Storms are a ‘Brewin’

Ever since I was a child I have wanted to learn to sail. When I turned 40, I treated myself to a week on Sarasota Bay where I successfully completed a certification course to sail a 30-foot sailboat. Unfortunately, I haven’t stepped foot on a sailboat since.

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My captain / teacher for the week was a seasoned veteran by the name of Jerry. Jerry had spent most of his life on the water and I gathered he taught these classes on occasion as a break from the charter life on open water. The Bay was much calmer than the Gulf and his clientele eager to learn and take direction. I picked up quickly that while this was not Jerry’s main gig, it was a refreshing break from the norm.

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Each afternoon, after a few hours of class work, we would set out and practice what we learned for the day. It was fun and exciting but much more work than I ever anticipated. I don’t ever recall Jimmy Buffet singing about how one can lose an eye or more if a Jibe isn’t handled correctly or how bad it hurts to whack your knee on a cleat. I digress.

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One afternoon we were heading towards Tampa Bay attempting to circle right before the Sunshine Skyway. It was a beautiful day and if I recall, I had handled most of the sailing that afternoon feeling quite salty if I do say so myself. All of a sudden, out of nowhere, Cap’n Jerry informed me that it was time to Jibe and head home, with a sense of urgency in his voice that was more than noticeable. “What’s up Cap’n?” I said as I prepped to pull in the mainsail and call out my required notice “Ready to Jibe?”?“Weather” he said “Looks like we got a dozie on the horizon and it’s time to head back”

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Needless to say, I thought Cap’n Jerry may have lost his anchor as I looked out, back towards the Gulf and saw nothing but blue skies. Nonetheless it was “Jibe Ho” and away we went back towards our port.

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Moments later Cap’n Jerry instructed me to pull in the sails as he wanted to motor in. His urgency had increased and for the life of me, I still could not figure out why. The sun was shining, I didn’t see a cloud in the sky and if I had my way, we would have enjoyed an afternoon of sailing and swapping stories.

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Then it happened. Within what felt like seconds, the temperature dropped what had to be more than 10 degrees and out of nowhere, the sky became dark. I was at a loss for words as we approached our dock and what felt like sleet covered every inch of our boat and any dry clothing we had. As I assisted in tying up the boat, I looked out to where we had been only minutes before to see one of the roughest seas I’d seen in my life. I was never more happy to be on dry land.

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Normally, we’d shake hands and part our ways for the evening but this time I wanted to thank Cap’n Jerry who was happy to let me buy him a beer.

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“How did you know?” I asked.

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“The clouds” he said. “They were on the horizon and had a look like a storm was coming in. Storms are always around the corner” Jerry said.

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“The clouds” I repeated. Almost in disbelief as those same clouds I looked at showed not a single sign of concern for me and looked like any normal day. I was grateful for Cap’n Jerry.

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As stocks hit fresh highs, I find myself wondering what will be the next storm I’m writing about. Will it be conflict in the Middle East or further escalation with Russia and Ukraine? Will it be an?earnings leak out of a semiconductor?like we’re seeing today that hints at a slowdown or will it be an inflationary report that sparks a concern with interest rates of the Fed? Will it be delayed election results as Pennsylvania counts ballots by hand and keeps the country in suspense with their 19 electoral college votes? Or will it be something we’re not even aware of just yet, brewing on the horizon prepping to?sweep in and catch investors off guard with a new round of volatility, fear and emotion?

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While I prepare to enter my 25th year in this business there is one thing I have learned. Around every corner is another storm. While we enjoy market highs today and bountiful portfolio gains, you can also rest assured that at some point in the future I will be writing to calm the fears and quell the emotion. It may be something we’re well versed in or a topic we must become educated in very quickly. Whatever it is, we think it will knock stocks down, increase fear and damage those who have become too careless, reckless or both.

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Unlike the novice sailor, in this role I play the seasoned Cap’n. While I’m enjoying the sunshine and calm waters, I’m always on the lookout and can see some storms brewing on the horizon. You won’t hear panic or urgency in my voice, nor will I ask you to Jibe Ho, but let’s not get too cozy in the sun and remember that to enjoy the calm seas, we may also have to navigate some rough waters.

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Until next time

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~ Quint Tatro

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