The Story of Hovedstadens Letbane

Inspired by Bent Flyvbjerg’s recent comment on LinkedIn about the California High-Speed Rail and his excellent book How Big Things Get Done, I couldn’t help but reflect on Hovedstadens Letbane as a smaller-scale but equally illustrative case.

In Denmark’s bustling Capital Region, an ambitious vision took shape to create a 28-kilometer light rail line connecting eight municipalities from Ish?j in the south to Lyngby in the north. The project promised to revolutionize public transportation, reduce car dependency, and seamlessly connect residential areas with business hubs. With a total of 29 stations, the light rail was envisioned as a green and efficient alternative for daily commuters.

Originally planned to open in 2025, the project received widespread support from both politicians and the public. Construction began with high expectations, but, much like California’s High-Speed Rail, the reality proved far more complex.

Delays and escalating costs: what happened?

By late 2024, the project faced delays, with the southern section expected to open in late 2025 and the northern section, including Lyngby, delayed until mid-2026. The original budget grew significantly due to global supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and unforeseen construction challenges, such as difficulties building bridges over major highways.

While Hovedstadens Letbane remains on track for completion within its revised scope, the delays and increased costs raise important questions: Could some of these challenges have been avoided with better planning? What lessons might have been learned from Flyvbjerg’s How Big Things Get Done?

What could have been done differently (the-always-very-clever-hindsight-insight)?

Flyvbjerg’s book highlights common pitfalls in large-scale projects and offers strategies to avoid them. If the planners of Hovedstadens Letbane had integrated these principles, several challenges could have been mitigated.

One issue was an underestimation of the project’s complexity. Early phases of construction did not fully account for the technical challenges of building bridges over heavily trafficked highways or managing construction in densely populated areas. Following Flyvbjerg’s advice to conduct thorough risk assessments and plan for worst-case scenarios might have reduced delays caused by unforeseen obstacles.

Another challenge was an overly optimistic timeline. The milestones did not adequately account for potential disruptions like global supply chain issues and labor shortages. A more realistic schedule, informed by benchmarking similar projects, could have set achievable goals and minimized public disappointment over delays.

The project also failed to anticipate external factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical events, that disrupted supply chains. Flyvbjerg emphasizes the importance of scenario planning. Incorporating flexibility into procurement and staffing strategies could have mitigated these disruptions.

Delays were further exacerbated by frustration from municipalities and the public, driven by insufficient communication about progress and setbacks. Consistent, transparent updates to stakeholders, aligned with Flyvbjerg’s principles for managing expectations, could have maintained trust and support.

While the budget increase is modest compared to some other large projects, a higher initial contingency budget and rigorous questioning of cost assumptions could have prepared the project for financial surprises.

A smaller scale, but a similar lesson

Unlike the California High-Speed Rail, which has been reduced to a “bullet train to nowhere,” Hovedstadens Letbane will eventually be completed. However, it illustrates how even smaller-scale projects can fall victim to many of the same challenges when planning and execution are not grounded in proven strategies.

Perhaps if the planners had consulted How Big Things Get Done, they might have navigated these challenges more effectively, delivering the project on time and closer to its original budget. Although the light rail will fulfill its purpose, the journey highlights the importance of Flyvbjerg’s lessons: visionary projects require visionary planning, rooted in realism, risk awareness, and flexibility.

P.S. Reflecting on Hovedstadens Letbane and the lessons from Flyvbjerg’s How Big Things Get Done reminds me how similar these challenges are to my own book-writing project. What started as a clear vision has stretched over three years, facing delays, shifting goals, and unexpected obstacles—echoing many of the pitfalls Flyvbjerg describes. It’s a humbling reminder that whether it’s infrastructure or ideas, turning big plans into reality requires both ambition and careful execution.