Storms, Strikes, and Jobs in October

Welcome back to the Recruitonomics Newsletter! This week, we’re looking at the less-than-impressive October jobs report and the factors that contributed to slow recorded growth last month.?

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This Week on Recruitonomics:?

Storms and Strikes Shake Up October Jobs Report, But Weakening Continues?

The U.S. economy added 12,000 net new jobs in October, the smallest month of gains since December of 2020. This is further evidence of the very real slowing labor market, but the headline number does not tell the whole story. Survey administration was impacted by Hurricanes Milton and Helene on the East Coast, and the Boeing strike is temporarily impacting manufacturing employment. The true impact of the storms is hard to quantify, but looking at the spike in initial unemployment insurance claims in Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina shows many displaced workers. Manufacturing employment dipped by 46,000 in October, mostly a result of the strikes at Boeing and elsewhere in the industry. However, it is true that manufacturing has been slowing, hampered by the high interest rate environment. Of course, this report is not a positive sign for the labor market, even with these qualifiers. Decreases in professional and business services, driven by a sharp decline in temporary help employment, points to a slowed white-collar sector and weakness in the sector.?

Read the full article here.?

What does this mean for recruiters??

Setting aside the temporary distortions of storms and strikes, it is clear that the labor market is slowing. For recruiters in industries like staffing or manufacturing, this slowdown may be more noticeable compared to those in healthcare or construction, which still show growth. Across sectors, hiring demand has fallen sharply from its 2022 peak. However, as we look to 2025, further interest rate cuts and the post-election landscape could create a more optimistic hiring outlook.?

Recruiting Tips:?

This morning, Appcast’s Chief Economist Andrew Flowers and Economist Sam Kuhn broke down the weak jobs report, outlining the factors that contributed to low recorded job growth last month. They described what they were seeing in today’s report and broke down what it means for recruiters. Additionally, they discussed this report and the labor market in the context of the upcoming 2024 election. Finally, they took listener questions. Watch the recording today!?

Recently on Recruitonomics:

Recruitonomics Swing State Election Analysis: Arizona

Thanks to the electoral college, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election will very likely be determined by a few key swing states, divided into two distinct groups based on their demographic and economic characteristics. In the Sunbelt, three rapidly growing states – Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina – are more business-friendly and focused on construction and economic expansion (Nevada is potentially a fourth Sunbelt swing state). Residents have been unhappy with Bidenomics, which might by extension hurt Kamala Harris since voters will associate her with the previous administration. With their diverse, suburban, and significantly non-white populations, these states are now leaning more towards Donald Trump, who has championed deregulation and other pro-business sentiments. In this article, we are focused on the demographic, economic, and labor market situation of the state headed into the election, and how these factors have shaped voters’ opinions.?

Read the full article here.?

What Recruitonomics is Reading:

As we’ve explored before, employees are feeling less confident in the labor market and economy. Researchers at Revelio Labs explored the factors contributing to this decreased employee sentiment and what it means for both employers and workers:?

“What factors contribute to the decline in worker sentiment? A significant portion can be attributed to shifts in labor market conditions, including unemployment, layoffs, wages, and the availability of alternative job opportunities. Our regression analysis of employee sentiment on these labor market factors, while accounting for time trends, reveals that these forces explain roughly 80% of the drop in sentiment from 2021 to 2024. Employee sentiment tends to rise alongside increases in unemployment or layoffs. High levels of layoffs and unemployment seems to have a psychological effect on workers, leading them to appreciate their jobs more and rating their satisfaction higher. Conversely, sentiment declines as the number of job postings rises. A rise in available jobs gives workers the impression that they have more outside options, leading them to become more critical of their current jobs.”?

Read the full analysis here.?

More Data & Insights:

? Top Two Voter Priorities Intertwined: Immigration and the Economy

? Will Lower Borrowing Costs Rekindle U.S. Manufacturing Jobs?

?? Germany's Manufacturing Sector Imperiled by China Shock?

Thank you for reading! Stay tuned for next week's Recruitonomics Newsletter and check out Recruitonomics.com for more data-driven insights.