Stocks surge to best month of 2024 after Trump win, but Fed's next move awaits
Sarah Cottle
Growth-Focused Executive | GM | Driving Profitability & Operational Excellence in B2B Data, Research, Advisory | M&A Integration | Governance | Digital Transformation | Trusted C-Suite Advisor | Board Member
The S&P 500 recorded its best one-month performance in November, rising 5.7% due to a post-election stock bump that lifted markets broadly. Gains were even higher for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which surged 7.5%, and the small-cap Russell 2000, which increased by 10.8%. The market upturn followed a down October, which halted a previous string of monthly gains. Market volatility had spiked ahead of the US presidential election but receded after President-elect Donald Trump's victory.
As the month drew to a close, bank stocks returned to growth after a two-week decline, with analysts optimistic about further valuation increases. From Nov. 20 to Nov. 27, bank stocks outperformed the broader market, with the KBW Nasdaq Bank index up 3.7% compared to the S&P 500's 1.4% rise. The median price to adjusted tangible book value for the 211 banks in an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis reached 155.1% by Nov. 29, marking the highest month-end valuation in 2024. Bank stocks rallied amid market expectations of reduced regulation in 2025 under the Trump administration, including a more supportive regime for M&A activity.
Markets will now turn their focus to the Federal Reserve, which could lower rates again this month following cuts at its last two meetings. The Fed is expected to update its economic projections on Dec. 17–18, with previous projections suggesting a 3.4% benchmark rate by the end of 2025. However, persistent inflation, a resilient job market and a new Trump administration have clouded this outlook. Market watchers expect the next Fed projections to show a view of higher rates for longer.
The Fed's path forward will largely depend on what policies the Trump administration moves on first and how they are implemented, said Satyam Panday, a senior economist in the global economics and research group at S&P Global Ratings.
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Deep Dives
In-depth features looking at the impact of major news developments in key industries.
Financials
US banks' efficiency ratios decrease slightly in Q3??????????
As net interest income and noninterest expense rose, noninterest income fell, keeping efficiency ratios just under steady across the US banking industry in the third quarter.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Commercial real estate worries fading even as delinquencies mount
Delinquencies increased to 1.48% of loans in the third quarter and high medium-term interest rates are continuing to pressure borrowers. However, banks have been building credit loss reserves and cutting exposure.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Italian banks navigate M&A landscape with strong Q3 results
Third-quarter net profit at the country's five largest banks rose year over year, giving them the firepower to pursue M&A as a way to grow in size and boost competitiveness.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Australian banks rely on capital to offset margin pressures, profit declines
Australia's big banks posted lower annual profits and mixed net interest margins as they faced rising costs, competitive pressures and stable credit profiles, with some lenders showing improvement in the second fiscal half.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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Insurance
Financials Research: Private auto moves past its inflection point — strategically and financially???????
Recent results underscore the swiftness of the private auto business's transition from famine to feast, according to the 2024 US Auto Insurance Market Report, but the effects of heightened competition could soon emerge in financial statements.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Rapidly shrinking Citizens Property projects largest full-year underwriting loss
The Florida state-run insurer is making considerable progress in efforts to reduce its total exposure through various initiatives to move risk into the private market at the same time its income statement absorbs the impact of multiple hurricanes.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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Real Estate
Overall sentiment on REIT earnings calls improves
The net positivity transcript sentiment score for all US real estate investment trusts was 0.96% for the third quarter, a median increase of 11 basis points compared to the average score of the prior four quarters.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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Credit and Markets
Top five economic takeaways from November's manufacturing PMI data as tariffs loom
The global manufacturing sector stabilized in November after four months of modest declines as improved business conditions in mainland China and the rest of Asia contrasted with a deepening downturn in the eurozone.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Institutional investors extend NVIDIA stock sell-off in Q3???????????
Institutions sold a net 108.3 million shares of NVIDIA throughout the quarter as the AI chipmaker's shares dipped about 2%.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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Energy and Utilities
Wind share of US total generation remains at 10% in 2023
The share of US wind generation in 2023 remained nearly the same as 2022 levels as it accounted for 10.0% penetration compared to 10.2% penetration in 2022.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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Technology, Media and Telecommunications
451 Research: Generative AI Digest: A shift to the application layer
Major GenAI players are targeting the opportunity presented by AI agents, while model providers are enhancing their enterprise chat products, building compelling user experiences and encouraging more robust application development on their platforms.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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Metals and Mining
Top zinc producers' Q3 2024 output rises 4.8% YOY
The top 20 companies that report zinc production data had output totaling 1.27 million metric tons in the September quarter, up from 1.2 million metric tons year over year.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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October drill hits: Canadian uranium exploration produces top-ranked intercept
CanAlaska Uranium hit high-grade uranium at West McArthur in Canada, while Solaris reported a long copper-mineralized intercept at Warintza in Ecuador.
—Read more on S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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The Week in M&A
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BlackRock buying credit investment manager HPS in $12B deal
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EQT, Oneok announcements push oil, gas deals to $192B YTD
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More PE capital in fintech but fewer deals
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Fortress buys majority stake in Gyptech
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The Big Number
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Trending
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