Stop Measuring Your 'Brand Strangers'

Every once in a while I will get a challenge from a client that we internally call ‘measuring brand strangers.’? The challenge might sound something like “We are really interested in understanding those who aren’t our customers and don’t know about us.”

Typically, my response to this challenge is:? “…Sooooo, why?”

I mean, I get it.? Most organizations only have a single-digit market share.? That means, in their minds, there is at least 90% more market to grab, which seems like an endless ocean of opportunity.? Unfortunately, this wide-eyed perspective, called the Optimism Bias, is unrealistic, and pursuing it can lead to significant time and capital waste.

The Opportunity Illusion of Brand Strangers

We refer to Brand Strangers as “strangers” for a reason – they have yet to engage with your brand. They may not have an immediate need for your product or service or they might already have a satisfactory alternative making it challenging to win them over. Furthermore, they are unfamiliar with your brand’s story, value, and the reasons they should choose you over competitors. This inherent disconnect makes them less likely to convert into paying customers, especially in the short term.

The Optimism Bias?

The Optimism Bias is the tendency to believe that we are less likely to encounter negative events and more likely to experience positive ones. In marketing and advertising, this bias can appear in various forms (none of them good), but, in this case, it might lead to the mistaken belief that there is a huge, untapped market eagerly waiting to discover your brand and buy your product or service.

The reality is that your easiest sales come from consumers who are already your customers or are already in consideration for your product or service. These consumers who are in consideration have what is sometimes called a Self-Selection Bias and are the easiest customers to convert and the most important prospects for you to measure.

The Self-Selection Bias

The Self-Selection Bias is when a consumer is already naturally interested or predisposed to a particular product or service and actively seeks it out.? Self-Selction Bias consumers are the first customers to react.? They buy quickly because they are waiting for us to align with their interests.? They are more likely to sign up for newsletters, attend a webinar, or follow you on social media and have the least resistance to becoming a customer.??

Focusing on measuring customers who have already self-selected your brand, product or service is the best way to understand how to move a customer through your funnel.? Once you better understand this audience you can find ways to repeat them in the general population?

The Immediate ROI of known audiences

Your existing customers and those on the periphery of your brand are already familiar with your offerings, making them a rich source of valuable insights. Conducting market research within this group provides immediate, actionable feedback that can help you refine your products and adjust your marketing strategies. By focusing on this audience, you can drive sales and increase product adoption more quickly, as these individuals are more receptive to your brand’s messages and improvements.

It’s tempting to cast a wide net and focus on brand strangers, driven by the Optimism Bias that suggests vast untapped potential markets. However, targeting and measuring Brand Strangers will most likely lead to limited returns. Instead, directing your efforts toward audiences who exhibit Self-Selection Bias—those who are already interested in or familiar with your brand—can yield more fruitful results. These individuals are easier to convert because they are actively seeking solutions that align with what you offer. Ultimately, this targeted focus not only maximizes revenue in the short term but also builds a foundation for sustainable growth by nurturing a loyal customer base that truly understands and values your brand.