Stop this madness

This post will raise some controversial issues, but please hear me out. I have a general rule that I do not comment complex political or religious issues on social media (i.e. in public). They are complex for a reason, most of us do not have the background and knowledge to assess situations, and I may be too biased to enter a discussion. The tensions between Russia and Ukraine, or, more specific, between Russia and the West over Ukraine, is one of such complex issues. Or it was, before it turned into a very easy decision on who’s right and who’s wrong, when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. You just don’t invade your neighbor when you disagree how it handles its internal affairs, and if it is not threatening you. This is a line you do not cross, period.?So, I think it is time to comment.

I have lived in Russia a couple of years during Soviet times, and I live and work here more or less permanently since 1995. I love this country, and I love the people of this country. I have been to Ukraine numerous times, and I love the country and its people. Even more, I have people there that are basically family. And I have considered the thought to move there and open a business a couple of times. So, this is as close to home as it can get. To be absolutely open, I never considered Putin to be the boogeyman they painted him outside of Russia. I just think that he has outlived his purpose 10 years ago. No politician should rule a country more than 10 years, otherwise we should call it a monarchy. I wasn’t very fond with who the Ukrainians elected as their presidents in the last 10-15 years, either. But that’s not for me to decide, as it is not for me to decide in Russia (I can’t vote neither in Russia nor in Ukraine). Until Thursday this week I thought that all that hustle between Russia and the West is mainly testing how far it can go on the side of Russia and fearmongering in the West to keep the military-industry-complex happy (on both sides), all at the expense of Ukraine. I thought that Putin wouldn’t go that far as to really invade Ukraine. Boy was I wrong.

We now have a war in Europe, something I thought would be a thing of the past. The 20th century should have taught us some lessons, especially Russia, which has suffered the most (then together with Ukraine and the rest of the Soviet Union). War was something that happened elsewhere. And now we have to explain to our kids why happened what happened, and what to expect. My son, who was born after the last war in Europe, asked me if we are on the brink of WW III. And I honestly can’t give a definitive answer, because everything I thought was written in stone is under question again. The demise of the Soviet Union might have been a tragedy for some of the older generation, but it marked the start of an era where we didn’t have to fear nuclear annihilation anymore. Or so we thought.

Now the country with the most nuclear missiles is waging war, and on day 4 it doesn’t look good for Putin. It is hard to get an objective picture on the internet, but from what I see and hear from trusted sources, Russia grossly underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainian people. The Ukrainian army may be underpowered, but people know that they are defending their country, and nothing can beat that spirit (again, Russia should have remembered WW II). Putin underestimated the Ukrainian president. As I said, before the war I haven’t been impressed with Zelensky. But he rose to the occasion, and he looks much better now than Putin who is afraid to sit closer than 20 meters to his closest allies. He also underestimated the reaction from the West. It took some time, but finally real measures kick in. Maybe it is the support Ukraine got from millions of ordinary people, maybe it dawned on some European politicians that Ukraine may not be the last target on Putin’s list if they don’t show unity. He wants to reinstate the Soviet Union, and the influence of the Soviet Union didn’t stop at the Ukrainian border. I am all for de-escalation and peaceful conflict resolution. But there is a war now, and tanks and planes are not fought with your thoughts and prayers, or by changing your avatar on Facebook.

So, what can be done?

Donate money. That’s the obvious choice – fending off a foreign army is costly. The Ukrainian army has some options to donate directly: wire transfer (https://bit.ly/supportUA-IBAN), credit card (https://www.portmone.com.ua/earmy), crypto (https://twitter.com/fedorovmykhailo/status/1497549813205848068?s=21). If you don’t want to donate to armed forces for ethical reasons, here’s a resource with multiple links to organizations that help in non-violent ways (https://linktr.ee/razomforukraine?mc_cid=bb70f2a056&mc_eid=dd036540e4)

Help those who left the war zone (mostly women and children) to find shelter. There are several initiatives that organize help for refugees. Past experience with refugee crises shows that you can’t trust your government with organizing stuff like this in a timely and orderly fashion. And don’t let countries like Poland take all the brunt. It is admirable that Poland is ready to take in up to 4 million refugees, but this will put a strain on the economy of one country.

Put pressure on Putin where it hurts. It should be clear by now that he couldn’t care less about what is said about him outside of Russia. He wears this critique like a badge of honor. He cares about how he is seen in Russia, as the savior that returned the country back to international power. Seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs doesn’t make him weaker. He doesn’t give a ff on their feelings, and they do not order him around since 2005. Also, if someone made his money in the 90-ies in Russia, they know 20 ways around any obstacles. Let them keep their money but send them back to Russia. Same with the kids of government officials that are studying in the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy etc. Send them back to Russia. This is much more effective than sanctions that will hit the economy in general – Putin will not suffer from it. He will use it for railing up Russians against a common enemy.

Boycott prestige projects of the Russian government. Like MIT did with its partnership with Skolkovo. Don’t participate in large sporting events in Russia, like the Formula 1, and don’t give such events to Russia. The underlying message with such events for Putin is always “I organized this for you”. Get rid of state-owned sponsors, like Gazprom. You can’t hit him with political or general economic measures. The Russians can out-suffer anyone in Europe or the US. You can only destroy the myth that he is the builder of the modern Russia in the eyes of the people. Because he only fears his own people. The senseless war with Ukraine will already open the eyes of many Russians that so far have been loyal to Putin. People should understand that all Putin achieved by starting this war is

• Bringing Western and Eastern Ukraine together against a common enemy
• Destroying normal relationships between Russians and Ukrainians for years to come
• Substantially increase military spending in Europe and, quite possibly, drive Sweden and Finland into NATO (the armament race in the 80-ies was one of the reasons the Soviet Union crumbled)
• Put a strain on all relationships with Russia, even if the partners have been friendly towards Russia
• Push Europe towards more energy independence from Russia

In return, he will gain almost nothing. Even if Ukraine falls, which is becoming more and more unlikely (unless Russia employs weapons of mass destruction), it will be a constant nightmare. Russia couldn’t win the war with Chechnya. The only way out of this misery was to install a puppet and shower them with money. To repeat the same with Ukraine will be much harder and much costlier.

I hope that the war will end as soon as possible. Every day, lives are lost on both sides. This madness must stop. There is still a way out. And I hope that ordinary Ukrainians and Russians will be able to talk to each other again without feeling anger, hate and fear.