The story is focused on Political Tensions, Oil Price, Economy, Nationalization and Migrant Workers.

Journalist : Sir, currently we are working on a story about Gulf countries. Would be great if you share your thoughts, which can add value to our story. Sir, the story is focused on Political Tensions, Oil Price, Economy, Nationalisation and Migrant Workers.

Answers by Dr Ajay Kumar, Chairman & Managing Director FOX PETROLEUM.

1)       How much is the Qatar affected by the blockade as seven months have passed after the blockade has been imposed in July 2017?

Ans. When it erupted in June 2017, the “Qatar crisis” drew immediate speculation that the emirate’s enemies, who accuse it of sponsoring terrorism and destabilising the region, were preparing for some sort of military action at one point even coming “pretty close to doing something in Qatar”. But failed to convince Americans and European allies; As well as India didn’t want to have any close fight which harm Indian interest in the region. It will hamper 80 Billion Dollars revenue turbulence; Hence USA & India jointly made specific pressure not to disturb Qatar militarily and disturb the maritime.

This blockade has two kinds of effect – one is home grown financial crisis, as Qatari Exchange dips by 10% although they are gaining with a slow momentum and reached to 6%. Another threat is political and military coup by other forces like Saudi, Bahrain, UAE and Egypt;

At the same time we must understand that – Qatar has a fine Economy; They have lost almost 15 Billion dollars due to blockade and every month still losing USD $100 million due to air space blockade by many countries and food supply, but they made this crisis minor by fueling cheaper fuel to there National Airways and other Countries too; But at the same time, they have engineered taking ties with United States by purchasing 12 Billion USD Fighter Planes; Iran came in support, Oman is in support as well as Kuwait too. This blockade is marginalized to some extent, I must say at larger extent. So, this blockade is power struggle in Gulf. Can be resolved with negotiations. It will impact very less if short term but in long term it may effect Business.

Qatar Crisis can be called a Crisis if Qatar starts losing USD 400 Billion per Quarter; But it seems not happening, hence you can say Qatar at this moment is safe from financial meltdown and military coup or Change of Guard within there own in ruler ship.

2)      Will Qatar will fall soon or will it overcome the crisis?

Ans. No Chance of Qatar falling in like Syria or Iraq; Qatar ties with USA is a shift of policy to downplay Saudi Arabia sanctions, as Qatar earns mostly in Dollars thru LNG Exports and Crude; It will hardly impact Qatar in long term till then United States put Dollar Embargo; seems not at this moment, as USA is using Qatari Airbase for Military purpose;

In the name of terror funding, even USA pointed fingers along with Anti-Qatar Club but at the same time, USA can not open one more front in Gulf; So, there is a chances that Qatar will come on negotiation table as well as second plan is Change of Guard in Qatar which can only be done by USA, seems impossible. Hence, not seeing immediate any kind of fall out or military coup in Qatar by externals. Even if it is bloodless, beyond the White House such a coup might not fully suit the US’s broader interests – its military facilities could be affected and a delicate balancing game between Saudi Arabia and Iran could be disrupted.

3)      My interviews reveal that migrant workers, at all level, are affected by delay in salary payments in Qatar. Will it worsen?

Ans. As per my knowledge and information, Qatar is Government Employees are paid on time as well as there exports has not fallen by any minor percent, so no point in revenue loss for Qatar to avoid payments; But for migrants may have got some problems, like from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE has closed all doors for Qatar; Hence Companies operating between Saudi Arabia –Qatar, UAE –Qatar, Bahrain –Qatar must be suffering; Yes it will go to bigger level, may see major job cut in those Companies only. Mostly, Indian employments may get trouble. But it can not go for a long run;

4)     Sir, additionally, Kuwait, Saudi and Oman are strengthening their nationalisation process. How much is this going to affect migrant sending countries like India and other Asian countries.

Ans. Nationalisation process is not new in Gulf, they want their people to be deployed but Companies can’t afford job incompetence at work place, hence they pay salary to local youths but never uses them in office; Hence, it becomes costly for Companies but till then it is not giving “loss” in the profit, all is well. India work force is highly appreciated in Gulf because they hardly complain in the job place; Even if, some crisis occurs in Qatar, Indian work force demand in other GCC will not decrease.

Between 650,000-700,000 Indians are estimated to be living in Qatar—that's nearly twice the number of native Qataris. Almost half of the Indian population is from Kerala. Understandably, the chief minister of the southern state, has already written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi asking him to ensure the safety of these non-resident Indians (NRIs). But it is not needed at this unsure shot moment.

5)      According to you, what is the way out from this Gulf crisis. Should migrant workers no more look at Gulf as a land of opportunities...

Ans. Way out of this Gulf Crisis is in the hands of USA, Saudi Arabia and UAE; These Countries want a democracy in Qatar or there nominee as ruler, which is highly impossible. And, on the issue of Qatar, GCC is divided in two parts on Qatar crisis- both sides have almost equal power; One side economic power and other side is heavy military power; Hence, most likely till December another round of formula will come to ease this tension from US & Saudi side;

Negative; No Arab country can mange themselves without the external work force; Hence, Gulf Job seekers will not see any difficulty; Even it will increase as Saudi Arabia is going to invest in Solar in addition to there Hydrocarbon Business; That too considering Indian man force. Specially in Qatar, apart from the migrant workers, India is economically tied to Qatar in other crucial ways. The size of the annual bilateral trade between the two countries is as much as $18 billion. Qatar is the biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to India. Qatar exports 15% of its output to India, which, in turn, amounts to 65% of India's global import of LNG. India also imports ethylene, propylene, ammonia, urea and polyethylene from Qatar, making it the third largest export destination for Qatar, after Japan and South Korea.