Stormy Seas
Acharya "national interests ahead of international cooperation", 尊敬的先生们女士们, Dutch warship stirs South China Sea, "the path to San Francisco" will not be an easy one, and there's no self-driving to it."
UPDATE: In responding to COVID-19, nations—large and small, democratic and authoritarian—have predictably behaved in similar ways. They have put sovereignty, borders, and their national interests ahead of international cooperation. This phenomenon proved prominent for the United States and China, the two strongest powers, and with small nations, such as Singapore and New Zealand.
尊敬的先生们女士们，大家上午好。非常荣幸能受中方之邀参加第十届北京香山论坛。在此，我想感谢中方的热情款待也祝贺中方成功举办第十届北京香山论坛。接下来，我用英语继续演讲。
THE NETHERLANDS plans to send one of its warships to patrol the South China Sea with the Philippines, the Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs said on Monday, amid worsening tensions between Manila and Beijing.
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said on Saturday that "the path to San Francisco" will not be an easy one, and there is "no self-driving to it." Therefore, both sides need to earnestly "return to Bali [consensus]," truly implement the common understanding reached by the two leaders, remove disruption, overcome obstacles, build consensus, and accumulate outcomes.
A "Third Way" for World Order After COVID-19
By Amitav Acharya
The pandemic will accelerate the development of a "multiplex" world
In responding to COVID-19, nations—large and small, democratic and authoritarian—have predictably behaved in similar ways. They have put sovereignty, borders, and their national interests ahead of international cooperation. This phenomenon proved prominent for the United States and China, the two strongest powers, and with small nations, such as Singapore and New Zealand.
Of course, the U.S. and Chinese responses to the pandemic have raised more questions about how the actions of these two countries might affect world order. Contrary to conventional thinking, Chinese and American behavior during the pandemic is not producing a new Cold War or a resurrected liberal international order. Instead, the pandemic is most likely to shift many countries to pursue a different kind of world order—one that reflects multiple centers of authority and capacity in global governance.
Different National Responses
The U.S. and Chinese responses to COVID-19 pursued geopolitical goals but with divergent approaches that produced different outcomes. According to?Johns Hopkins University, as of July 7, 2021, the United States lost 606,121 lives out of 33,758,758 million cases. China reported 4,848 deaths and 103,948 cases. Even with doubts about its official COVID-19 statistics, China protected its people better than the United States protected the American people. But, for the rest of the world, the more pressing question was whether China, as the country that?experienced?the first outbreak, and the United States, as a long-standing leader in global health, did enough to protect people in other nations.
The United States and China responded to COVID-19 in very different ways internationally. Under President Donald J. Trump, the United States embraced an "America First"?ideology and shunned international cooperation. By contrast, China pursued an activist foreign policy. As President Trump denounced globalization, supply chains, and the World Health Organization (WHO), President Jinping Xi defended globalization and doubled down on Chinese support for, and leadership claims on, global governance. While the United States shopped the world for masks and ventilators, China launched ambitious global mask and vaccine diplomacy efforts.
Nor did China's successful domestic response establish the supremacy of the "China model" of governance. China is not the only nation to have handled COVID-19 well. Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore also responded effectively, despite different political systems. To be sure, the pandemic response has made Australia look more like China than Great Britain, but China has not made Singapore—itself critical of Western-style, liberal democracy—seethe with jealousy. As Bilahari Kaushikan, a former official of Singapore's Foreign Ministry,?said: "Beijing first bungled by trying to cover up, allowing the virus to take hold in China and rapidly spread beyond its borders. But the draconian measures only a Leninist system is capable of taking brought it under control, albeit at great cost, not all of which was borne by?China."
No matter how strongly China has complained, people around the world continue to associate the origins of COVID-19 with China. International media have highlighted China’s denials, repression of Chinese citizens for their early warnings, and doubts about Beijing's transparency and cooperation with WHO, which delayed WHO missions to China and undercut the findings of those missions.??
In the United States, the Trump administration "chose not to provide leadership during a global crisis,"?as Thomas Wright?put?it, and failed to respond effectively to the pandemic at home. The absurdity of President Trump and his loyalists rejecting mask mandates and social distancing in the name of "freedom" became a caricature of American values before the global audience.?
