stop from emitting one ton of Co2?to the atmosphere, then you have created one carbon credit.
That one carbon credit?(CC)?can be sold anywhere from one dollar to 200 dollars depending?on?its quality and other attending characteristics like how many other SDGs you may have helped to achieve in the processes of producing that one?CC.
领英推荐
Now you are starting to sense the growing excitement in the dancing mukamba’s?psyche. This was an angle I had not seen about dragon fruit, and it had profound implications in the financing of the project.
And so I pressed on with my conversation with the AI.
More Kata Mwingi (More Many Jives)
Engineer: “Please provide a citation of where studies have shown that dragon fruit trees can sequester up to one ton of carbon dioxide per year?”
chatGPT AI: “Sure. Here is a citation of a study that has shown that dragon fruit trees can sequester up to one ton of carbon dioxide per year:
Study:?Carbon Sequestration Potential of Dragon Fruit (Hylocereus undatus) Plantation in Southern Thailand Authors:?Suthawan Chanthorn, Jintana Kaewklum, and Pattaraporn Chanthorn Journal:?EnvironmentAsia Volume:?14 Issue:?1 Pages:?1-10 Year:?2021 Link:?https://www.environmentasia.
Key Findings:
This study was conducted in southern Thailand, where dragon fruit is a major crop. The study found that dragon fruit trees can sequester a significant amount of carbon dioxide, and that dragon fruit plantations can play a role in mitigating climate change.
It is important to note that the amount of carbon dioxide that a dragon fruit tree can sequester may vary depending on a number of factors, such as the size of the tree, the climate, and the soil conditions. However, this study provides evidence that dragon fruit trees can sequester a significant amount of carbon dioxide and make a positive impact on the environment.”
Waah, fantastic, it was getting better and better.?Next.
Engineer: “Are there any other studies that have shown similar results regarding the carbon sequestration potential of dragon fruit trees?”
chatGPT AI: “Yes, there are a number of other studies that have shown similar results regarding the carbon sequestration potential of dragon fruit trees. Here are a few examples:
Key Findings:
Key Findings:
Key Findings:
These studies all provide evidence that dragon fruit trees can sequester a significant amount of carbon dioxide and make a positive impact on the environment. Dragon fruit plantations can play a role in mitigating climate change by sequestering carbon dioxide and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
It is important to note that the amount of carbon dioxide that a dragon fruit tree can sequester may vary depending on a number of factors, such as the size of the tree, the climate, and the soil conditions. However, these studies provide strong evidence that dragon fruit trees have the potential to sequester a significant amount of carbon dioxide and make a positive impact on the environment.”
This was in mid January this year, so we went on conversing with my AI friend about carbon credits, carbon standards and carbon projects. I never touched the links, until yesterday.
A Straw House:
Friends, one CC per dragon fruit tree per year is a game changer of an order of magnitude. As Professor Ragi would put it - It was Huge.?
So I did a lot of preparation, did plenty of work,?and made?my pitch ready for the?world's?major streaming financiers in the world of natural carbon credit projects.
My whole?pitch was premised?on “ one dragon fruit plant = one carbon credit per year” which was based on those three research supporting links that I never clicked, that I never opened.
Then comes the inevitable question, and this while on an online meeting, “is there any research proving this about dragon fruit – that the plant sequesters one tone of carbon dioxide per year?”.
And the dancing mukamba answer, sure, here are the three research papers supporting the one dragon fruit plant producing one carbon credit assumption.
I even went further and said– “even one ton is low.?Kenya being?in the proper tropics, smack on the equator, our plants will sequester well over 1.4 tons per year, but since we love you, then we can settle for one carbon credit per plant per year”.
And wham – the links don’t open. And we are all online, looking at each other.
None of them?opened. NONE.
The links by the AI are fake, made up. Even the people are fake. Nothing but hot AI air.
It was good I have a thick skin and a penchant for the truth – for I shared the log where I had kept my whole conversation with my AI buddy and added the statement I never doubted the studies and never tried the links until that very moment when all of us were trying them out.
My AI buddy was?daydreaming?all the while, high on some digital flavor of mushrooms when she made that one million plants sequestering one million tons of co2. She then continued with that path of creative thinking on subsequent questions on studies supporting her assumption.
But the worst bit of it all, I also day dreamed with her high?on digital?mushrooms of my own flavor.
And so my house of straw?came?stumbling down.
A refresh or a new conversation which starts without dependency on past conversation would have saved me the cold sweating I went through as my whole premises for financing come down.
That was yesterday.
Thank you
Stay hungry. Stay foolish – Steve Jobs.