Stocks Signal Confirmation & Impending Culmination; January 10th Signal Augurs Imminent Spike Lows. Forex & Interest Rates Concur
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January 12, 2025
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January 11, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay:
Bonds & Notes Portend Intermediate Low.? Interest Rate, Forex & Energy Cycles Converge on January 10/13th as Stocks are Poised for Spike Low & Rebound.?
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Multiple Indicators Signal Imminent Reversals; Culmination of Initial Moves & Confirmation of Larger Ones...
01-11-25 - “Stock indexes peaked on Jan 6th, precisely fulfilling expectations stemming from their intermediate cycle low on Dec 19th.? That was/is projected to spur another sharp sell-off that should initially spike lower in the coming week…
The DJIA, S+P 500 & Russell 2000 turned their weekly trends down, corroborating the outlook for an initial spike low in the coming week (as part of a larger overall decline). Bonds & Notes (as well as Euro) are poised for final spike lows as the Dollar is poised for a final spike high…
Stock Indices reversed lower after bouncing precisely into January 6th, fulfilling upside price AND timing projections in the DJTA, Russell 2000 and S+P Midcap 400.? The DJIA, S+P 500 NQ-100 had already completed their rebounds on Dec. 26th and set lower highs on January 6th.
That was the ideal time for a secondary high and ushered in the second Danger Zone since the late-November ’24 cycle peak.? The first was from early-December into December 19/20th.
Initially, this Danger Zone stretches into/through the coming week even though these declines could last into February or even March/April ’25.
The January 6th peak also fulfilled the ideal time for a rebound peak based on the daily trends and intra-month trends in line with the open range of the month and the ideal time for an intra-month high.?
It was also the perfect time for a rebound peak based on the declining daily 21 Low MACs and the upside price targets for those indexes… all of which were hit on January 6th.
(The S+P Midcap was projected to spike a little higher into January 6th and test 3180 - 3200/IDX before a new sell-off.? Corresponding upside targets and declining daily 21 Low MACs were at 43,100 - 43,300/DJIA, 2310 - 2320/QRH & 16,200 - 16,400/ DJTA… and all hit on Jan 6th).?
The NQ-100 had related targets & resistance levels at 21,866 - 21,940/NQH that created the potential for an outside-week/2 Close Reversal Combo lower IF the NQ-100 dropped and closed below 21,516/NQH on Jan 10, 2025.? That is exactly what it did with the DJIA, S+P 500, S+P 400 & Russell 2000 also generating outside-week/2 Close Reversals lower.
The January 6th high also reinforced he DJTA outlook for an overall drop into Feb 10 - 21, 2025 - peaking at the midpoint of its projected ~12-week decline and creating a reinforcing ~6-week high-high-(low; Feb 17 - 21, ‘25) Cycle Progression…
Stock Indices fulfilled the intermediate and intra-month outlook for rebound highs to take hold on Jan 6th and usher in a sharp sell-off.? The January 6th high likely ushered in a 40-day ‘period of testing’ for many of these equity indexes - lasting into the middle part of February ‘25.
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Interest Rates
Bonds & Notes continue to decline from their early-December highs - highs that fulfilled a group of converging indicators and an ~11-week Cycle Progression.?
The ensuing decline was/is likely to last for half of that cycle and extend these declines into the middle portion of January - ideally bottoming between Jan 10 - 20th.? That has initially been fulfilled but more downside is still possible in the coming week (possibly linked to PPI or CPI data)…?
A low during the coming week would complete successive declines of equal duration with the Sept ’24 - Jan ’25 decline matching the Dec ’23 - April ’24 decline (both 18 weeks in duration)…?
On balance, they were expected to extend these declines into the week of Jan 13 - 17, ’25 and fulfill a ~2-month high (Sept 17) - low (Nov 15/18) - (low; Jan 14 - 17, ’25) Cycle Progression and a corroborating ~3-week cycle in Bonds & Notes.? They are on the cusp of fulfilling that…
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Currencies
The Dollar Index remains bullish and is fulfilling the 2 - 3 month outlook for an overall rally into - and a multi-month top during - January ’25.?
This comes after it set a 3 - 6 month (or longer) low in late-September ’24 low - the latest phase of a ~3.25-year/~39 - 40 month cycle that has governed the Dollar Index for 3 - 4 decades.
The Dollar Index has initially fulfilled this upside potential but could wait until mid-January before setting a final peak.?
A peak in the coming ~week would complete back-to-back advances of equal duration (16 weeks each) while perpetuating an ~8-week cycle that has created a low-low-high-low-high Cycle Sequence and could/should create a successive high on January 10 - 17, ’25.
The Euro is negative and is fulfilling the outlook for an overall decline into January ’25, when a multi-month low is most likely.? A low at any time in this 2-month period would perpetuate a 28 - 29-month high-high-low-low-(low; Jan/Feb ’25) Cycle Progression.?
Since mid-June, the Euro has also adhered to a ~5-week cycle - creating a ~5-week low-high-high-high-high-high Cycle Progression with the latest phase fulfilled at the Dec 6th peak.? That has spurred a ~5-week decline into the current time frame (Jan 6 - 13, ’25) - when a multi-week low is a higher probability.
The Yen headed progressively lower during December and fulfilled the potential to spike down to its July 2024 low…
The Dollar Index has extended its advance into January ’25 as the Euro & Yen have declined.? Daily cycles could extend these trends into Jan 13... but the Yen has given an initial sign of a low with an outside-day/2 Close Reversal higher on January 10th.?
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Additional upside is needed to confirm a bottom and project a quick, sharp rally (possible ‘flight to quality’??) in the Yen.”? TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!?? -- January 11, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay
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Weekly Trend Indicator
INSIIDE Track’s weekly trend indicator is a lagging/confirming indicator that usually reverses at the culmination of an initial move.? In the case of the DJIA, S+P 500 & Russell 2000, those indicators just turned their weekly trends down - reinforcing the outlook for an initial low on January 13 - 17, 2025 followed by a reactive bounce.
Far more important is what those indicators foretell about the coming weeks & months.
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4-Shadow Indicator
At the same time, several stock indexes are poised to trigger 4-Shadow Signals - another lagging indicator that usually signals in initial low, followed by a reactive rally, and then a larger overall decline.
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Interest Rates, Dollar, Euro, Yen & Energy Cycles
Reinforcing the significance of the current time frame, cycles and timing indicators in Bonds & Notes, the Dollar Index & Euro, Crude & Natural Gas, and Gold & Silver are all converging at this time… with the greatest synergy of cycles surrounding January 13th.? Corroborating that, the Japanese Yen just triggered an important reversal signal on January 10th - ushering in this intermediate reversal time frame.
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The PPI/CPI Conundrum
Once again, interest rates and stocks are poised to bottom on - or within days of - the latest PPI & CPI inflation data.? From the current vantagepoint, it appears that data could help spur these reversals (higher in stocks, bonds, Euro & Yen and lower in Dollar Index).? The January 11, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay elaborates on that and related topics.
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January 13 - 17th 2025 Poised to Fulfill Important Trends & Usher in Reactive Moves.
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See previous Linkedin articles for corresponding analysis:
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Also, refer to:
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Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
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TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
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