Yet, the toxic partisanship of U.S. domestic politics dampens cheer and hope. Trump's rejection of the result of the 2020 presidential election, attempts to overturn it through lies and coercion—including the January 6 insurrection—and the prospect of Trump returning to power undermine international respect for the United States. In these circumstances, the Biden administration's revival of the U.S. commitment to multilateralism and cooperation will not restore a U.S.- or Western-dominated world order. The United States faces a long and daunting challenge in restoring faith in its global leadership.?
The Pandemic and the Emerging Multiplex World?
In short, COVID-19 makes neither the United States nor China appealing to the rest of the world. A sizeable number of countries could, with good reason, take a Shakespearean "plague on both your houses" approach to world order in the wake of the pandemic. A similar thing happened during the Cold War, when many countries rejected both superpower blocs and worked to create alternative forms and mechanisms of international cooperation. Such a "third way" is possible now.
Rather than locking the world into a new bipolar structure or resurrecting the liberal international order, the pandemic will accelerate the development of this multiplex world. Recovery from the devastation wrought by COVID-19 requires G-Plus governance and cooperation because neither geopolitics nor U.S. global leadership can manage multiplexity effectively. The failures of China and the United States during the pandemic underscore the need to explore and facilitate alternative configurations of governance authority and capacity in the post-pandemic world order. This imperative requires looking past conventional wisdom about the U.S.-China rivalry and the rhetoric about "America is Back"?to find new ideas and possibilities, especially those percolating in the Global South.
Read more here.
Singapore Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen speech in Beijing
Introduction
尊敬的先生们女士们，大家上午好。非常荣幸能受中方之邀参加第十届北京香山论坛。在此，我想感谢中方的热情款待也祝贺中方成功举办第十届北京香山论坛。接下来，我用英语继续演讲。
Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of the Singapore Ministry of Defence and the Singapore Armed Forces, let me congratulate the China Association for Military Sciences and the China Institute for International Strategic Studies for hosting this 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum. It is an important event, especially in troubled times that we now have,and I wish continued success for this important global forum for this and the years ahead.
The last time we met at the Xiangshan Forum was in 2019; barely four years and yet the world has changed on us. Three epochal events, each with a global impact, have taken place. All countries fought and struggled against COVID-19 from December 2019 and many countries are still recovering; Europe is at war fought on the battlegrounds of Ukraine precipitated by Russia's invasion in February 2021. For this generation at least, hopes for integration of Russia with the European Union have all but evaporated. Seeds of growing tension and conflict, which has happened at the turn of the 20th century and the early 1900s, have again been sown for the future. The Middle East is once again in turmoil, in the aftermath of Hamas' terror attacks on Israel. It has been a difficult time especially for innocent civilians.
If there is any lesson that we can all learn from these unanticipated events, it is that peace is precarious and never a given for any country, region and indeed our world. As defenders of our nations, as commanders of militaries, as senior officials and Ministers of Defence, it will be us who prosecute war, if needed and called upon. Because we have this responsibility, we must also know the cost of war and the heavy price it will extract on parties involved. And we must affirm that no efforts are wasted or spared to keep the peace, because it is peace that allows our countries and citizens to progress. "Without security, there can be no progress, no economic future". This was the key message that Singapore's founding Prime Minister Mr Lee Kuan Yew conveyed to senior military commanders of the Singapore Armed Forces in 2012. He was close to 90 years old then, but felt as passionately about this belief as ever.
Open and Inclusive Regional Architecture
Establishing stability for peace does not mean an absence of disagreements with neighbours or other powers – that has never happened in human history. We should advance our understanding, if not trust with one another, despite our differences, to find common ground for mutual cooperation and benefit. This has been the driving aspiration and motivation for the ADMM-Plus – the 10 nations of ASEAN and eight Plus partners of Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Russia and the US. In this regard, the ADMM-Plus aims to have strategic dialogue on regional security issues, as well as practical cooperation amongst all its militaries. I remind us that the ADMM-Plus represents more than four billion people and account for a significant proportion of the world's military forces.
Singapore values China's consistent and constructive partnership in the ADMM-Plus, especially through the Experts' Working Groups and other multilateral exercises such as the ASEAN-China Maritime Exercise, which Singapore had the privilege of facilitating in 2018. These regular military-to-military touchpoints are invaluable in fostering mutual trust and understanding.
But to be effective, the ADMM-Plus must also deal squarely with regional security challenges. This includes maritime security in the South China Sea, to nuclear and security threats on the Korean Peninsula, as well as transnational security threats, such as terrorism, cybercrimes, hostile information campaigns, climate change and humanitarian disasters.
Open Channels of Communication
Our defence establishments and militaries must engage. It is vital that we do so to reduce the risk of miscalculations and mishaps. For this coming decade, the most important task for all security chiefs is to avoid a physical conflict in Asia. What has happened in Europe and the Middle East must never occur here. Simultaneous conflicts in Asia, Europe and the Middle East will be catastrophic for our World. A physical conflict in Asia, whatever the rationale, whatever the precipitating cause, will be devastating. We must do all we can to avoid it.
Processes to settle disputes, avoid and de-escalate clashes are necessary tools to avoid conflict. To this end, ADMM has adopted the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) and the Guidelines for Air Military Encounters (GAME). As a region, we have practised these guidelines, such as during the ASEAN-China Maritime Exercise in 2018 where CUES was employed. But for further avoidance of risks, CUES will need to be applied to paramilitary vessels, particularly coast guards.
Open channels of communication such as hotlines can make a difference especially in moments of crisis. Singapore and China signed a MOU in June this year to work towards the establishment of a secure defence telephone link. The US and China have similar bilateral defence lines established, and the hope is that both countries will find an arrangement to use them effectively. ASEAN had also operationalised an ASEAN Direct Communications Infrastructure, this was in 2017 – it is a hotline set up to allow for Defence Ministers to communicate during crises or emergencies. ASEAN has welcomed ADMM-Plus countries to join this initiative, and Japan is the first Plus country to operationalise the hotline in March this year.
US-China Relations
Beyond crisis management, one of the central conundrums for this generation, is the US-China strategic rivalry. Both US and China will continue to be economic and military powers. The differences in ideology, political and value systems will always exist between the two. In terms of geopolitical influence, the G2 scenario – where China dominates west of Guam in Asia and the US, east of Guam – is fantasy. It will never become the reality. Neither will the world be better off if either the US or China declines. We need both a strong US and a strong China if we are to effectively address global challenges. What is needed is that political commitment and hard work from both countries to improve relations. And here, we note progress in establishing meetings and hopefully a summit between President Xi and President Biden in the coming months ahead.
Singapore is confident that China has the wisdom and determination to not only keep the peace in Asia, but also lift up this and other regions as it progresses. In the past decade, China has helped many countries build infrastructure through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), such as the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed train in Indonesia and the Laos-China Railway. China has already committed to sustain these initiatives – President Xi Jinping recently announced that the key BRI lenders, the Export-Import Bank and China Development Bank, will offer an additional US$100 billion in loans. Singapore supports these efforts to develop countries in Asia to meet the hopes and aspirations of this Asian century.
What more can China do to promote stability in this region and globally? I would humbly suggest three broad tracks. First, China must continue to grow economically and further integrate its markets with the rest of the World. Economic and financial growth are strengths in themselves. Yes, it will get harder because of the prevailing climate of distrust and strategic competition. But I believe that China has indigenous strengths that it can draw from, particularly its strengths in STEM capabilities.
Second, China must continue to promote multilateralism and uphold the rule of law. That is China's greatest assurance to other nations, big or small, that China's growth is inclusive and will lift all boats – that as China grows economically and militarily, it does not seek to supplant or replace others based on its own national interests.
Third, China including the People's Liberation Army, must lead to reduce tensions in our region. Whether China accepts it or not, wants it or not, it is already seen as a dominant power and must therefore act as a benevolent one.
This morning we heard the careful elaboration of the Global Security Initiative. I make these three broad generalisations in the hope that China's progress will be seen and acted upon as a virtue rather than a threat, to promote stability in our region.
Conclusion
Since we last convened at the Xiangshan Forum in 2019, our world has become a more dangerous and divided one. Whether Asia can rise and prosper as it has done in the past two decades depends on our ability to secure the peace in this region despite growing geopolitical instability.
Thank you very much.
Read more here.
Netherlands warship stirs South China Sea
By John Victor D. Ordo?ez & Neil Banzuelo (amended)
THE NETHERLANDS plans to send one of its warships to patrol the South China Sea with the Philippines, the Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs said on Monday, amid worsening tensions between Manila and Beijing.
“We are planning to send a Dutch frigate in 2024 to the South China Sea to do its duty over there,” Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs Hanke Gerdina Johannette Bruins Slot told a news briefing near Manila, the Philippine capital. “But we haven’t decided which ports it will embark on, but that’s part of the planning,” she added.
The Dutch foreign minister’s visit to the Philippines is the first in more than 30 years.
“Any expression of support from the international community, in this case the Dutch, strengthens Philippine position in the West Philippine Sea,” Jan Robert R. Go, an associate professor of political science at the University of the Philippines, said in a Facebook Messenger chat, referring to areas of the South China Sea within the country’s exclusive economic zone.
“Any additional support in the form of joint patrols would also augment our admittedly lacking capacity. However, this may also create greater anxiety on the part of the Chinese, especially if those Dutch vessels are militarily equipped,” he added.
He cited the need for caution to stop escalating tensions. “The last thing we want is a violent confrontation and China may not hesitate in responding once challenged.”
The Philippines would eye more joint patrols and freedom of navigation missions in the South China Sea after collisions with Chinese ships at Second Tomas Shoal, Jonathan M. Malaya, assistant director general of the National Security Council, said last week. On Oct. 23, the country filed a diplomatic protest against China and summoned its envoy in Manila after the Oct. 22 collisions.
The Chinese Embassy in Manila said it had lodged stern representations to the Philippines over the “trespassing” of the Philippine vessels at Second Thomas Shoal.
China Coast Guard vessel 5203 collided with an Armed Forces of the Philippines-contracted indigenous resupply boat 13.5 nautical miles (25 kilometers) east-northeast of BRP Sierra Madre, the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea said on Oct. 22.
A Chinese maritime militia vessel had also bumped a Philippine Coast Guard patrol vessel that was escorting the resupply mission about 6.4 nautical miles northeast of the shoal, it said.
“Both our countries are committed to upholding the international law of the sea, that’s why we will work jointly to build capacity concerning the content and relevance of the law of the sea,” Ms. Bruins Slot said.
“The Netherlands stands with the Philippines in the full observance of international law in the South China Sea,” she added, reiterating the Netherlands’ support for a 2016 arbitral ruling by a United Nations-backed tribunal in the Hague that voided China’s claim to more than 80% of the waterway.
The court ruled China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone by building artificial islands and failing to prevent its citizens from fishing in the zone.
Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique A. Manalo told the same briefing the countries would also cooperate in increasing trade and investments, enhancing cyber-security and addressing the online exploitation of children.
“The Philippines and the Netherlands share the same unflinching commitment to the rules-based international order,” he said.? “The bilateral relations [have] always been anchored by our collaboration at sea, due to our common heritage as maritime nations.”
The Philippines’ top envoy said the two countries brought up ensuring the safety and security of more than 22,000 Filipino seafarers working in Dutch-owned and Dutch-flagged vessels around the world.
Ms. Bruins Slot said the Netherlands and the Philippines would explore investment deals with Dutch companies involved in agriculture and water management.
The Philippines and the Netherlands had also discussed the war between Israel and the Islamist Hamas militant group, she said, citing a need to pursue humanitarian solutions to the conflict.
Meanwhile, Philippine Ambassador to the Netherlands Jose Eduardo E. Malaya told reporters on the sidelines of the briefing the Philippine Department of Trade and Industry would also cooperate with the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs on business-to-business engagements.
“Both sides expressed a commitment to enhance economic engagements and they saw enormous potential here in the Philippines,” he said.
The ambassador cited the collaboration between San Miguel Corp. and Dutch company Royal Boskalis Westminster N.V., which is handling land development work for the New Manila International Airport project in Bulacan through its local unit Boskalis Philippines, Inc.
“It is my hope that we take our relations to new heights in the decades to come and broaden the scope of our cooperation for the mutual benefit of our two nations and peoples,” Mr. Manalo said.
Read more here.
Wang Yi: no easy path, no self-driving to San Francisco
By Zhao Yusha
When noting that China and the US agreed to work together for the meeting between the two heads of state in San Francisco, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said on Saturday that "the path to San Francisco" will not be an easy one, and there is "no self-driving to it." Therefore, both sides need to earnestly "return to Bali [consensus]," truly implement the common understanding reached by the two leaders, remove disruption, overcome obstacles, build consensus, and accumulate outcomes, Wang said.
Chinese analysts believe this signals Beijing's discontent with Washington's lack of sincerity and efforts in stabilizing China-US ties. The US recent moves of reaching out to China mainly serve for convening a grand APEC meeting, yet falls short of responding to China's core concerns, warned Chinese observers. They said Wang's comment that there is "no self-driving" to San Francisco is a reminder to the US to rein in its toxic domestic politics that are highly antagonistic of China; and that high-level communication between China and the US won't come "automatically" unless the US makes more efforts.?
Despite the various differences and contradictions between the two countries, and there are still many issues that need to be resolved, both sides believe that maintaining dialogue between the two major countries is beneficial and necessary. They both hope that bilateral relations can stabilize and strive for improvement as soon as possible, Wang, also member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, said in a discussion with members of the US strategic communityin Washington on Saturday.
Wang also held talks with representatives from US business circles in Washington on Saturday. Wang stated that the driving force for cooperation between China and the US remains strong, the foundation remains solid, and the space for cooperation remains vast.?
He expressed the hope that everyone will seize the new opportunities offered by China's high-quality development and high-level opening-up, play a role as a ballast stone in economic and trade cooperation, cultivate friendly public opinion and social foundation between the two countries.
Wang held two rounds of talks with Blinken on Thursday and Friday, during which the two sides agreed to work together toward a meeting between the two heads of state in San Francisco.
When he met with the US President Joe Biden on Friday, Wang said that his visit is aimed at communicating with the US side to follow through on the important common understandings reached by the two heads of state, and proceed from the Bali summit towards a San Francisco summit, so as to prevent bilateral ties from further deteriorating and bring the China-US relationship back on the track of healthy and steady development at an early date.
Not enough From Wang's remarks and recent news reports, it is clear that China is not satisfied with US' sincerity and efforts in improving the bilateral ties, Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times. Wu pointed out that the recent eagerness from the US to reach out to China is partly due to Biden's hope of hosting a grand APEC leaders' meeting; but the US failed to address issues concerning China's core interests.?
Via a grand meeting, Biden tries to send a signal to US' domestic audience that Biden is capable of stabilising China-US relations while engaging in intense competition with Beijing, said Wu.?
Washington did not cease its crackdown on China's tech industry. The Biden administration is reducing the types of semiconductors that American companies can sell to China, citing the desire to close loopholes in existing regulations announced last year.
Earlier this month, US media NBC reported that officials in Biden's administration have privately told lawmakers that the White House is preparing a supplemental funding request to submit to Congress that includes money for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and US border security.?
During his US visit, Wang told US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan that "Taiwan independence" is the biggest threat to peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits and the biggest challenge facing China-US relations. It must be firmly opposed with concrete policies and actions.?
Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times that the US should also rein in its toxic domestic politics that is highly confrontational against China. "The US domestic politics itself is highly confrontational, and they need to resolve internal conflicts by creating external enemies. This trend means that there will always be confrontation in US-China relations."
The US side needs to make sure that anti-China hawks won't thwart the efforts of pushing for a meeting between the two heads of state in San Francisco, Li said.?
US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell recently referred to China, Russia and Iran as the new "axis of evil" that the US must confront in an interview with the US media on October 22.
The US cannot count on setting up a time and place and hope high-level meetings between the two countries to occur "automatically," more needs to be done by the US to stabilise bilateral relations, said Wu.?
Window of opportunity The majority of people in both China and the US have rationally realized that if conflict and confrontation occur between China and the US, the world would undoubtedly face catastrophe. However, this does not mean that we can automatically avoid this worst-case scenario by adopting a "lying-flat" attitude, Chinese former ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai said at a high-level dialogueat the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Sunday.?
Since June this year, the two countries have embraced more frequent high-level exchanges, with Blinken, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and US Special Envoy on Climate Change John Kerry visiting China respectively. The most recent one is California governor Gavin Newsom, who has received a warm welcome in China as his open-mindedness on cooperation has been highly praised by the Chinese public.?
China-US economic working group held its first meeting via video link last week. The US also sent participants to the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum scheduled from Sunday to Tuesday.?
In the upcoming winter-spring flight season, the number of China-US direct regular passenger flights is expected to increase from the current 48 (24 round trips) per week to 70 per week, CAAC News reported on Saturday citing the Civil Aviation Administration of China.?
Overall, negativity still prevails positivity in terms of China-US relation since the "balloon incident" when bilateral ties froze, Da Wei, director of Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, told the Global Times, noting that now is the window of opportunity for the two to stabilize ties and prevent the relations from reaching another nadir.?
Wu said that the window of opportunity for the two countries to stabilize ties is rather short, as China will closely watch if the US will return to its reckless crackdown on China after the possible higher-level meeting. He also noted that the bilateral relations also face ordeals from the 2024 elections for Taiwan's regional leader; and next year's US election also poses a challenge as playing the "China card" is a usual tactic by presidential candidates.
Read more here.